- Under Hue Jackson, the Browns underachieved based on turnover margin in the 1H of 2018
- Kitchen’s effective use of 12 personnel was a dramatic shift from early in 2018
- The Browns Vegas win total is in line with projections
The 2018 season for the Cleveland Browns was a tale of two seasons. Under Hue Jackson, the Browns somehow only went 2-5-1 while sporting the No. 1 turnover margin in the NFL at 11, or plus-1.4 per game. Since 1990, there have been 42 teams with a turnover margin of at least 1.4 per game in the first eight weeks of a season and the 2018 Browns under Jackson are the only team to be under .500.
In aggregate, these teams won 75% of their games in the first eight of the season. Not only did the Browns start the season under .500 they were 3 games under .500. In Week 1, the Browns tied the Steelers even though they had a plus-5 turnover advantage. Since 1990, teams with a plus-5 margin won 97% of these games (205-7-1). In addition, in Week 7 the Browns had a plus-3 turnover margin over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lost in overtime.
Over the last 10 years, NFL teams have a 95% win percentage while winning the turnover battle by at least 3, like the Browns. After Hue was fired, the Browns ended the season with a minus-3 turnover margin but went 5-3. Hue Jackson was next level incompetent when you consider just these stats alone.
In the first seven weeks under Hue Jackson, the Browns struggled on offense, ranked 27th and 30th in run and success rates. The Browns were equally as bad specifically on early downs. However, once Hue was fired, the Browns offense increased its efficiency and explosiveness by leaps and bounds. From Week 8 on, the Browns ranked eighth in run success rate and fifth in pass success rate while having the sixth most explosive plays in the NFL. On early downs, with Freddie Kitchens running the offense, the Browns ranked sixth and fourth in run and success rates.
2018 Browns Ranks