In last week’s article, we discussed taking advantage of the time just after the NFL Draft to gain as much value as possible in a short window, especially the rookies.
This week, I will look at the settled landing spots of the top 25 rookies by ADP including my detailed thoughts and target exposure percentage.
Top 25 Rookies in Best Ball Drafts
|Player||Best Ball ADP||ADP Range||Thoughts||Exposure|
|Bijan Robinson||1.7||RB2 ahead of Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler||The field has moved him up four to five spots. but I think there is a real chance Arthur Smith is not smart enough to give Bijan the big workload this ADP needs. That being said, I don't think you can fade someone with his talent running behind a very good offensive line in a run-heavy offense.||8-12%|
|Jahmyr Gibbs||4.1||RB13 Behind Travis Etienne, ahead of Najee Harris and Ken Walker||A tremendous landing spot, but he still has questions as it relates to running between the tackles, red zone usage (he wasn't even on the field much in college in the red zone), and about David Montgomery, who I think is still going to be heavily involved including the passing game. I understand this is not going to be a popular take.||4-8%|
|Jaxon Smith-Njigba||5.1||WR29 ahead of Tyler Lockett and in a very good RB area of the draft||Poor landing spot, and his ADP hasn't fallen much yet. He also missed most of last season, which could set him back early. He is still going ahead of Tyler Lockett! There is no interest for me at this ADP. I bet he is three to four rounds later by kickoff without an injury to Lockett or DK Metcalf.||0-1%|
|Jordan Addison||7.3||WR35 Behind Mike Evans and ahead of Hollywood Brown& Treylon Burks||As a rookie playing with the top player in all of fantasy, I think this is an aggressive ADP. He is going ahead of Hollywood Brown, Treylon Burks, and Darren Waller. I will mix him in only when he falls.||3-5%|
|Anthony Richardson||8.2||QB11 between Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa||I like Richardson and was hoping to take a lot of him, but this is a very aggressive ADP for a player many think (not I) will start the year on the bench. I will for now only draft him in two-quarterback builds with the premise on those teams that he crushes. Your leverage is the other teams he won't be on. I will stay low early hoping camp news of him being the No. 2 will open up a buying window.||6-9%|
|Quinton Johnston||8.4||WR43 Behind Jahan Dotson ahead of Courtland Sutton and Michael Thomas||Not an ideal landing spot for best ball and a raw player. Notice a trend? The rookies with first-round draft capital are all going very high. For now, Johnston will be in play for me primarily in Herbert stacks only as he really needs an injury to unlock his potential.||3-5%|
|Zay Flowers||8.1||WR45 between Sutton and Thomas||Another rookie that I wish was a little later and will primarily use in stacks at ADP.||3-5%|
|Zach Charbonnet||9.5||RB31 Behind Alvin Kamara ahead of A.J. Dillon/Alexander Mattison/Rashaad Penny||What am I missing here? Finished the pre-draft season in this same ADP range and ended up in one of the worst possible spots he could. I like the player and don't want zero but will only take him for now on drops.||1-5%|
|Devon Achane||10.4||RB36 Behind Penny and ahead of 2 other RB I like Damien Harris and Samaje Perine||He is a great fit on a high-caliber offense that has two mediocre veterans ahead of him. Still an aggressive ADP, but he is a guy I am attacking as the fourth running back on five running back builds for his immense spike week upside, which we want for the tournament weeks.||10-15%|
|Dalton Kincaid||11.2||TE11 ahead of Dalton Schultz/Cole Kmet||A lot of assuming going into this ADP as Dawson Knox is still there and there are other slot receivers as well. Add in that rookie tight ends often start slow, and he is mostly a stack with Josh Allen for me.||2-5%|
|Jalin Hyatt||12.2||WR59 between Adam Thielen/Jonathan Mingo||A nice target for me as he has a legitimate chance to be the No. 1 receiver in New York. While there are questions, his profile as a burner with upside is perfect for these rounds.||8-15%|
|Jonathan Mingo||12.3||WR60 between Jalin Hyatt and K.J. Osborn and Rashee Rice||Very similar to Hyatt with higher draft capital but even less of a standout college career. The price versus opportunity is very good.||8-12%|
|Rashee Rice||12.6||WR62 between Mingo and Romeo Doubs||The fact that he is behind Hyatt and Mingo despite the draft capital and landing spot says a lot about what the field thinks about his ability. Another guy you don't want to be light on at ADP.||8-12%|
|Bryce Young||13.7||QB22 between Jordan Love and Trey Lance||I am not going to draft much of rookie quarterbacks on bad offenses without legitimate running chops.||2-4%|
|Michael Mayer||14.1||TE20 between Tyler Higbee and Irv Smith||Good landing spot and talented enough to be a factor year one. I gave a wide range as a lot depends on when you add tight ends in general.||4-10%|
|Chase Brown||14.11||RB53 between Devin Singletary and Tank Bigsby||Great landing spot but terrible draft capital. Worth mixing in as Mixon could have age and legal troubles interfere with his season, but I would not be shocked if a vet like Kareem Hunt is added here.||4-6%|
|C.J. Stroud||15.2||QB25 between Matthew Stafford and Kenny Pickett||I am higher on Stroud than Young, but what I wrote about Young applies. Stroud is cheaper than Young with a worse defense and we like playing from behind in fantasy.||4-8%|
|Josh Downs||15.3||WR72 between Wan'Dale and Rondale (hey that rhymes)||I have him much closer in talent to Zay Flowers than his draft capital or ADP suggests. He is the type of rookie you want to be heavy on.||12-20%|
|Tank Bigsby||15.5||RB54 between Chase Brown and Tyjae Spears||Bigsby has a better floor than Chase Brown and good upside as well in an up and coming offense.||10-20%|
|Sam LaPorta||15.6||TE23 between Gerald Everett and MIke Gesicki||I have some later tight ends I really like, and there is some concern Detroit couldn't get T.J. Hockenson going. Still, LaPorta is certainly someone to mix in at ADP.||6-8%|
|Tyjae Spears||15.9||RB55 in between Bigsby and Kenneth Gainwell||His knee concerns dropped him in the real draft and two to three rounds down fantasy draft boards despite a fantastic landing spot behind an aging running back in an offense that lacks electric playmakers like Spears. While his injury is a long-term concern, I don't think it should affect his best ball ADP. He is my favorite player on the board period right now. I expect once daily camp reports come out he will be an 11th- or 12th-round pick.||Essentially as much as possible. I probably end up around 50% during this window.|
|Marvin Mims||16.3||WR77 between Khalil Shakir and Isaiah Hodgins||Another great ADP to take shots on. Good landing spot and a player I happen to have liked his tape. Could be a steal.||15-20%|
|Jayden Reed||16.6||WR 80 between Mecole Hardman and Tyquan Thornton||Great draft capital but should be a slow paced passing offense. He could be the fourth or fifth option. A mix in guy for me.||6-9%|
|Zach Evans||17.9||RB60 between Chuba Hubbard and Gus Edwards||Not the type of player I draft much. Poor draft capital and even with an injury to the starter he would have to compete for snaps.||1-3%|
|Tank Dell||18.2||WR 87 between Tim Patrick and Robert Woods||Great explosion and already has a friend in his quarterback. Small and still needs to work on teqnique, but a guy I am rooting for and will have some of.||4-6%|
As you can see, my strategy tends to be light on the earlier rookies and heavier on the later rookies as enthusiasm from the draft tends to stretch the early guys a bit early and undersells the opportunities of the later guys.
With the earlier guys, most of them will have a window when they are cheaper as coaches use coach speak to say the rookies are second or third string.
It happens every year!