The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Falcons and Panthers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 19.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 17.7 | 28 | Points/Gm | 18.7 | 27 |
| 22.2 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 23.2 | 16 |
| 62.0 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 20 |
| 58.1 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.4 | 11 |
| 4.8 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 12 |
| 47.10% | 8 | Rush% | 43.58% | 14 |
| 52.90% | 25 | Pass% | 56.42% | 19 |
| 44.06% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 50.09% | 31 |
| 55.94% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 49.91% | 2 |
- Carolina has allowed a league-high 68 points off turnovers this season.
- Atlanta has scored 16 points off takeaways, 29th in the league.
- The Falcons have converted 25% (13 of 52) of their third downs over the past 5 weeks (31st) after a 41.8% rate (23 of 55) prior (10th).
- Carolina is allowing 7.5 yards per play on third downs, 31st in the league.
- The Falcons are 10th in EPA as a pass defense (-3.98) compared to 28th in EPA as a run defense (-3.78).
- The Panthers are 10th in EPA as a rushing offense (-0.64) compared to 30th in EPA as a passing offense (-2.17).
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Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Michael Penix: It was not pretty for Penix on Sunday.
He completed a season-low 42.9% of his passes (12 of 28) for 177 yards with a touchdown.
Penix has now completed 58.8% of his passes this season, ahead of only Dillon Gabriel (58.6%) and Cam Ward (57.6%).
His 14.6% inaccurate throw rate is ahead of only Caleb Williams (15%).
He has only completed 49.2% of his passes on third downs, ahead of only Ward (45.7%).
If looking for something on the positive end, Penix does have a 32% touchdown rate in the red zone, which is seventh in the league.
Penix was a disaster when these teams met earlier in the season.
In Carolina in Week 3, Penix completed 18 of 36 passes for 172 yards (4.8 Y/A) with 2 interceptions.
Everything here keeps Penix in 2QB territory, but if you are using him in those formats, he has played better at home this year.
In his three starts in Atlanta, Penix has been QB10 (24 points), QB13 (18.7 points), and QB20 (14.6 points).
Penix has completed 67% of his passes for 8.6 yards per attempt and a 4% touchdown rate at home this season.
On the road, he has a 53.8% completion rate, 5.9 Y/A, and a 3.1% touchdown rate.
Carolina has allowed five QB1 scorers over their past seven games as an added carrot, which includes Tua Tagovailoa (22.7 points) and Tyler Shough (19 points).
Bryce Young: Young was nondescript on Sunday, completing 17 of 25 passes for 124 yards (5.0 Y/A) with an interception in a loss to the Saints.
Young has thrown for 200 yards just once this season.
His 5.6 yards per pass attempt is ahead of only Dillon Gabriel (5.0 Y/A).
Downfield passing and scrambling are what put Young in play as a QB streamer to close last season.
Both have disappeared this season.
Young has completed 37.8% (28 of 74) of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, ahead of only Cam Ward (37.6%) and Gabriel (36.2%).
After an 8.2% scramble rate last season, Young has a 4.7% scramble rate this year.
Young is a back-end QB2.
Atlanta is allowing 12.0 passing points per game, seventh in the league.
When these teams played in Week 3, Young was QB25 (11.6 points), completing 16 of 24 passes for 121 yards (5.0 Y/A) with his lone rushing touchdown of the season.
Carolina played ahead throughout that game, so we could get more push here, but he also had that last week against the Saints.
Running Back
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More Week 11 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Jets @ Patriots | Thursday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Eagles | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Raiders | Monday Night Football |
