A.J. Brown Patriots Trade: 2026 Fantasy Football Fallout

With the anticipated June 1 threshold getting here, we finally received news that A.J. Brown is officially being traded to the New England Patriots.

Let’s examine the fantasy football implications of this move for Brown’s fantasy value, as well as how this trade impacts members of the Patriots and Eagles rosters.

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A.J. Brown Fantasy Value With the New England Patriots

Turning 29 at the end of June, Brown has been a steady fantasy performer throughout his career, but he averaged just 66.9 yards per game last year, his fewest in a season since 2021.

Brown posted 88.0, 85.6, and 83.0 receiving yards per game in his first three seasons with the Eagles.

His 12.9 yards per catch last year were a career low.

A.J. Brown Career Stats

Although Brown is coming off a down season based on his lofty standards, he still managed to post 1,003 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns on 78 receptions.

That was in the context of the lackluster Philadelphia passing game.

The top-down stats also do not tell the complete story.

Brown opened the season slowly, missing time in August before the kickoff with a hamstring injury.

Brown posted 43 yards or fewer in four of the opening five games, with single-digit yardage in three of those contests.

He then had solid games of 6 catches for 80 yards in Week 6 and 4 catches for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 7 before aggravating that hamstring injury and missing Weeks 8 and 9.

After his return in Week 10, in which he played only 78% of the snaps, he then closed the year on a high note, catching 47 passes for 595 yards and 4 touchdowns over his final seven games.

From Week 11 to Week 17 (the starters rested in Week 18), Brown was fourth among all wide receivers in receptions and fifth in receiving yards, posting 95 or more yards in four of those games with three 100-yard outings.

He was the WR5 in fantasy points per game over that stretch (18.6).

A.J. Brown Advanced Stats

Brown posted a career-low yards per route run last year, but it was still good for WR18 over the full season.

He has averaged at least 2.0 yards per route run every year of his career.

For the first time in his career, fewer than 40% of Brown’s targets resulted in a first down or touchdown.

Lack of production after the catch was a culprit in that drop off last year.

Brown had a career-low 3.4 yards after the catch rate in 2025.

Only 26.7% of his receiving yardage came after the catch, the lowest rate of his career.

Those numbers could have been affected by hamstring issues, as well as by the static state of the Philadelphia offense in general.

Brown and the Philly passing game did not do much work in the middle of the field last season to generate yards after the catch.

24% of Brown’s routes last season were hitches, the highest rate of his career.

After an 8.2% crossing route rate in 2024, that sagged to 5.8% in 2025, the second-lowest rate of his career.

He ran a slant route on 11.5% of his routes, down from 15.2% in 2024.

That was his second-lowest rate since joining the Eagles.

13.2% of his targets came on out routes, his highest rate with the Eagles.

Brown also had a career-low 24 targets on play action last year to top things off.

Once again, I do want to note that while the top-down numbers are among the worst of Brown’s career to date, he did end the season with an efficient run as an alpha target.

From Week 7 to Week 17, Brown accounted for 28.6% of the team’s targets (WR6), 36.7% of the air yards (WR11), and had 2.63 yards per route run (WR5).

Changing scenery to New England, Brown will be going to one of the league’s top explosive-play passing offenses from a year ago.

On offense, the Patriots averaged 13.8 plays per game of 10 or more yards (4th) and led the league with 5.0 plays per game of 20-plus yards.

They also led the league with 10 plays of 50 or more yards last season.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Drake Maye completed 60.7% of his passes (2nd) for a league-high 13.4 yards per attempt.

The league average on those completions was 48.5%.

On throws 20 or more yards downfield, Maye completed 50% (3rd) while throwing a league-high 5 touchdowns on throws 30 or more yards downfield.

This transition should allow Brown to access more explosive opportunities from an offense and quarterback playing much more under center and working off play action.

Maye ranked ninth in snaps under center last year (45.6%), while Jalen Hurts ranked 28th (22.7%).

Over his four seasons with the Eagles, Brown totaled 19 targets with his quarterback under center.

For his career on 420 routes, he has averaged 4.35 yards per route run with his quarterback under center.

I do not want to use space to tear down Hurts as a player because he has more overall NFL success to his credit than negatives, but you can make a strong case that Maye will be the best quarterback Brown has worked with in terms of full-field passing acumen.

Brown has 486 career targets from Hurts, followed by Ryan Tannehill (273), Marcus Mariota (22), Gardner Minshew (17), Kenny Pickett (16), and Tanner McKee (2).

In just his second year, Maye led the NFL in quarterback rating (113.5), QBR (77.2), EPA per play (0.27), and was second in success rate (51.6%).

When Maye worked with Stefon Diggs last season, both were hyper-efficient.

Diggs was on the field for only 68.3% of the team’s dropbacks, but when he was on the field, he posted 2.42 yards per route run (WR8) and 0.50 fantasy points per route run (WR11).

Diggs had more receptions and receiving yards than Brown did last season while running 62 fewer routes.

We still have a strong sample of Brown playing at a high level last season, and he is going to play more snaps than Diggs did in this offense, with an upgrade in a complete offensive environment.

Josh McDaniels has had attachments to some high-end receiving talent, and we have seen some monster seasons from that group, as well as efficient years like Diggs' last season.

In 2022, Davante Adams had 100 receptions for 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns under McDaniels.

Of course, we have the ludicrous 2007 season from Randy Moss when he scored 23 touchdowns.

Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Brandin Cooks all had 1,000-yard seasons under McDaniels (and with Tom Brady).

This is a boon for Brown and keeps him firmly in play as a high-end fantasy WR1 for 2026.

DeVonta Smith’s 2026 Fantasy Value

With Brown leaving Philadelphia, DeVonta Smith climbs the board as well (and gamers have been drafting both Brown and Smith, with this news expected).

Smith has run 252 routes with Brown off the field since 2022.

On those plays, Smith has been targeted on 29% of his routes (36.7% of the team’s targets) with 2.60 yards per route run.

Those would all be front-end WR1 usage rates and efficiency if static.

Smith had four games over that period of running 20-plus routes with Brown off the field.

There is a difference between Smith being elevated in season or in game with Brown being off the field compared to this offseason when the Eagles have prepared their roster for Brown’s absence, but even with Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks, and Eli Stowers all added to the fold, Smith can shed some percentages of routes per target and overall target share and still have solid usage near the WR1 range.

We have a season with Smith working as the lead receiver before Brown was added as well.

As a rookie in 2021, Smith caught 64 passes for 916 yards and 5 touchdowns, drawing a target on 20.3% of his routes with 1.79 yards per route.

That was as a first-year player with Jalen Hurts in his first full season as a starting quarterback.

The Eagles have our second-easiest passing schedule for 2026.

There is some weekly fragility here since the Eagles could remain run-heavy, but with all the pieces in place, Smith is in that tier of team WR1 options who may not have prestige setups to break scoring at the position but are set up to lead their passing games.

When looking at him compared to guys in a similar tier, such as Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore, Smith is arguably the most appealing based on age, still having a viable quarterback, an offense capable of scoring points, and a light schedule.

Dallas Goedert’s 2026 Fantasy Value

Dallas Goedert has also received a huge lift when he has played with Brown off the field.

Since Brown joined the Eagles, Goedert has run 246 routes while Brown has been absent.

On those snaps, Goedert has been targeted on 26.4% of his routes with 2.65 yards per route run.

For some context, that target rate per route would have led all tight ends last season, while those yards per route run would have been second.

57 of those routes are also with DeVonta Smith off the field, when Goedert ballooned to a 38.6% target rate per route and 4.46 yards per route run.

But even on the 189 routes with Smith on the field, Goedert was targeted on 22.8% of those routes, averaging 2.11 yards per route run.

I believe the additions of Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers impact Goedert the most, especially given where the target shares are dispersed, the shuffling of this depth chart, and the Eagles already operating without Brown.

We also have the expected regression in store for Goedert, who is coming off a career-high 11 touchdowns.

35.7% of Goedert’s fantasy points were via touchdowns last year.

Only Colby Parkinson (36.9%) and Darren Waller (40.6%) were more touchdown reliant.

That said, even accounting for Lemon and Stowers being added and factoring in the potential regression for Goedert in the touchdown department, he still offers appeal at his current TE15 price tag, since those are already reflected in his ADP.

The Eagles still have a strong-looking passing schedule, and if either Lemon or Stowers (or both) have a slow rookie season, Goedert has a larger ceiling.

I already wrote up Makai Lemon’s addition to the Eagles on draft night under the premise that it was another signal that Brown was unlikely to be on the roster.

Lemon is currently WR35 in drafts, which is too rich for me.

I have Lemon as WR49 in preseason ranks while expecting Brown to be moved.