The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Commanders and Bengals on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Washington | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0 | Spread | -8.0 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 28.25 | ||
| 20.5 | 17 | Points/Gm | 17.5 | 22 |
| 27.5 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 21.0 | 15 |
| 62.5 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 54.5 | 23 |
| 56.0 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.5 | 19 |
| 5.8 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 22 |
| 6.2 | 29 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 8 |
| 52.00% | 9 | Rush% | 34.86% | 30 |
| 48.00% | 24 | Pass% | 65.14% | 3 |
| 46.43% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 57.72% | 27 |
| 53.57% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 42.28% | 6 |
- The Bengals have allowed one play of 20 or more yards on defense, the fewest in the league through two games.
- In 2023, they allowed the most plays of 20-plus yards (4.8 per game).
- Washington is averaging 41.2 yards per possession, second in the league.
- 37.9% of Washington’s wide receiver targets have come behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league. The league average is 11.3%.
- Washington has a league-worst 48.3% success against passing plays.
- Opponents have converted a league-high 61.9% (13-of-21) of their third downs against Washington.
- Washington has allowed a touchdown on a league-high 43.8% of opponent drives after allowing a 28.6% rate in 2023 (31st).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (TRUST): Burrow looked much better in Week 2 in Kansas City, throwing for 7.2 yards per pass attempt (he had 5.7 Y/A in Week 1) and 2 touchdowns.
After ending Week 1 as the QB27 (8.1 points), Burrow was the QB9 (17.2 points) in Week 2.
Burrow heads home for one of the best matchups we have had for fantasy over the past two seasons.
No team allowed more passing points in 2023 per game than the Commanders.
Guess who has allowed the most passing points over two weeks to start this season?
You know it.
Even with Dan Quinn and a new scheme, this team has allowed the QB2 scoring week to Baker Mayfield (29.7 points) and the QB6 scoring week to Daniel Jones (18.3 points).
Going back to last season, Washington has allowed a QB1 scoring week in 16 of 20 games.
Jayden Daniels: Daniels did not score as many fantasy points in Week 2 (13.4) than in Week 1 (28.2) because Washington failed to score any offensive touchdowns against the Giants, but he did look a lot more comfortable as a passer.
Daniels was 23-of-29 passing on Sunday.
After throwing only 12.5% of his passes 10 or more yards downfield in Week 1, that rate spiked to 27.6% this past week, but Daniels did not throw a pass 20 or more yards downfield.
Through two games, Daniels has only thrown 2 passes 20 or more yards downfield. Only Jacoby Brissett (1) has fewer.
41.5% of his passes have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league.
Welcome to the Horizontal Raid.
Daniels still ran on Sunday, rushing for 44 yards.
That is the backbone of his fantasy production and keeps him in play as a fringe QB1 option.
This will be a tough matchup against Lou Anarumo.
The Bengals have played solid pass defense to open the season.
One of their games was against Brissett, but the other was Patrick Mahomes.
Through two weeks, they have allowed the fifth-fewest passing points and 5.6 yards per attempt (4th).
Running Back
Brian Robinson: Robinson has started the year on a good note.
After 89 yards and a touchdown in the season opener, he racked up 136 total yards on 18 touches against the Giants.
17.2% of his early-season runs have gained 10 or more yards (RB9) while 31.0% of his attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown (RB10).
If Washington stays in this game, it will be because they are having success running the ball against the Bengals, like New England in Week 1.
The Bengals have a 53.4% success rate against running back runs (28th) and are 26th in rushing yards allowed to running backs (252).
We typically don’t chase Robinson’s archetype for fantasy points when they are large underdogs on the road, but the matchup is good enough to keep him in play as an RB2 option.
Zack Moss: Moss handled 13 touches for 47 yards in Week 2.
He still controlled this backfield over Chase Brown, getting 76.5% of the backfield touches.
So far, that has not equaled fantasy points or production.
Moss has been the RB42 and RB22 over the opening two games, which includes a game with a touchdown.
Through two games, no team has fewer running back runs than the Bengals (28).
Brown only has 10 touches, so he does not have standalone value outside of hoping to run into a big play.
But Brown averages 5.4 yards per touch compared to Moss’s 4.5 yards per touch.
This usage split could tighten up if Moss is not creating explosive plays.
That said, this is an implied game environment in which it makes sense to bet on Moss’ role if you want to plug him into an RB2/FLEX spot.
The Bengals are large home favorites against a Washington defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs (23rd) to start the season.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler only has 10 rushes over two games but is second among running backs in receiving yards (99).
He only has 17 total touches, so his fantasy value is tied to full-PPR formats as a floor-based RB3/FLEX.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase (TRUST): Chase has opened the year with quiet games of 6-62-0 and 4-35-0.
His usage is down to open the year. He has been targeted on 15.5% of his routes.
His previous rates have been 22.1%, 26.0%, and 24.2%.
Chase is averaging a career-low 5.6 air yards per target through two games.
This is an excellent spot for that to change.
No team allowed more fantasy points to opposing WR1 targets in 2023 than Washington.
That has also been true at the start of this season.
Mike Evans (5-61-2) and Chris Godwin (8-83-1) roughed them up in Week 1, depending on which you treat as the WR1.
Malik Nabers (10-127-1) had a big game in Week 2.
Terry McLaurin: It has been a tough start for McLaurin in this new offense.
After catching 2-of-4 targets for 17 yards in Week 1, McLaurin caught 6-of-8 targets for 22 yards in Week 2.
The 8 targets are a good number, but they came attached to 31 air yards. 33.3% of McLaurin’s targets have come at or behind the line of scrimmage. His career rate is 10.8%.
This offense is doing nothing creative for McLaurin.
On top of the low air yards, McLaurin has played 95 of his 114 snaps at LWR, playing 4 total snaps at RWR.
Until McLaurin starts to draw downfield targets, he is a floor-based FLEX.
Tee Higgins: Higgins could return this week after missing the season’s opening two games with a hamstring issue.
While his return does come with the potential for limitations or aggravating that injury again, I have no problem throwing back into lineups as a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX because this Washington pass defense has been so exploitable.
No team has allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers through two games.
Andrei Iosivas: Iosivas only caught two passes on Sunday, but both were in the end zone.
That has been the story of his early career.
Iosivas has only averaged 0.68 yards per route run to start his career.
But he has six end zone targets and six touchdowns on those targets.
If Higgins returns to the lineup, that compromises the few targets he has drawn outside of the end zone, but you can chase a touchdown in this matchup playing single-game DFS.
If Higgins does sit out another week, Iosivas gets bumped to a touchdown-dependent FLEX for seasonal leagues.
Washington WRs: Washington is still going with a rotation of wideouts outside of McLaurin.
In Week 2, Dyami Brown (2 catches for 17 yards) and Luke McCaffrey (zero targets) each ran 23 routes (60.5% of the team dropbacks).
Noah Brown led the team with 56 yards receiving on only 12 routes (31.6%) followed by Olamide Zaccheaus (3 catches for 14 yards), who ran 11 routes (28.6%).
Brown did not play in Week 1, so his role could expand if you want to go into the WR depth here.
Even in single-game DFS, this is a tough group to pursue.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki delivered a strong outing in Week 2, catching 7-of-9 targets for 91 yards against the Chiefs.
It was the most yards that Gesicki has had in a game since he was with the Dolphins in 2021.
The impressive part was that he did that playing just 51.2% of the team’s passing plays.
His 42.9% target rate per route run was the highest in a game for his career.
I do not expect Ja’Marr Chase to be held down much longer.
We could also get Tee Higgins back in the lineup to compromise Gesicki’s role expansion, but he has been targeted when he has been on the field.
If Higgins does return, Gesicki is a dart throw for fantasy lineups and an all-or-nothing swing for single-game DFS gamers.
Zach Ertz: Ertz grabbed all four targets on Sunday for 62 yards against the Giants.
Through two games, Ertz is seventh among all tight ends with 90 receiving yards.
He is the TE8 to start the season in route participation (83.1% of the team dropbacks) and TE9 in team target share (15.1%).
Ertz is a low-ceiling fantasy option best played in full-PPR and TE Premium formats.
More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Giants @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Sunday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Bills -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Bengals -- FREE | Monday Night Football |