- 31.9% of all possessions last season reached the red zone, the highest rate since 2020 and the second-highest rate over the past 15 seasons.
- The Lions reached the red zone (or skipped the red zone with a longer touchdown) on 49.5% of their possessions. That rate was the fifth-highest rate for a team this millennium.
- No team ran hotter in the red zone last season than the Ravens. Their red zone conversion rate was the sixth-highest rate for a team in the 2000s.
As we approach July and head further downhill towards the 2025 fantasy season, we will extend our top down approach by analyzing team performance and output.
The goal is to have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth by late August, from a team, player, position, and game theory standpoint, to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for the upcoming season.
| 2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends |
| Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Red Zone Trends |
| Red Zone points over expected: Quarterbacks (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Running Backs (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon) |
To conclude this series, we are examining offensive performance in the red zone.
Leaguewide Red Zone Production Since 2010
| Year | RZ/Drive | RZ TD% | NFL TD% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31.91% | 57.61% | 77.24% |
| 2023 | 28.53% | 57.27% | 76.88% |
| 2022 | 29.95% | 56.81% | 75.82% |
| 2021 | 31.74% | 58.23% | 77.62% |
| 2020 | 32.92% | 62.00% | 75.87% |
| 2019 | 30.03% | 56.10% | 73.15% |
| 2018 | 29.37% | 58.82% | 74.18% |
| 2017 | 26.78% | 52.42% | 71.36% |
| 2016 | 29.57% | 55.26% | 74.86% |
| 2015 | 27.28% | 55.77% | 72.49% |
| 2014 | 27.91% | 53.28% | 71.86% |
| 2013 | 27.13% | 55.20% | 73.48% |
| 2012 | 27.05% | 53.75% | 72.97% |
| 2011 | 27.30% | 51.98% | 72.31% |
| 2010 | 26.84% | 52.16% | 71.48% |
*All Drives exclude possessions that end in kneel-downs
We opened this series last week, highlighting how NFL offenses began to find answers last season, which resulted in a significant increase in scoring.
This table illustrates that.
31.9% of all possessions last season reached the red zone, the highest rate since 2020 and the second-highest rate over the past 15 seasons.
Teams converted red zone trips into more touchdowns than the previous two seasons, although not quite as strongly as the heights of the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
One thing we also highlighted last week when discussing passing trends is that the deep ball is still lagging despite the newfound success offenses have experienced.
This is also reflected in the fact that 77.2% of the offensive touchdowns last season occurred inside the red zone, the second-highest rate over this 15-season sample.
The rate of red zone reliance for touchdowns has been steadily increasing.
The five highest seasons in the rate of league touchdowns coming from inside the red zone over the 15-year sample have all come in each of the past five seasons.
In short, teams have needed the red zone more than ever to produce touchdowns.
It is no secret that the closer you get to the end zone, the easier it is to produce a touchdown.
However, consider the following numbers since 2010 compared to the rates from 2024 to highlight the significant issue the NFL faced in generating explosive touchdowns last season:
- 73.9% of all touchdowns scored have come from inside the red zone. In 2024, that rate was 77.2%.
- 73.7% of all red zone touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 74.9%.
- 47.3% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from inside the five-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 47.4%.
- 86.6% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2024, that rate was 85.7%.
- 67.0% of all passing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2024, that rate was 69.9%.
- 74.0% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 74.9%.
- 43.7% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2024, that rate was at 45.6%.
- 57.4% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the five-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 57.5%.
- 22.6% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the five-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 22.8%.
- 23.1% of all NFL touchdowns are scored from the one or two yard lines. In 2024, that rate was 23.3%.
- 43.4% of all rushing touchdowns overall come from the one or two yard lines. In 2024, that rate was 42.3%.
All of the 2024 rates, except one (rushing touchdowns from the one or two yard line), were higher than our base average over the entire sample (thanks, Saquon Barkley).
Even factoring in Barkley's season last year, it is harder to run the ball in for a touchdown from long distances, but even two-thirds of the league’s passing touchdowns come from inside the red zone.
With that set up, let’s look at the success rates that each team had reaching (or bypassing) the red zone per possession in 2024.
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NFL Red Zone Drive Rate
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