The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Sunday afternoon game on September 15, 2019 at 1:00 pm ET.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 20.75 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 28 | 12 | Points/Gm | 10 | 29 |
| 12 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 3 | 2 |
| 49 | 31 | Plays/Gm | 57 | 26 |
| 67 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65 | 22 |
| 77.6% | 1 | Rush% | 38.6% | 18 |
| 22.5% | 32 | Pass% | 61.4% | 15 |
| 25.4% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 23.1% | 4 |
| 74.6% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 76.9% | 29 |
- Over their past 13 games at home in September, the Packers are 12-0-1 straight up and 9-4 against the spread.
- Aaron Rodgers has finished as a top-12 scoring quarterback in only one of his past five full games played against the Vikings, throwing more than one touchdown pass in just one of those games.
- Kirk Cousins has attempted 21, 28, and 10 passes in the three wins under offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski as opposed to 33 pass attempts in the one loss to date under Stefanski.
- The 10 pass attempts by the Vikings in Week 1 were their fewest in a game since Week 11, 1977. They were the first team to attempt 10 or fewer passes in a game since the Bears in Week 7 of 2017 (seven).
- In those wins under Stefanski, Minnesota has rushed for 220, 100, and 172 yards.
- After allowing 119.9 rushing yards per game in 2018 (23rd), Green Bay allowed just 46 rushing yards (sixth) in Week 1.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Dalvin Cook: Cook looked as healthy and electric as he did this preseason, posting 120 yards on 23 touches in Week 1 with two touchdowns. He even knocked on the door of a third touchdown before being vulture by his quarterback. The Packers shut the Bears’ running game down in Week 1, but the game script the Vikings had in Week 1 didn’t even allow for us to see Cook be used in the passing game. The Packers allowed 15 receptions to Chicago backs in Week 1, with seven of those coming from out of the backfield.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Davante Adams: Adams posted a soft 36 yards in Week 1 on four receptions. He still led the team with eight targets (26.7% of the team share), but Rodgers has another matchup with a similar outlook here. Adams has a touchdown catch in four consecutive games against the Vikings but hasn’t reached 70 yards in any of his nine career games against Xavier Rhodes and this defense.
- Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs: going back to last year and factoring in Week 1, we need to be cautious with the Minnesota wideouts when they are favorites and in a position to control game script. In the three Minnesota wins under Stefanski, Diggs has totaled an 8-96-2 line while Thielen has posted a 10-142-1 one. Here as road dogs, we should give them more rope to be WR2 options with upside. Although the Packers D appeared much improved in Week 1, they still nearly allowed a monster game to Allen Robinson instead of the 102 yards he did have. Diggs has scored in five straight games against the Packers while Thielen had lines of 12-131-1 and 8-125-1 against the Packers a year ago.
- Aaron Jones: His workload — he handled 66.7 percent of the backfield touches — was still solid, but Jamaal Williams worked his way into the passing game more than assumed as Williams ran 13 pass routes to 15 for Jones. As a home favorite, Jones stays in the RB2 mix against a Vikings defense in which he posted 93 yards and a touchdown against on 20 touches a year ago.
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Aaron Rodgers: It’s another week where Rodgers won’t crack my top-12 at the position, although he gets a boost for being at home. Zimmer’s defenses have consistently been game versus Rodgers. He was the QB19 and QB25 in their two meetings a year ago. On the positive end for Rodgers, he averaged 16.8 yards per pass attempt on play-action last week against the Bears. On the negative end, he had just six play-action drop backs.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He played 42 snaps and was tied for second on the team in targets (six), while catching four passes for 52 yards. The downside is that he was still the WR57 in Week 1 and the Packers run into a similar layout this week against a tough Vikings defense that shut down the Falcons prior to garbage time in Week 1. Valdes-Scantling checks in as a WR4 option this week.
- Geronimo Allison: He was behind Valdes-Scantling with 32 snaps played and failed to receive a single passing target in Week 1. With the Packers running more two tight ends sets, Allison may not have the path to initial snaps and target opportunities to keep him in play as a someone that has weekly consideration.
- Kyle Rudolph: He had a goose egg in Week 1 which was aided by the low number of team pass attempts, but Rudolph has been held to fewer than 40 yards receiving now in 10 of his past 12 games played.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Jimmy Graham: Graham’s snap rate (54.7%) and routes run (20) were way down in Week 1 from the 74% and 34.3 routes per game marks he had a year ago. But he still was tied for second on the team in targets (six) and led the team in air yards (117) in Week 1. The Vikings were 30th in DVOA against opposing tight ends in 2018 and allowed a 9-77 line to Austin Hooper in Week 1.
- Kirk Cousins: With the Vikings as road dogs, Cousins should find his way to more passing volume this week than last. Cousins’s two best games last year came torching the Packers. The first was a 425-yard, four-touchdown game in Week 2 and the other was a 342-yard, three-touchdown game in Week 12. But both were prior to the change to Stefanski and the Packers secondary and pass rush have been re-tooled. I believe there’s still a range of outcomes where Cousins has upside, but the Vikings’ pedestrian team total here doesn’t do Cousins any favors of elevating him from a mid-QB2 option on the surface.
