The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon game.
|45.63%||27||Opp. Rush %||35.05%||3|
|54.37%||6||Opp. Pass %||64.95%||30|
- 42.4% of the yardage gained against the Chargers has come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 33.8% of the Baltimore yardage has come via rushing (eighth) compared to 52.8% in 2020 and 49.4% in 2019, which lead the league in Lamar Jackson’s first full seasons as a starter.
- Lamar Jackson’s 86.1% completion rate (37-of-43) in Week 5 was the highest completion rate in NFL history for a passer throwing 40 or more passes.
- The Chargers are averaging a gain of 20-plus yards once every 8.4 offensive plays, the highest rate in the league.
- Austin Ekeler leads the league in fantasy points scored inside of the red zone with 56.7. His previous career-high for red zone fantasy points for a season is 60.8 set in 2019.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Lamar Jackson: Jackson is coming off the best passing performance of his career on Monday night. He has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games for the first time in his early career and currently ranks fifth in yards per pass attempt (9.1 yards) and second in yards per completion (13.6 yards) to open the season. This is a different Ravens offense that is more reliant on the pass given the state of their offensive line and backfield injuries to this point of the season. Jackson is averaging 33.4 pass attempts per game, which would be a career-high over the course of a full season. Last week was the first time he did throw multiple touchdown passes was just his second QB1 scoring week if looking for any minor holes, but Jackson has scored 18 or more fantasy points in all five games to showcase his high floor.
The Chargers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of the past three weeks and are coming off allowing a season-high 9.5 yards per pass attempt to Baker Mayfield. The interesting layer to this matchup is Jackson leads the NFL in depth of target (11.0) while the Chargers are the league’s best defense against downfield passes, allowing just an 18.2% completion rate (4-of-22) on throws over 15 yards downfield this season to go along with zero touchdowns and four interceptions on those throws. The Ravens are going to have to recalibrate how they have had success through the air to open the season in this matchup. I believe Jackson has some recoil in the passing department here as a byproduct, but his rushing ability gives him as stable of a floor as a QB1 option.
Justin Herbert: Herbert is coming off the highest-scoring fantasy game of his career (42.8 points), torching the Browns for 398 passing yards and four touchdown passes. The early-season touchdown regression has hit swiftly for Herbert as he has 11 touchdown passes the past three games.
Teams have not blitzed Herbert much at all to open the year (26.8% of his dropbacks, 30th in the league), but he is completing 52.2% of his passes for 5.4 Y/A against extra rushers compared to a 71.4% completion rate and 8.2 Y/A when not blitzed. The Ravens are blitzing 26.9% of the time (eighth) overall.
That said, this is not the Ravens defense of year’s past given all of their injuries. They are 18th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.47) while 27th in yards per pass attempt (8.3 Y/A) and 27th in yards allowed per completion (12.7 yards). Herbert showed last week that he is someone to set and forget as a QB1 and this matchup is objectively lighter.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the closest thing we have going to Christian McCaffrey right now given his role near the red zone in this new Charger offense. Ekeler has been a top-six scorer in each of the past four weeks and already has a career-high four rushing touchdowns just five weeks into the season. He also has five or more targets in every game since Week 1, catching 23 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns through the air since failing to catch a pass in the season opener.
The Ravens are 20th in rushing points allowed (15.2) and 28th in receiving points allowed (14.0) per game to opposing backs after allowing 241 yards to the Colts backs on Monday night, 126 yards to Denver backs in Week 4, and 174 yards to Detroit backs in Week 3.
Latavius Murray: Murray has been the lead back for the Ravens the past two weeks, playing 62% and 49% of the snaps. Murray has rushed for 3.4 yards per carry on the season and handled 24 carries for 66 yards the past two weeks, however. After handling 75% of the backfield touches in Week 4, things were tighter on Monday night as he accounted for 44.4% of the backfield touches.
The Ravens have struggled to run the football outside of Ty’Son Williams, who is apparently buried by the staff. This is a great spot we have been targeting for rushers, too. The Chargers are allowing a league-high 5.5 yards per carry and 19.6 rushing points per game to backs. Murray is a matchup-based RB2/FLEX option.
Mike Williams: After his first down week in Week 4 (1-11-0), Williams bounced right back last week, hauling in 8-of-16 targets for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Williams now has nine or more targets in four of five games this season with three of his top-six games in targets for his career coming through the opening five weeks of the year. Despite the Week 4 hiccup, Williams is someone to handle as a WR1 with the marriage of his target volume, types of targets he is receiving downfield and near the end zone, and the Chargers dropping back to pass over 40 times per game in all five games this season.
The Ravens have been solid to opposing wideouts, ranking 10th in catch rate (63.0%) and 13th in points allowed per target (1.79), but are also 23rd in yards allowed per target (8.8 yards) to the position.
Keenan Allen: Allen has been inside of the top-20 scorers just once through five games, with that game coming attached to his lone touchdown catch of the year in Week 3, but he has held a strong floor, finishing lower than WR31 just once. Williams has taken all of the spike weeks through the air here, but Allen has out-targeted Williams in three of the five games this season. Allen is still third in the NFL in targets (53) and fifth in the NFL with 34 receptions. Allen is a floor-based WR2, but spike weeks will come given his overall volume and attachment to Herbert.
Marquise Brown: Catching 9-of-10 targets for 125 yards and a pair of scores on Monday night, Brown continued to run hot. He has scored a touchdown in four of five games and has now scored a touchdown in nine of his past 11 regular-season games played. If he doesn’t put a few down in Week 3 against Detroit, Brown would have a perfect run to open the year.
Brown is second among all wide receivers in points scored over expectation (24.5), but he is still the WR16 in expected points overall as well. This will be an interesting matchup. As mentioned with Jackson, the Chargers have been the best team in the league at defending downfield passing and that is where Brown has lived. Three of Brown’s five touchdowns have come on throws over 20 yards downfield while 38% of his receiving yardage have come on those deep targets. Brown is fast enough to get open on anyone so this will be a strength versus strength matchup. Brown is an upside WR2.
Rashod Bateman: Bateman is set to make his NFL on Sunday after missing the entire preseason and first five weeks with a leg injury. With Sammy Watkins also inactive, Bateman will have some extra runway to make an inaugural impact, but the team has stated they will bring him along slowly to start. That means we also should see extra work for Devin Duvernay here. Bateman is still a stash for seasonal leagues.
Mark Andrews (TRUST): Andrews snapped his scoring drought in a big way on Monday night, catching 11-of-13 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns, while also snagging a pair of two-point conversions on his way to a career-high 41.7 PPR points.
Andrews had a wide-open touchdown in Week 3 missed on an errant throw and a touchdown scored in Week 4 come back due to a penalty, so we were knocking on the door for him getting into the end zone. Andrews has caught five or more passes in four straight games and is second among all tight ends on the season in team target share (24.1%).
The Chargers have allowed four top-10 scoring weeks to tight ends already through five games. They have faced a strong rogue’s gallery of Logan Thomas (3-30-1), Travis Kelce (7-104-0), and Darren Waller (4-50-1) as part of that sample, but also let David Njoku get loose for a huge 7-149-1 game last week. Given the way the Chargers defend the deep ball, it’s no surprise to see tight ends have more success against them as well.
Jared Cook: Cook is still a volatile fantasy asset, giving us a pair of TE1 scoring weeks paired with three games as the TE25 or lower with three or fewer receptions and fewer than 30 receiving yards in those games surrounding weeks of 5-56-0 and 76-70-1. We also have seen Donald Parham play 52% and 53% of the snaps the past two weeks and steal a few end zone targets. Cook is 12th at the position in route participation (68.9%) but 34th in target rate per route (16.8%).
The Ravens have faced a slate of tight ends that is even better than the Chargers to open the year. They also faced Darren Waller (10-105-1) and Travis Kelce (7-109-1), but also T.J. Hockenson (2-10-0), and Noah Fant (6-46-1). On Monday night, the Colts’ tight ends combined to catch six passes for 73 yards. Cook is a boom-or-bust TE2, but has matchup appeal with how aggressively teams have targeted their tight ends against Baltimore to open the year.
More Week 6 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: