The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday Night Football game.
|44.26%||24||Opp. Rush %||39.68%||11|
|55.74%||9||Opp. Pass %||60.32%||22|
- The Seahawks have allowed 450 or more yards from scrimmage in four straight games for the first time in franchise history. They are just the fourth team to have such a streak since 1950. No team has done so for a fifth time in a row.
- Opponents are averaging a league-high 58.4 touches per game against Seattle.
- Seattle is averaging 19.0 fewer offensive plays than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
- The Seahawks have run just four total offensive plays from inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line. Every other NFL team is in double-digits and the Bills lead the league with 36.
- 81.8% of the touchdowns allowed by the Steelers so far have been scored by opposing wide receivers, the highest rate in the league.
- The Steelers are the last remaining team in the league that has yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing running back.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger is coming off his best game of the season, passing or a season-high 10.1 yards per pass attempt and having his first game with multiple touchdown passes. Roethlisberger hit on passes of 50 yards to Diontae Johnson and 59 yards to Chase Claypool to carry his totals as he passed for 6.3 Y/A on his 23 other attempts. The attempts also stand out as the Steelers finally had some offensive balance and did not require Roethlisberger and the passing game to carry the offense like they have had to all season. The Steelers had just 26 total dropbacks after averaging 45.5 per game through four weeks with a previous low of 35.
The Seahawks have struggled to defend the pass to open the year, allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt (26th), 12.4 yards per completion (26th), and 19.3 passing points per game (27th). The only thing that has saved them a bit is they are allowing a 4.6% touchdown rate, which is 14th in the league.
Big Ben has been a QB1 in just one of his past 11 regular-season starts dating back to last season, so it is hard to elevate him here, but the recipe for success as a home favorite is set up for similar results as last week to make him a floor-based QB2 with upside.
Geno Smith: With Russell Wilson sidelined for the foreseeable future, the 31-year-old Smith will make his first start since Week 12 of the 2017 season. Smith was reasonable in relief last week, completing 10-of-17 passes (58.8%) for 131 yards (7.7 Y/A) with a touchdown and interception after Wilson exited the game against the Rams. He also added 23 yards rushing.
This Steelers pass defense has not been great to open the year, allowing 18.1 passing points per game (25th), but are more middle-of-the-pack in yards per pass attempt (7.6 Y/A, 18th), and completion rate (64.4%, ninth) allowed. Their passing points are being anchored in allowing a 5.6% touchdown rate (21st).
Smith has made 31 career starts, finishing as a top-12 scorer in 10 of them, with the last one coming in 2015. Smith has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in a game just six times. Despite how much fun it would be to see Smith hit here, we just can’t trust a road quarterback attached to one of the lowest team totals of the week as more than a 2QB option for those who are patching together a hole at the position.
Najee Harris (TRUST): Harris and the Steelers rushing game finally came together last week after hibernating to open the year. After going 11 consecutive games with fewer than 100 yards rushing yards dating back to last season, the Steelers ran for 147 yards last week, their highest total in a game since Week 3 of 2020.
Harris himself carried 23 times for 122 yards and a score, turning in his fourth straight RB1 scoring week. Harris exited the game late, but was reportedly just dealing with cramps since he was not used to being forced to run a ton of pass routes in the game.
The Seahawks have been equally as bad against the run as the pass. They are allowing 4.4 yards per carry to backs (20th), 18.7 rushing points per game (29th), and to tack on, they are allowing 12.9 receiving points per game to backfields (24th).
Alex Collins: Filling on for Chris Carson last Thursday, Collins played 71% of the snaps, turning 17 touches (68% of the backfield touches) into 72 yards against the Rams. Collins also ran a pass route on 57.8% of the dropbacks, catching both of his targets for 25 yards.
The Steelers have given up some chunk runs, allowing 4.3 YPC to backs (19th), but are allowing just 8.6 rushing points per game (sixth) to the position on the strength of not allowing a rushing touchdown to a running back yet. They are also allowing just 8.1 receiving points per game (fifth) to backs. Collins is a volume-based RB2/RB3.
D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf had his lowest target share (15.6%) of the season in Week 5, but he made the most of his five targets stick as he caught all five for 98 yards and two touchdowns. There is obviously a big question here surrounding losing the hyper-efficient Russell Wilson and we have no idea where the floor is for the Seattle wide receivers without him. That said, Metcalf caught all three of his targets from Geno Smith for 54 yards and a score last Thursday.
The Steelers have also struggled against opposing wideouts. They are allowing 19.7 points per game to opposing WR1 options (28th). They have actually been mid-pack against the position in allowing a 64.9% catch rate (16th) and 8.4 yards per target (13th) to wideouts, but they are being dragged down by allowing a 7.7% touchdown rate to the position, which is 30th in the league.
There is added variance here for both Seattle wideouts, but if one player can have a higher floor with touchdown upside still cooked in, it would be Metcalf as a WR2.
Tyler Lockett: Lockett had the ultimate “so close” game last week as he had a touchdown called back due to a penalty, drew a long pass interference penalty, and was all alone for a walk-in touchdown on the play Russell Wilson injured his finger. When Geno Smith entered the game, he targeted Lockett a team-high four times, but connected on just one for seven yards. Lockett has now closed the past three weeks as the WR63, WR70, and WR38. He also just the WR42 in expected points over that three-game span.
The positive news is that he has run a route on 94.6% of the team dropbacks, which is 10th among all wide receivers. He also is 11th at the position in target share (26.1%). Lockett is going to be on the field and is drawing targets, but with his inherent variance paired with Smith now under center, Lockett is a boom-or-bust WR3.
Diontae Johnson: After 10 or more targets in each of his opening three games of the season, Johnson only received two looks last weekend. The Steelers only threw 25 times, but that 8.0% target share was the lowest for Johnson in a full game dating back to his rookie season. Johnson made the targets count, however, catching both for 72 yards, with one being a 50-yard touchdown.
Johnson’s target share should be expected to rebound and Seattle has been sliced up by opposing wideouts. Seattle has faced 22.8 targets per game to receivers (26th) and they are allowing 9.3 yards per target (25th) and a 5.3% touchdown rate (17th) to the position. Through five games, Seattle has already allowed seven top-21 scoring wide receivers with three top-eight scoring weeks to the position. Johnson slides right back to being a volume-based fringe-WR1.
Chase Claypool (TRUST): With the injury to JuJu Smith-Schuster, Claypool received the largest bump. Claypool not only caught 5-of-6 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown, but he was a wideout who moved into the slot, running 40.9% of his routes from inside, positing 77 receiving yards from the slot. Claypool’s archetype in the slot has scary potential while having all of the same matchup benefits listed above.
James Washington: Washington did not play last week due to a groin injury, but is expected to practice Wednesday and return this weekend. Washington played 82% of the snaps in Week 4 when Claypool missed the game, catching 4-of-5 targets for 69 yards. He played 80% of the snaps in Week 3 when Johnson missed (3-20-0 on five targets).
Washington played 68% of the snaps in the three games that Johnson missed in 2020. That did not equal big points as he had games of 5-36-0 (seven targets), 3-25-0 (four targets), and 4-68-1 (seven targets), but he did have seven targets in two of those games.
Washington is just a speculation add in seasonal leagues, but does offer single-game DFS appeal.
Gerald Everett: Everett missed the past two games due to COVID protocols, but will be back this weekend. Everett has opened the season with games of 2-20-1, 1-3-0, and 5-54-0 to open the season on nine total targets. His routes run have been at 60.7%, 75.7%, and 70.3% of the team dropbacks. Everett carries more single-game DFS intrigue over his TE2 seasonal status against a Steeler defense that is allowing just 6.3 yards per target to opposing wide receivers, ninth in the league.
Steelers TEs: This is still a split between Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron as the rookie has secured 11-of-13 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown while Ebron has caught 5-of-11 targets for 37 yards on the season. Seattle has allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in three straight games if you need to throw a DFS Hail Mary one of these options.
More Week 6 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: