Patriots vs Redskins Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

• New England is the only team in the league that has yet to trail for an offensive snap this season. 
• The Patriots are allowing just 20.5 fantasy yards per opponent possession, the lowest rate in the league.
• Washington is allowing 42.8 fantasy yards per opponent possession, ahead of only the Dolphins (48.9 yards). 
• The Patriots are allowing a league-low 48.4 fantasy points per game to opposing skill players. League average outside of them is 75.8 points per game.
• Opponents versus Washington have converted a league-high 63% of their third downs for first downs or touchdowns.
• Opponents versus New England have converted a league-low 13.5% of their third downs.
• Chris Thompson has run a pass route on 74.6% of his snaps, the highest rate in the league for any running back with over 100 snaps on the season.
• Sony Michel has run a pass route on 13.7% of his snaps, the lowest rate in the league for any running back with over 100 snaps on the season.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Tom Brady: After an expectedly tough draw last week, Brady and the Patriots run into an “all hands on deck” fantasy matchup. Washington ranks 28th in passing points allowed per game (18.4) and has allowed three touchdown passes to every quarterback they’ve faced outside of Daniel Jones. 
• Patriots WRs: Julian Edelman (95.4%) and Josh Gordon (89.2%) were still the two wideouts dominating snaps last week while Phillip Dorsett was at 61.5% (31 routes). This week, they’ll trade a stingy Buffalo secondary for a Washington that ranks 32nd in fantasy points allowed per target (2.48) and 31st in points per game allowed (46.4) per game to wideouts. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Sony Michel: Michel has struggled due to the moving pieces on the offensive line and the loss of James Develin, but unlike a week ago when we down on Michel, this is an objectively better spot. We knew Buffalo would at least give New England a fight defensively and limit overall scoring opportunities, but we don’t feel that way about Washington. Michel still gets dinged for needing a rushing touchdown since he has zero targets on the season, but Washington ranks 21st in rushing points allowed to opposing backfields per game (13.6).
• James White: This game doesn’t have the same signal for White stacking targets as it did a week ago when he caught 8-of-10 targets for 57 yards, but White has been a top-24 scorer in all three games this season, regardless of game situations. He still hasn’t had more than nine touches in a game this season, but White does average 12.9 fantasy points per game in 16 career games as a double-digit point favorite. 
• Chris Thompson: He has double-digit points in every game so far on the strength of consistent junk game script, something we can anticipate here. Thompson is second in the NFL in fourth-quarter receptions (11) and receiving yards (146).

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Washington QB: We don’t have clarity on which Washington quarterback between Case Keenum, Colt McCoy or Dwayne Haskins is going to start, but we can go ahead and confidently say we’re not interested. We want it to be Keenum for the sake of the pass catchers. 
• Washington WRs: If Keenum starts, then we can look at Terry McLaurin returning off injury since it would be a similar situation to what we had against the Bears two weeks ago. But of McCoy or Haskins starts, then we can’t trust either quarterback to be able to be the compiler than Keenum was. 
• Adrian Peterson: he has 33 carries for 90 yards the past three weeks with just 36 total touches since he’s been scripted out every game. As nearly 16-point dogs, expect more of the same.