The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Dolphins and Commanders.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Washington | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 25.0 | ||
| 22.3 | 22 | Points/Gm | 21.0 | 26 |
| 28.0 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 25.6 | 24 |
| 57.9 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 55.9 | 31 |
| 62.0 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.1 | 9 |
| 5.6 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 6.4 | 31 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 27 |
| 47.50% | 5 | Rush% | 40.97% | 21 |
| 52.50% | 28 | Pass% | 59.03% | 12 |
| 46.77% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 48.05% | 27 |
| 53.23% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 51.95% | 6 |
- Washington is the 7th team since the merger to have lost four games in a row by 20 or more points, one shy of matching the longest such streak over that span.
- The Commanders have a -90 point differential over the past five weeks (the worst margin in the league) after ranking sixth (+33) over the opening five weeks.
- Washington has scored on 28.6% of their drives over that span, 29th in the league.
- Washington is allowing 3.44 points per drive over the past five weeks (31st) after 1.94 points per drive prior (12th).
- The Commanders are averaging 69.3 fewer yards per game than their opponents, 29th in the league.
- The Dolphins have allowed a touchdown on 22.2% of opponent drives over the past five weeks (14th), down from a 33.3% rate prior (30th).
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Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (TRUST): Tagovailoa only has two QB1 scoring weeks this season, but this is a strong setup for him to be on the table as a streamer in QB1 leagues or as a high-end QB2.
The Washington defense is reeling due to injuries.
Sunday did not help the cause as they lost cornerback Trey Amos to a leg injury and linebacker Ale Kaho to a concussion.
On top of that, Daron Payne has been suspended for throwing a punch on Sunday.
Dan Quinn is taking over as the defensive play caller, but this is a matchup that favors Tua’s strengths in the quick-passing game and utilizing play action.
Tagovailoa has thrown 54.6% of his passes within 2.5 seconds of the snap, the second-highest rate in the league.
On throws within 2.5 seconds, Washington has allowed a 79.5% completion rate (27th), 8.1 yards per pass attempt (31st), and a 5.6% touchdown rate (20th).
Tua has used play action on 26.4% of his dropbacks, 13th in the league.
On play action passes, Washington has allowed 9.4 Y/A (28th) and an 8.4% touchdown rate (28th).
In total, Washington is allowing 18.9 passing points per game, the second-most in the league.
If there is one thing that can slow down Tagovailoa, it is the success of the run game.
Miami has gone extremely run-heavy as the season has progressed.
After a 65.8% dropback rate over Weeks 1 through 5 (3rd highest in the league), the Dolphins have a 55.6% dropback rate over the past five weeks (26th).
Over that span, they have thrown the ball 8% below expectations.
Marcus Mariota: It was not consistent wire-to-wire output in a blowout loss on Sunday, but Mariota did find his way to usable fantasy points on Sunday.
Mariota ended the week as QB12 (18.7 points), completing 16 of 22 passes for 213 yards and 2 touchdowns, adding 22 yards rushing to his output.
What has been extremely odd about Washington’s approach of late is that they seem willing to be alright just losing as quickly as possible.
They have a battered wide receiver room, but this team is hardly trying to throw the ball, and the rushing game has been lackluster of late.
Washington has been outscored 154 to 65 over the past four weeks, and they have a 58.9% dropback rate over that span (22nd in the league).
Here is their pass rate versus expectations in those games:
- Week 7: -5% (-12% on first down)
- Week 8: +7% (+7% on first down)
- Week 9: -12% (-17% on first down)
- Week 10: -16% (-30% on first down)
In those games, Washington has a 40.7% success rate running the ball (16th) with 4.0 yards per carry (23rd), and a run of 10 or more yards on 6.1% of their runs (31st).
That is pretty much the NFL equivalent of hitting “simulate to end.”
If we do get some dropbacks here, Mariota has plenty of matchup appeal and is on the board as a floor-based QB2 via his rushing ability.
Miami is 28th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.530) and is allowing 15.2 passing points per game (21st).
They have also allowed 4.7 rushing points per game to quarterbacks, 27th in the league.
Running Back
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More Week 11 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Jets @ Patriots | Thursday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Eagles | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Raiders | Monday Night Football |
