The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Falcons and Chiefs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 21 | ||
| 26.5 | 6 | Points/Gm | 16 | 25 |
| 22.5 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 19.5 | 10 |
| 54.5 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 54 | 25 |
| 67.5 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67 | 26 |
| 5.9 | 7 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 12 |
| 5.7 | 24 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 11 |
| 47.71% | 11 | Rush% | 46.30% | 13 |
| 52.29% | 22 | Pass% | 53.70% | 20 |
| 40.00% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 58.21% | 29 |
| 60.00% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 41.79% | 4 |
- Kansas City has turned the ball over on 21.1% of their drives, the highest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs have allowed opponents to score on 50% of their drives (23rd) after a 28.5% rate in 2023 (2nd).
- Only 5.0% (1-of-20) of the drives against the Chiefs have gone 3-and-out after a 24.0% rate in 2023 (6th).
- Only 32.1% of the Kansas City set of downs have reached third down, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 47.8%.
- The Chiefs are averaging 6.5 yards per play on first downs, 5th in the league.
- When the Chiefs faced third down, they only converted 29.4% (5-of-17), 25th in the league.
- The Chiefs are averaging 4.5 yards per play on third downs, 20th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has gotten off to a fantasy start similar to last season, closing the opening two games as QB12 (15.1 points) and QB18 (12.9 points).
Mahomes now has one 20-point fantasy game over his past 11 regular-season outings.
Benglas defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo gave Mahomes issues again last week.
His 151 passing yards were the fewest passing yards that Mahomes has had in a complete game for his career.
The Bengals only blitzed Mahomes three times and mixed up coverages.
Mahomes averaged only 4.2 air yards per attempt, the 4th-lowest rate in a game for his career.
He threw the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage on 48.0% of his passes in Week 2, the highest rate in the league.
A week after it looked like the Chiefs had more answers for creating explosive plays in Week 1, this offense in Week 2 looked much closer to what we saw a year ago.
We are only working with a sample of two games, and Anarumo has defended Mahomes well in the past.
But we also know this offense will not get Marquise Brown back any time soon, and they just lost Isiah Pacheco.
Outside of adding Xavier Worthy, this is essentially the same group of guys we had on the field in 2023, and the backfield may be worse.
Based on the lack of spike weeks, I want to knock Mahomes down as a mid-range QB1.
We will let things breathe because I expect Worthy’s role to grow, and Rashee Rice looks to be a step ahead of where he was as a rookie.
We also know that the Chiefs will remain pass-heavy.
The Falcons have opened the season ranking 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.419) against Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts and have a 25.0% pressure rate on non-blitz snaps (27th).
Kirk Cousins: The Falcons did some self-scouting from Week 1 and made significant adjustments last weekend from the opener.
After Cousins had a 96.0% shotgun rate in Week 1, he was under center 50% of the time on Monday Night.
After failing to run a single play using play action in Week 1, Atlanta used play action on 27.6% of the dropbacks in Week 2.
Cousins was not perfect all game, but his counting stats delivered.
He completed 20-of-29 passes for 241 yards (8.3 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
That pushed him to QB8 (16.4 points) this week after he was QB31 (6.2 points) in Week 1.
You have to like it when a team internally calibrates a significant issue and seeks to make immediate changes.
We will not push Cousins as a 1QB starter, but he can be a floor-based QB2 with the upside to sneak in as a back-end QB1 when things go right.
The Chiefs still pose a threat, sitting 6th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.350) through two games.
When Cousins faced the Chiefs in Week 5 last season with Minnesota, he was QB9 (19.9 points).
Running Back
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More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Giants @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Sunday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Bills -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Bengals -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
