Jets vs. Patriots Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 3

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Patriots and Jets on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has thrown for 167 and 176 yards in the opening two weeks this season.

He sits 19th in yards per pass attempt (6.7).

Despite those pedestrian numbers, Rodgers has once again gotten rid of the ball quickly and accurately, something this offense has lacked.

Rodgers has gotten the ball out of his hands with 2.32 seconds to throw, the fastest in the NFL.

The counting stats may not be gaudy, but Rodgers is 10th in passing points per attempt (0.465) through two weeks.

What has limited him from a large fantasy runout is that the Jets play slow and have limited volume.

Paired with no rushing production for fantasy, Rodgers is best used as a floor-based QB2 outside of single-game DFS.

The New England pass defense has not been perfect, but they are going to make you work.

They have allowed a 73.9% completion rate (27th) but 6.7 yards per attempt (14th) and 9.1 yards per completion (6th) to go with a 1.4% touchdown rate (3rd).

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has finished the opening two weeks as the QB28 and QB24 in weekly scoring.

The Patriots have a marginal interest in throwing the ball until they have to, sporting a 46.9% dropback rate (28th).

The Patriots are 9% below pass rate expectations through two games.

Brissett is a thin fantasy option even in 2QB formats.

This New York pass defense has lacked the teeth they have shown in previous seasons to open the year, but this is a passing game they should smother.

They are 15th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.332), but they are still third in the NFL in pressure rate (42.6% of dropbacks) and fourth in sack rate (10.9%) despite limited pass rushers.

Haason Reddick’s contractual situation is still up in the air as he holds out.

They just lost Jermaine Johnson for the season this past week.

Running Back

Breece Hall: Hall has been sturdy out of the gates, posting games of 93 and 114 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown each week.

The run game was better against the Titans (14 carries for 62 yards), but Hall did his damage through the air again, catching 7 of 8 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown.

Hall is tied for the most targets at the position (14).

Rodgers has thrown to running backs at a league-high 36.0% rate to open the year.

If there is one nit to pick here, it is that Braelon Allen turned in two touchdowns on Sunday, but Hall still out-snapped Allen 4 to 1 in the red zone.

We will keep an eye on Allen’s usage near the end zone, but for now, Hall remains a front-end RB1 option.

The Patriots have only allowed 3.58 yards per carry to running backs through two weeks (9th), but they have allowed 1.04 points per touch to backfields (27th) due to a pair of touchdowns and 10 receptions surrendered.

Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley also was injured last weekend and is expected to miss at least this game if not significantly more time.

Bentley is second on the team in tackles through two weeks after leading the team in that department in 2023.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson has been one of the better preseason values through two games.

Stevenson has racked up 28 and 23 touches over the opening two weeks with a touchdown in each game.

After handling 80% of the backfield touches in Week 1, Stevenson did dip to a 63.4% rate in Week 2 with Antonio Gibson healthier.

But Stevenson had the clear edge as a complete back, running 20 pass routes to just 4 for Gibson.

He also out-snapped Gibson 12 to 3 in the red zone.

Stevenson will need to keep up his touchdown production, but he is a volume-based RB2 with upside when he does find the paint.

Even last week, I questioned how many game scripts Stevenson would get like the season opener, but the Patriots have played competitively both weeks.

The immediate schedule is not packed with explosive offenses (unless Tua returns next week) outside of a game with Houston.

The Patriots are not going to be a pushover defensively, want to run the football, and muddy games up.

Still, I would sell high on Stevenson in spots where gamers were buying him above his ADP since this offense has still been bottom-rung and we will inevitably see Drake Maye (have you seen these offenses attached to rookie quarterbacks this season?), but I would not dump him just to move on.

Ideally, you have Stevenson in a spot where you can shop him to RB-needy teams to upgrade elsewhere, but he is also a potential package-up option in 2-for-1 deals.

After being gashed for 147 yards and 5.2 yards per carry by Jordan Mason in the season opener, the Jets bounced back to allow 82 yards on 23 carries (3.6 YPC) to the Tennessee backfield last week.

Braelon Allen: Allen made noise on Sunday by becoming the youngest player to score a touchdown in a game since 1930, but he doubled down by scoring again.

After playing only 8 snaps in the season opener, Allen played 20 snaps in Week 2.

He touched the ball 9 times on those snaps (45.0%), rushing 7 times for 33 yards including the game-winning 20-yard scamper.

He also kicked off the scoring for the Jets, catching a 12-yard screen.

Allen is still a touchdown-or-bust dart throw for fantasy since we need to see more stable work that doesn’t lean on touchdowns, but his Week 2 usage is something to keep an eye on.

He turned in 1,307 total yards and 12 touchdowns as a freshman in 2021 followed by 1,346 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022 and another 1,116 yards and 12 touchdowns this past season at Wisconsin.

Allen is one of the top contingency backs for fantasy and should be stashed in all leagues.

Antonio Gibson: Gibson saw s slight bump in snaps (16) and touches (12) in Week 2.

He went from 20% of the backfield touches in Week 1 to 33.3% last week.

After only turning in 18 yards in the opener, Gibson maxed out his opportunities for 103 total yards on Sunday.

His day was anchored by a 45-yard run.

Gibson was efficient this past week and we could see his usage continue to rise, but he is still serving an ancillary role to Stevenson to open the year.

He is still only a fantasy reserve that needs to be hyper-efficient until his usage climbs.

Gibson only has one reception through two games and has run just 7 pass routes.

Stevenson has out-snapped Gibson 18 to 5 in the red zone.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson: Wilson collected 4 of 6 targets for 57 yards in Tennessee, giving him back-to-back weeks of WR3 fantasy output.

The duo of Wilson and Rodgers flashed their chemistry on a huge 26-yard gain in the 4th quarter, with Wilson winning a tough matchup with L’Jarius Sneed, who followed Wilson all afternoon.

That matchup forced the Jets to go elsewhere for most of the game.

After a 37.9% target share in Week 1, Wilson received 20.7% of the targets this past week.

After drawing a target on 40% of his routes against man coverage in Week 1, Wilson was targeted on 15.4% of his routes against man coverage versus Tennessee.

There will be better days ahead for Wilson as the schedule is going to open up after starting with Charvarius Ward and Sneed.

Wilson gets another physical secondary with Jonathan Jones, Christian Gonzalez, and Marcus Jones, but the New England aggressiveness did lead to some big plays for the Seattle pass catchers.

DK Metcalf pulled in 10 catches for 129 yards and a 56-yard touchdown on a blown coverage.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba also grabbed 12 passes for 117 yards.

I would still expect this to be a game in which passing stats are harder to come by for the Jets as a team, but Wilson will have chances to make plays 1-on-1 again.

The Patriots have played man coverage on 39.2% of passing plays, fourth in the league.

For his career, Wilson has been a better bet against man coverage despite last week.

Wilson has averaged 1.98 yards per route against man coverage for his career as opposed to 1.68 YRR versus zone.

Patriots WRs: This is still a unit that offers minimal fantasy appeal outside of hoping for a touchdown as this is a rotation in a low-volume passing attack.

Ja’Lynn Polk caught his first NFL touchdown last week but only had three targets in total, catching two passes for 12 yards.

Polk did see his route rate trickle up from 62.1% in Week 1 to 68.8% in Week 2.

If a player does emerge here for fantasy relevancy this season, Polk is the favorite, but none of these wideouts need to be rostered in shallow leagues.

DeMario Douglas led the wideouts with 23 routes but did not have a target.

K.J. Osborn ran 20 routes (2 targets) while Tyquan Thornton ran 19 target-less routes.

Through two games, Brissett has targeted wide receivers at a league-low 38.3% rate. The league average target rate for wide receivers is 60.6%.

The Jets have not been as dominant against wideouts to open this season as in previous seasons (15th in points allowed per target to receivers), but this is a unit they should be able to stifle on Thursday night.

Jets WRs: After two touchdowns in Week 1, Allen Lazard quickly came back to Earth, catching 2 of 4 targets for 11 yards on Sunday.

Lazard went from a 100% route rate in Week 1 down to 75.8% this past week as Mike Williams worked in more.

Williams largely impacted Xavier Gipson (only 4 routes in Week 2), but he did dent Lazard’s role a touch.

After only 6 routes (19.4%) in Week 1, Williams ran 24 routes (72.7%) in Week 2.

He was targeted once, corralling a 19-yard contested catch.

We should anticipate Williams continuing to push for playing time, but both he and Lazard are only in play for single-game DFS long plays.

Tight End

Hunter Henry: After a quiet Week 1, Henry bounced back with a big Week 2, catching 8 of 12 targets for 109 yards.

It was Henry’s first 100-yard game since the 2019 season.

It was the first time that he received double-digit targets in a game since 2020.

Henry was targeted on 12.5% of his routes in Week 1 and then was targeted on 42.9% of his routes this past week.

He has been targeted at a higher rate in just one other career game, which came back in 2016.

While we are not expecting last week to be a weekly line for Henry, we know he has touchdown appeal, and this is a soft wide receiver room.

It would not be surprising to see Henry lead this team in targets this season, which gives him a pulse as a fantasy option in this thin climate at the position.

He fits into a large bucket of weekly hopefuls in the back-end TE1 range, but his edge on that group is his attachment to a lighter wide receiver unit.

Henry has run a route on 85.2% of the dropbacks, which is TE6 through two weeks.

The Jets have allowed 9 receptions for 69 yards on 11 targets to tight ends over the first two weeks.

Tyler Conklin: Conklin has been out there a lot but with little to show for things.

He has run a route on 87.5% of the New York dropbacks (TE3) but only has 4 total targets and 16 yards through two games.

The only tight end with fewer yards per route run to run as many routes as Conklin is been Cade Otton.

Outside of hoping that targets finally find him moving forward, Conklin is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy play.

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