Bills vs. Jaguars Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 3

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Jaguars and Bills on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen (TRUST): Buffalo had a blowout win in Miami last week. James Cook had two rushing touchdowns, and the Bills had a defensive score. All of those things aligned to keep Allen’s fantasy score down.

He closed the week as the QB26 (9.8 points).

Allen was 13-of-19 passes for 7.3 yards per attempt with a touchdown, but Buffalo did not need much from their passing game or for Allen to use his legs.

Allen will look to get back on track as a front-end QB1 against a Jacksonville defense that is 20th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.414).

When these teams played a year ago, Allen was the QB2 (27.8 points).

Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator in Ryan Nielsen.

Nielsen has been aggressive to start the season, running man coverage on a league-high 64.5% of passing plays.

Allen has only seen man coverage on 16 dropbacks to open the season but has already thrown 3 touchdowns with 8.0 yards per attempt on those plays.

Allen also runs more against man coverage, sporting an 8.0% scramble rate (12.5% this season) versus man coverage as opposed to a 6.7% rate versus zone coverage.

If the Jags are going to be aggressive in the same capacity as the opening two weeks, Allen could rack up fantasy points in a hurry.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence started the season as QB19 (11.3 points) and QB16 (13.3 points).

Lawrence’s 51.0% completion rate is ahead of only Anthony Richardson (49.1%) for passers who have played both weeks this season.

On attempts under 10 yards downfield, Lawrence has a league-worst 51.7% completion rate for 3.0 yards per attempt.

The league rates on those throws are a 72.9% completion rate and 5.2 yards per attempt.

It is hard to use Lawrence as more than a QB2 for fantasy.

Sean McDermott takes his hits from a game management stance, but no matter how many moving parts the Buffalo defense has had over the past two seasons, they have played well against the pass.

The same is true to start this season.

The Bills have opened up the year by limiting Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa before he exited last week’s game.

Through two weeks, Buffalo is fourth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.335) while allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt (8th).

On throws 10 yards or further downfield, they have allowed an 18.2% completion rate (4-of-22).

Running Back

James Cook: Good for James Cook.

Cook has had so many games where he has stacked yardage (like in Week 1) and has been limited for fantasy because he failed to reach the end zone due to Josh Allen or subbing out for some other back.

Cook scored 3 times on Thursday night, twice on the ground and once through the air.

He has only had two rushing touchdowns in each of his seasons in the NFL, so he is well ahead of the curve to set a new career high.

Cook’s receiving score came on a fourth-down play call where the defense lost him. Then, he added a 49-yard scamper for another touchdown to cap his night.

Those touchdowns will be hit-and-miss, but Cook also converted a carry from the one-yard line for a score, something noteworthy.

The thing holding Cook back in fantasy is that he has not received goal-line opportunities.

This is not only because of Allen but also because he is coming out of the game for a bigger back.

Allen remains a threat, but are we sure Cook will not have that backfield role this season?

Time will tell the story, but Cook has played 11 red zone snaps through two games compared to 5 total for Ty Johnson and Ray Davis.

Cook has all 3 backfield touches inside of the 10-yard line so far.

Even if Cook can get a handful more rushing scores this season compared to his first seasons, that will go a long way in elevating his ceiling and raising his floor when he is inefficient.

Cook is a fringe RB1 option with added upside.

The Jaguars have played the run well, allowing 3.7 yards per carry (9th) to the Miami and Cleveland backfields.

They have allowed the sixth-most receiving points to running backs, something Cook can exploit.

Trevor Etienne: Etienne had a 2023-esque line on Sunday, turning 16 touches into 58 yards and finding the end zone for the second straight week.

Etienne took advantage of an early-game injury to Tank Bigsby.

After handling 53.9% of the backfield touches in Week 1, he handled 76.2% in Week 2 with Bigsby banged up.

We will follow Bigsby’s status throughout the week.

Should Bigsby miss Week 3, Etienne is a volume-based RB2.

If the year-two back returns to the lineup, then Etienne is a back-end RB2 who needs to reach the end zone.

Those two touchdowns Etienne scored have provided deodorant for an inefficient start.

24.0% of Etienne’s runs have failed to yardage (41st among backs with double-digit attempts) with a 36.0% success rate (31st).

Buffalo has allowed 3.4 yards per carry to running backs (6th) with a 66.7% success rate against those runs to start the season.

Wide Receiver

Buffalo WRs: A one-side game script did not do this unit any favors in Week 2.

The Buffalo receivers combined to catch 6-of-10 targets for 57 yards on Thursday night in Miami.

One potentially exciting note from the game is that Khalil Shakir had increased usage from the start.

Shakir went from running a route on 70% of the dropbacks in Week 1 to 85% in Week 2.

Shakir leads the team with 2.53 yards per route run and has been targeted on 21.1% of his routes.

If Shakir approaches a route participation rate of 80-90%, he can be a weekly WR3, but he is FLEX-worthy if you are WR-needy this week.

Over three years, Shakir has been an efficient player who has only been roadblocked by opportunity.

Keon Coleman did not catch a pass on Thursday but ran the most pass routes (90%).

Coleman is still a slow burn and a bench stash, drawing a target on 13.3% of his routes run.

Mack Hollins was third on the team in routes (80%) while Curtis Samuel is still lagging behind the group with a 40% route rate.

Brian Thomas: Thomas only had 4 targets on Sunday, but he made the most of things, catching two for 94 yards on receptions of 66 and 28 yards.

Thomas only has 8 targets through two games but leads the team with 141 receiving yards.

He is a boom-or-bust FLEX.

Thomas has been targeted on only 6.3% of his routes against man coverage, something he will have to raise over his rookie season.

The Bills have been excellent on the outside to open the season against the Cardinals and Dolphins.

Buffalo has allowed 4.5 yards per target to wide receivers to open the year, second in the league.

Christian Kirk: It has been a quiet start for Kirk, who has only caught 2-of-7 targets for 29 yards through two games.

Kirk has fewer targets than Thomas and Gabe Davis, averaging 0.55 yards per route run compared to 1.84 for Davis and 2.88 for Thomas.

It hasn’t been pretty.

Lawrence’s accuracy issues near the line of scrimmage have not helped, either.

This matchup is not strong enough to blindly believe in an upside angle, leaving Kirk as a low-ceiling FLEX.

Gabe Davis: Davis leads the Jaguars in routes (57) and targets (10), catching six passes for 105 yards over the opening two games.

Unfortunately, Davis has started as the WR44 and WR48 in weekly scoring.

He gets a #RevengeGame, but the Bills allow the fewest fantasy points per game (8.0) to outside wide receivers, leaving Davis as a WR4/FLEX.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid caught four passes for 33 yards in Week 2, giving him 5 catches and 44 yards to start the season.

Kincaid was involved early, catching two passes on the game’s opening drive.

He then was kicked in the head and missed some playing time. The Bills then got way ahead, and the game script was one-sided.

At the end of things, Kincaid only ran 15 pass routes, but he was targeted on 22.2% of those routes after only receiving a target on 8.7% of his routes in Week 1.

That target rate would be relevant in a game with more dropbacks and offers some promise on a slow start.

Based on everything we have seen from Joe Brady, I still believe Buffalo will be a team with a pass rate below expectations.

That can hurt a player like Kincaid, who has yet to be a real threat for touchdowns.

Buffalo could also be a team with lower-end passing volume and a nebulous target tree where different pass catchers are involved week to week.

Brenton Strange: Strange drew his first career start on Sunday with Evan Engram a late scratch due to a hamstring injury in warmups.

We are entering the week under the assumption that Engram will miss another week, but we will monitor his status.

If Engram misses another week, Strange will be worth a look in single-game DFS and as a streaming option.

Strange ran a route on 74.3% of the dropbacks in Week 2 (TE15 on the week), catching 3-of-6 targets for 65 yards.

Those 65 yards are already good enough for TE7 on the season.

More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: