The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon game on October 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.
17.75Implied Total20.75
15.85Points All./Gm15.54
62.813Opp. Plays/Gm63.217
33.1%6Opp. Rush %36.0%10
66.9%27Opp. Pass %64.0%23
  • These two teams have combined for 25 and 27 points the two times they’ve played since Tennessee drafted Marcus Mariota.
  • Opponents have scored on just 16% of their possessions against Buffalo (second-lowest rate in the league) while opponents have scored on just 23.4% of their possessions versus Tennessee (fourth-lowest rate).
  • The Titans are the only team without an offensive turnover yet on the season.
  • The Bills have 10 offensive turnovers, tied with the Giants for the most in the league through four weeks.
  • Mariota is averaging 12.2 yards per pass attempt using play-action (third in the league) and just 5.3 yards per attempt without (34th). That 6.9-yard gap is the largest for any passer in the league.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Derrick Henry: Henry has at least 17 touches in every game this season and is coming off a season-high 28 touches a week ago. He still has one or fewer receptions in three of his four games, but he always carries touchdown potential. The Bills are tied for the highest rate of touchdown allowed to opposing backs (66.7%) after allowing the most in 2018 (55.3%) and 2017 (62.5%).
  • John Brown: With 11 targets a week ago in a daunting matchup, Brown now has at least 25% of the team targets in three of the opening four games. In all three of those games, he’s been a WR3 or better in fantasy that given week. The most intriguing part of Brown is that he’s running routes everywhere on the field, running 32% of his routes from LWR, 37% from the slot, and 31% at RWR. 
  • Cole Beasley: He’s hauled in 15-of-23 targets the past two weeks. The yardage is of course still pedestrian (126 combined yards) given the types of targets Beasley gets, but this Bills passing game has turned into Beasley and Brown dominating opportunities. You need him in full-PPR formats, but Beasley has 23.8% of the team targets over the opening month. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Marcus Mariota: Hitting last week in an objectively good matchup gives us confidence in going back to Mariota when he has his next good matchup, but this isn’t one this week. The highest-scoring week against the Bills so far has been QB19 and they have allowed just three quarterbacks to finish higher than QB15 since the start of last season.
  • Delanie Walker: Despite his one-catch performance last week, Walker is still the pass catcher in Tennessee to have the most faith in week-to-week. It’s also not surprising that his worst game came in the first game that multiple Tennessee wide receivers did well. But this is as tough of a spot as there is for tight ends. After Buffalo ranked first in the league in yards per target (5.9) allowed to tight ends in 2018, they are sitting at fourth to start this season (5.6 yards). 
  • Titans WRs: We had our first signs of life from Corey Davis (5-91-1) last week as well as a standout game from A.J. Brown (3-94-2). But Brown’s usage was par from the course (three targets on 43.8% of the snaps and 16 pass routes). Similar to Week 1 when he had three catches for 100 yards, it’s hard to chase his production until the snaps and targets surge and stabilize. Especially in a tough matchup for any option here. The Bills have allowed just one touchdown to an opposing wideout to start the season and are sixth in points allowed to the position despite seeing the fourth-most targets. Adam Humphries has the most positive outlook in the slot, but inherently carries a low ceiling. 
  • Josh Allen: Allen has been cleared from concussion protocol and is good to go on Sunday. Over the opening month of the season, Allen has finished higher than QB15 just once and runs into a road game that should be a defensive battle. Allen’s legs will have to add some points this week.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Dawson Knox: The overall targets still just aren’t here as he has four or fewer looks in every game this season. But if fishing, the Titans allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in each of the first three games this season and then allowed a monster game to Austin Hooper (9-130) a week ago.
  • Bills RBs: Devin Singletary should be back this week after practicing last week and then being held back. Frank Gore has been more than serviceable the past three weeks (RB11, RB12, and RB28), but only has four receptions on the season on five targets.  If Singletary returns, both Buffalo backs fall into FLEX territory as low-implied road dogs.

More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAR at SEA | CHI at OAK | BAL at PIT | NE at WAS | NYJ at PHI | ARI at CIN | JAX at CAR | TB at NO | ATL at HOU | BUF at TEN | MIN at NYG | DEN at LAC | GB at DAL | IND at KC | CLE at SF