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Week 11 Prediction: Cooper Rush Less Than 187.5 Passing Yards
Cooper Rush has started six games since the start of 2022, and he’s averaged just 57% completions despite an average target depth of only 7.4 air yards.
For context, no quarterback this season is close to averaging 57% completions with only 7.4 air yards.
The Texans have held opposing quarterbacks to a completion rate 6% below their season average, a total completion rate of 54%, the lowest in the NFL, and even held Jared Goff to 50% completions last week.
Now, you have Mike McCarthy talking up running Rico Dowdle more, and there’s a chance we see Trey Lance get some snaps, especially if Rush continues to struggle.
Finally, the Texans offense has the 12th-highest run rate and faces frequent third downs.
They are terrible at avoiding third downs but rank league average at converting them including #2 best at converting third downs with one to three yards to go.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank dead last in third and short conversion rate and #25 in overall third down conversion rate.
Why are those stats significant?
Because it means the Texans are likely to control time of possession while converting third downs and matriculating the ball down the field, meaning fewer pass opportunities for Rush.
