The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Titans and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 17.75 | ||
| 24.3 | 12 | Points/Gm | 15.2 | 30 |
| 22.7 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 27.5 | 29 |
| 65.5 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 58.3 | 27 |
| 61.5 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.5 | 11 |
| 5.1 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.2 | 31 |
| 5.3 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 26 |
| 44.86% | 11 | Rush% | 34.63% | 31 |
| 55.14% | 22 | Pass% | 65.37% | 2 |
| 35.30% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 46.02% | 23 |
| 64.70% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 53.98% | 10 |
- Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars are 31st in dropback rate (49.2%).
- The Titans have trailed for a league-high 94.8% of their second-half snaps.
- The Titans are averaging 2.2 fewer yards per passing play than their opponents, the worst differential in the league.
- Tennessee running backs have a league-low 31.6% success rate on rushing attempts
- 34.3% (11 of 32) of Tennessee's scoring plays have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- 70.7% (29 of 41) of the scoring plays allowed by Jacksonville have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Titans are the final remaining team without a gain of 50-plus yards on offense.
- Tennessee averages 2.1 runs of 10 or more yards per game, the fewest in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Sunday was the full Trevor Lawrence experience.
He completed 18 of 30 passes (60%), which was 3% below expectations.
He threw 3 interceptions.
But he also threw 3 touchdown passes and rushed for 29 yards.
It is not always pretty, but Lawrence has been steadily scoring viable fantasy points.
Since Week 5, Lawrence is the QB9 in points per game (19.9).
He is underperforming QB4 expectations over that span, too.
He has finished as the QB14 or higher in six of those seven games, with only one week (against Houston) in the back half of weekly scoring.
He has only one week inside the top-10 over that run, so he is still best used as a high-floor QB2 rather than someone to chase a ceiling with, but he has another objectively strong matchup here to be considered in that territory.
The Titans are 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.488), allowing a 69.9% completion rate (31st), 7.8 yards per pass attempt (29th), and a 5.1% touchdown rate (20th).
Cam Ward: We have seen some steps forward from Ward.
Since the firing of Brian Callahan, Ward has completed 64.5% of his passes (16th) for 6.4 yards per pass attempt (24th).
While he still ranks in the middle to the back of the position, he was completing a league-low 55% of his passes for 5.5 Y/A (32nd) before.
As a byproduct, he is averaging 221.8 passing yards per game (16th) over the past five weeks after 183.5 per game (30th) through six weeks.
Tennessee is starting to let him play a bit.
The Titans have thrown the ball 5% and 2% over expectations the past two weeks.
Ward has even started to run a bit.
He has scrambled on 8.5% of his dropbacks the past two games.
Before that, he had only scrambled on 3.2% of his dropbacks.
After rushing for 33 yards in Week 11, he ran for 37 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
Ward’s two highest scoring weeks of the season have come these past two weeks against the Texans (13.1 points) and Seahawks (23.9 points).
We do not want to over-pursue that rushing output since it may not be static (he can run, but did not lean into it in college), but Ward gets a better outlook here to put things to the test to see if he can become stream-worthy to close the year.
It is a full week of games, so Ward is probably not necessary for many gamers to chase, but if you are in 2QB formats, this is maybe his best matchup of the season.
Ward has not had an impressive season by any means, but he has faced a daunting slate, drawing the Broncos, Rams, Texans (twice), Colts (twice), Cardinals (when they were good), Patriots, Chargers, and Seahawks.
That is seven games against top-10 pass defenses for fantasy.
The Jaguars are 26th in passing points allowed per game (16.1), the lowest among the teams he has faced this season.
The Jags are a pass-funnel team, facing 37.9 pass attempts per game (3rd-most).
They have allowed six QB1 scoring weeks over their past seven games, which includes Geno Smith (26.3 points), Davis Mills (27.7 points), and Jacoby Brissett (18.7 points), all on the road.
They also erased Justin Herbert (3.3 points) over that span to keep us honest.
If Ward does keep running, Jacksonville has allowed 3.5 rushing points per game (23rd).
Running Back
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More Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions | Thanksgiving |
| Chiefs @ Cowboys | Thanksgiving |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Thanksgiving |
| Bears @ Eagles | Black Friday |
| 49ers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Steelers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Giants @ Patriots | Monday Night Football |
