- The San Francisco 49ers have the easiest 2025 fantasy football schedule for passing
- The Los Angeles Chargers have the hardest 2025 fantasy football schedule for passing
- The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest 2025 fantasy football schedule for rushing
- The Cincinnati Bengals have the hardest 2025 fantasy football schedule for rushing
There is no perfect way to determine strength of schedule for the upcoming NFL season.
Some are much better than others – such as our metric that relies on Vegas win totals – but even the best ones are not actionable for fantasy drafts.
Strength of schedule is difficult because teams change dramatically every season, especially on defense.
Simple turnover luck can help the worst passing defense in the league improve to a middle-of-the-pack unit the next season.
Teams also target their weaknesses during the offseason, so the worst defenses tend to add more talent than the elite ones from the season before.
All of that said, some of those strength of schedule failings can be mitigated by using efficiency numbers that take game script out of the equation, looking at each schedule critically, and focusing primarily on the extremes on either side.
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Full Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule, Passing:
| Rank (1=Easiest) | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | New York Jets |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 8 | Miami Dolphins |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 10 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 11 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 12 | Detroit Lions |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 16 | Houston Texans |
| 17 | Green Bay Packers |
| 18 | New England Patriots |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 20 | Chicago Bears |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 22 | Buffalo Bills |
| 23 | Cleveland Browns |
| 24 | Washington Commanders |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 26 | Denver Broncos |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 29 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 30 | New York Giants |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 32 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Given the injury “luck” they had in 2024, the 49ers probably deserve to be on the good side of the schedule difficulty gods in 2025.
As it stands, they project to face the easiest schedule of pass defenses this season.
That is great news for a pass offense that was still really good last year.
Brock Purdy finished 2024 ranked third in yards per attempt (8.5), fifth in EPA per play (0.19), and fourth in success rate (49.8%) among qualified quarterbacks.
Touchdowns were the biggest difference for Purdy last season.
After posting a 7.6% touchdown rate in 2022 and a 7.0% rate in 2023, Purdy fell to a 4.4% rate last season, 19th among qualified quarterbacks.
We had a lot of concern about touchdown regression hitting the 49ers overall before last season, but they found themselves at the other end of expected touchdown variance in 2024, scoring 6 fewer than expected.
While this projected schedule luck is good news, we do still have some questions about the 49ers given the Deebo Samuel trade and Brandon Aiyuk‘s recovery from a serious injury.
There has been some optimism about Aiyuk's timeline recently, but a return closer to midseason still appears to be the most likely outcome.
That means Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall will likely open 2025 as the leading receivers.
Jennings was already that at the end of last season, commanding a 27.8% target share while running a route on 86.5% of 49ers dropbacks after he returned from injury in Week 10.
That target share ranked 10th among qualified receivers over that span, though that usage did not result in massive fantasy numbers.
Jennings was only the WR28 in fantasy points over that span as the 49ers struggled to score points.
San Francisco was 19th in points per drive over the second half of the season, a sharp decline from their juggernaut offenses of the past and even where they were at the start of 2024.
Perhaps an easier schedule can help Jennings turn those looks into more consistent fantasy points.
As for Pearsall, he was able to establish himself over the final two games of last season.
In those two games, he had just 2 fewer targets than Jennings and easily outproduced him.
Pearsall went for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns in those games, averaging 2.63 yards per route run.
George Kittle should also get a big boost with Samuel traded and Aiyuk sidelined.
Kittle was targeted on 19% of his routes over the last three seasons with Samuel on the field.
That number jumped to 24.7% with Samuel on the sidelines, and that was with Aiyuk, Jennings, and Christian McCaffrey running routes on most of those plays.
Kittle stands to get more consistent opportunities, and we know what he can do with those when they come.
Full Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule, Rushing:
| Rank (1=Easiest) | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 9 | New York Giants |
| 10 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 12 | Miami Dolphins |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 14 | New York Jets |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers |
| 16 | Denver Broncos |
| 17 | Washington Commanders |
| 18 | New England Patriots |
| 19 | Tennessee Titans |
| 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 21 | Detroit Lions |
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 23 | Chicago Bears |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns |
| 25 | Buffalo Bills |
| 26 | Houston Texans |
| 27 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 28 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 29 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 30 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 32 | Cincinnati Bengals |
For the second season in a row, the Falcons own the easiest rushing schedule for fantasy football.
Bijan Robinson took full advantage of that schedule a season ago, finishing as the RB4 in total fantasy points and fantasy points per game among qualified backs.
Robinson was less of a boom or bust runner in his second season.
While his rate of 10+ yard runs decreased to a lackluster 11.2%, his rate of 5+ yard runs increased, and he had far fewer negative runs.
Among qualified backs, Robinson was first in the rate of 5+ yard runs (44.1%) and fourth in the rate of negative runs (13.8%) last season.
From a fantasy perspective, it was promising to see Robinson dominate the work near the goal line under the new coaching staff.
After getting 12 touches in goal to go situations as a rookie (9 for Tyler Allgeier), Robinson had 28 in 2024.
Allgeier had 9 again last season, pointing to the offensive improvement for the Falcons overall.
There is reason to hope Atlanta takes another step in 2025 with Michael Penix in his second season.
With Penix starting over the final three games last year, the Falcons were fifth in points per drive and eighth in yards per play.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Bengals are looking at the toughest projected schedule of run defenses heading into the 2025 season.
Chase Brown broke out at the end of 2024, seeing 100 percent of the running back carries in Week 9 and never looking back.
From that point on, he was the RB5 in fantasy points per game, and he was fourth among all running backs in touches per game.
He was hampered by the offensive line after taking over as the starter, ranking 34th among qualified backs in yards before contact per rush.
The Bengals overall ranked 30th in ESPN's run block win rate.
Unlikely to see the same touch counts moving forward and facing a tougher schedule, Brown will need the offensive line to play better in front of him to find more efficiency.
Which NFL team has the easiest 2025 fantasy football schedule for passing?
The San Francisco 49ers have the easiest 2025 fantasy football schedule for passing based on 2024 pass defense efficiency.
Which NFL team has the hardest 2025 fantasy football schedule for passing?
The Los Angeles Chargers have the hardest 2025 fantasy football schedule for passing based on 2024 pass defense efficiency.
Which NFL team has the easiest 2025 fantasy football schedule for rushing?
The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest 2025 fantasy football schedule for rushing based on 2024 run defense efficiency.
Which NFL team has the hardest 2025 fantasy football schedule for rushing?
The Cincinnati Bengals have the hardest 2025 fantasy football schedule for rushing based on 2024 run defense efficiency.