- Over the past decade, a target from the 19-yard line has been worth 1.8 fantasy points on average. A target from the 10-yard line jumps up to 2.2 points on average. A target from the five-yard line climbs to 2.8 points on average. A target in the actual end zone is worth 3.0 points on average.
- Terry McLaurin scored the most red zone points over expectations at receiver, coming in third in points scored behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase despite ranking 23rd at the position in expectations.
As we approach August and head further downhill towards the 2025 fantasy season, we will extend our top down approach by analyzing team performance and output.
The goal is to have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth by late August, from a team, player, position, and game theory standpoint, to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for the upcoming season.
In our examination of league and team performance in the red zone last season, we covered not only how the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL comes from inside the red zone, but also that not all red zone touches are created equal.
We also showcased in that post how NFL offenses have become more dependent on red zone production as part of their scoring output.
The discovery of true regression candidates in this area of the field could prove pivotal, given the rising need for offenses to succeed in the red zone.
To reiterate some notes from that article that relate to passing production near the end zone, since 2010:
- 67.0% of all passing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2024, that rate was 69.9%.
- 43.7% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 45.6%.
- 22.6% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the five-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 22.8%.
Over the past decade, a target from the 19-yard line has been worth 1.8 fantasy points on average.
A target from the 10-yard line jumps up to 2.2 points on average.
A target from the five-yard line climbs to 2.8 points on average.
A target in the actual end zone is worth 3.0 points on average.
You get the drift.
The closer you get to the end zone, the more valuable the opportunity is for fantasy points.
With that knowledge in place, the next step is to dive into the red zone production versus an expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and weigh in where those opportunities came from inside the red zone.
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2024 WR Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation
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