Packers vs Cowboys Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

• Dak Prescott used play-action on just 20% of his dropbacks in Week 4 after using play-action on 39.9% of his dropbacks Weeks 1-3.
• Prescott leads the NFL with a 132.8 quarterback rating from a clean pocket, but ranks 29th under pressure (54.0). That minus-78.8 drop from clean rating to under pressure rating is ahead of only Mitchell Trubisky (minus-87.7).
• Opposing wide receivers have scored just 32.1% of the fantasy points against Green Bay, the lowest rate in the league.
• Opposing receivers have caught just 43.8% of their targets against Green Bay, the lowest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 64.4%.
• Opposing running backs have scored 52.3% of the fantasy points against the Packers, the highest rate in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Ezekiel Elliott: Coming off a subpar game last week, Elliott runs into a positive matchup at home against a Green Bay team that has hemorrhaged yardage to opposing backfields. Only the Bengals and Dolphins have allowed more fantasy points to opposing backs than the Packers, who have allowed the RB3 (Jordan Howard), RB3 (Phillip Lindsay), and the RB1 (Dalvin Cook) over the past three weeks to go along with 185.5 yards from scrimmage (30th) to backfields over the opening month.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Dak Prescott: The Cowboys reverted to their offense over the previous three seasons last week instead of what worked the opening three weeks. Prescott used no play-action despite averaging 9.3 yards per attempt on this plays Sunday while the team repeatedly battered an ineffective run game into the Saints defense. The Packers are allowing 207.8 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (fourth). Carson Wentz was the QB10 last week (19.7 points) against Green Bay, but he did so on the strength of three passing touchdowns despite only passing for 160 yards.  Prescott had 27.4 (QB3) and 14.1 fantasy points (QB17) in his two games without Tyron Smith active last season.
• Amari Cooper: This will be a battle of Cooper’s outstanding home splits versus the strong start for the Packers secondary. We’ve been circling Cooper playing in Dallas since he joined the Cowboys and so far this season he’s posted 6-106-1 and 6-88-2 in his two games at home to start the 2019 season. Cooper stands to run roughly 44% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (who ranks 16th out of 78 cornerbacks in yards allowed per coverage snap), but also will run 41% of his routes against Kevin King (who ranks 63rd out of 78 in the same group).
• Aaron Jones: With Jamaal Williams in concussion protocol, Jones could get another week where we don’t have to worry about a significant backfield split. Jones has just 40 yards on 21 carries the past two weeks, but has found the end zone in three straight games. 
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Averaging 7.3 targets per game already (with a low of six) with Davante Adams active, Valdes-Scantling gets to be the defacto WR1 should Adams be held out. MVS will lock up with Chidobe Awuzie the most, who is allowing the most yards per coverage snap of the Dallas cornerbacks. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Aaron Rodgers: Last week was his first really good paper play and he didn’t let us down (25.5 points). Approaching things early on as Davante Adams will not be active Sunday. If Rodgers is going to be without Adams, that leaves him with a questionable receiving outfit against a Dallas defense that is fifth in passing points allowed. Dallas hasn’t been tested so far this season by a real quarterback, but they also ranked 11th in the same category a year ago. 
• Randall Cobb: I hate to spoil a good #RevengeGame narrative, but The Packers are number one in the league in points allowed to opposing slot wideouts, allowing just four catches to opposing wideouts from the slot over the opening four games. 
• Michael Gallup: Returning to the lineup after missing the past two games, Gallup runs into a tough draw against a Packers secondary that ranks first in catch rate (43.7%), receptions per game (7.0) and receiving yardage allowed per game (115.0) to opposing wide receivers.
• Jason Witten: You have to get a touchdown here and even that may not be enough. Witten has exactly four targets in each game this season and even though he’s had over 50 yards in each of the past two games, Witten has finished higher than TE15 just once so far.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Jimmy Graham: Graham is coming off a season-high nine targets last week (6-61-1) with five of those targets coming after Adams left the game last week. Graham is tied for the team lead in end zone targets (four) on the season, so he’ll get a target boost to go along with touchdown potential should Adams be held out.
• Geronimo Allison: We should see Allison take over for Adams in two-WR sets with Jake Kumerow coming in for sub-packages with Allison moving inside in those sets. Allison has a touchdown in two of the past three games, but the Cowboys rank fourth in points allowed to slot wideouts and sixth in points allowed to LWR options.