Week 6 Thursday Night Football Betting Guide: Giants at Patriots

NY Giants Offense vs NE Defense:

• This is ugly. Without Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepherd, I have no clue how the Giants will score. 
• Daniel Jones’s top two targets tonight will be Golden Tate and Darius Slayton.
• The Patriots defense is No. 1 in the NFL in allowing only 4.4 plays per drive this season. Their schedule of offenses has been crazy easy, and their opponents currently rank 22, 27, 29, 30, and 32nd in the offensive plays per drive.
• The Patriots have allowed an aggregate schedule of opponents that typically average 5.19 plays per drive to only run 4.4 per drive
• The Giants are 15th in plays per drive but have played four teams that rank in the bottom 12 in most plays per drive allowed. Don’t expect the Giants to come anywhere near the number of plays tonight.
• Not much more needs to be said about this New England defense but they currently are No. 1 in DVOA defense and have one of the best defensive ratings of all time.
• Their pass defense ranks second and rush defense is third in the NFL by DVOA.
• New England is top 10 in allowing the lowest target share to RBs and TEs but have allowed the highest target share to WRs. However, they have allowed the lowest yards per target to those WRs.
• What is interesting is they have allowed the ninth-lowest target share to opposing RBs while facing two teams that rank in the top 10 and four teams in the top 15 in target share to RBs. They truly don’t allow teams to throw to their RBs. For a rookie QB on a short week like Jones, I wouldn’t expect the Patriots to allow many dump-offs to his RBs.
• So, I’d expect Slayton and Tate to get lots of targets, albeit most likely extremely unsuccessful and probably empty ones.
• This is amazing but New England has only allowed two offensive TDs this season and both came on the ground. The Patriots have not allowed a passing TD in the last six regular season games, going back to Week 17 last year.
• With their top two RBs out tonight, the Giants will go with Jon Hilliman. Hilliman has been awful so far with only 53 yards on 19 carries (2.8 ypc) and a 47% success rate. That success rate ranks 35th among RBs.

NE Patriots Offense vs NY Giants Defense:

• The Patriots offense has been good but not great this season, ranking eighth in DVOA. The pass offense sits at sixth but their run offense ranks 17th.
• New England has faced three top 10 defenses in Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and the Jets. They also have faced two bad defenses in the Redskins and Dolphins who rank 29th and 32nd in DVOA, respectively.
• The Giants defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, 29th against the pass and 12th against the run.
• The Giants pass defense has allowed a schedule of pass offenses that in aggregate have averaged 7.3 yards per attempt to throw for 9.1. This 24% premium to opponents’ average ranks as second-worst in the NFL, only ahead of Miami. Against the three best pass offenses they have faced in Dallas, Tampa and Minnesota, the Giants pass defense has allowed 12.7, 10.3, and 11.3 yards per attempt, respectively. Yikes.
• Considering New England ranks 11th in yards per attempt through the air, Tom Brady could have a field day.
• We know the Patriots love targeting RBs out of the backfield, especially James White and they currently rank first in the NFL in RB target share in one-score game situations.
• The Giants have allowed the fourth-lowest target share to RBs but that’s only because their pass defense against WRs have been so atrocious that teams don’t bother dumping the ball off short.
• The Giants have, however, allowed the highest yards per attempt to RBs at 9.8 when those throws are completed.
• NY has faced two offenses that rank in the top 7 in target share to RBs, in Washington and Minnesota, and allowed 13 targets, 12 receptions and 155 yards (11.9 ypa) to those RBs.
• Brady will be able to pick whatever receiver or RB he wants to throw to tonight.

ATS Side I like tonight: New England -17 -110 (5dimes):

I have gone 5-0 ats on TNF this season so a lot of pressure to get this right. Like I need any more ammo against Jones and this Giants team, but since 2009 rookie QBs making a start in New England are 0-12 and have lost by an average of 19 points per game. The only QBs to throw for more than 235 yards are Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson.

It’s hard to imagine Jones having any success at all tonight on a short week and without his top three weapons. I typically would never lay so many points with a favorite, but the Patriots don’t follow any of the rules or trends. This matchup is just too good. I will go with New England 33-9 tonight.