As a lead-up to the 2023 NFL draft, we’ve broken down the current depth chart of every NFL team and identified the biggest draft and team needs for the Buffalo Bills.

You can find additional team-by-team draft needs articles and other draft content on our 2023 NFL Draft hub.

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Who did the Bills pick in the NFL Draft?

The Buffalo Bills selected Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah) with the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

The Bills added O’Cyrus Torrence (OG, Florida) with the No. 59 pick.

Buffalo selected Dorian Williams (LB, Tulane) with the 91st pick.

Bills Draft Needs: Top Positions of Need in 2023

  1. Wide Receiver
  2. Linebacker
  3. Right Tackle Competition

What Picks do the Buffalo Bills have in 2023?

The Buffalo Bills have six picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, including:

  • Round 1 (27)
  • Round 2 (59)
  • Round 3 (91)
  • Round 4 (130)
  • Round 5 (137)
  • Round 6 (205)

Buffalo Bills Draft Capital Stats

Our Sharp Draft Value Rank is a valuation of draft capital based on a combination of average performance delivered and average dollars earned on second contracts.

This is based on two public models: performance delivered based on draft slot (the AV model created by Chase Stuart) and contractual earnings in non-rookie deals based upon draft slot (the OTC model created by Brad Spielberger and Jason Fitzgerald).

  • Bills Sharp Draft Value Rank: 24 of 32 teams
  • Bills AV Model Draft Value Rank: 24 of 32 teams
  • Bills OTC Model Draft Value Rank: 27 of 32 teams

Buffalo Bills Draft Value vs Other Teams:

The Bills’ draft value is 21% lower than the league average of all 32 teams. 23 other teams have higher draft value entering the 2023 NFL Draft.

Buffalo Bills Draft Prediction:

The Bills are predicted to draft Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU) with their 1st round pick (#27 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.

Another mock draft expert, Brendan Donahue, has the Bills predicted to draft Brian Branch (DB, Alabama) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.

Buffalo Bills Strength of Schedule, 2023

The Buffalo Bills have the second hardest NFL strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

infographic showing NFL strength of schedule for every team for the 2023 season

Buffalo Bills Offense: Depth Chart, Analysis & Draft Needs

Rich Hribar breaks down the offensive depth chart by position for the Buffalo Bills, identifying areas where the team could improve in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft.

2022 Buffalo Bills Offensive Rankings

Quarterback Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Josh Allen
  2. Kyle Allen
  3. Matt Barkley

Buffalo has Josh Allen locked up through the 2028 season, but Allen will carry an undervalued cap hit ($18.6 million) for just one more season before things ramp up and he is pushing $50 million per year.

The Bills have won double-digit games in each of the past four seasons but have made just one Conference Championship over that span.

It is all about getting over the hump at this point while they still have leverage given through Allen’s salary.

Allen was still strong last year. Despite some uneven performances by the offense to close the season, Allen still ended the 2022 season with 35 passing touchdowns and 4,283 yards.

That was the third consecutive season in which Allen threw at least 35 passing scores with over 4,000 yards through the air.

Allen closed the year second in expected points added per play (.020) behind only Patrick Mahomes among qualifying quarterbacks. On dropbacks only, Allen was fifth in EPA per play (0.12).

From a rushing perspective, Allen added another 762 yards and seven scores via his legs.

He has rushed for at least six touchdowns in all five of his years in the league. Allen’s 7.8 rushing attempts per game were a career-high.

Behind Allen, the Bills added journeyman Kyle Allen on a one-year deal and still have Matt Barkley signed for this upcoming season. Both will be unrestricted free agents next offseason.

Running Back Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. James Cook
  2. Damien Harris
  3. Nyheim Hines
  4. Reggie Gilliam (FB)

The Buffalo running game was anchored by their quarterback once again last season.

The Bills have been more vocal this offseason in alleviating Josh Allen’s rushing workload and getting more out of their backs as a whole moving forward.

Buffalo running backs combined for 291 carries in 2022, the fewest in the league.

On carries by their running backs, the Bills ranked 27th in expected points added per rush (-0.11), but that was largely impacted by Allen himself soaking up the touchdowns.

The running back group collectively rushed for 4.9 yards per carry (which was second in the NFL) and carried a 40.2% success rate (10th).

Buffalo backs had a run of 10 or more yards on 12.0% of their carries, which was ninth in the league.

The Bills let Devin Singletary leave via free agency this offseason after he led the backfield with 215 touches for 1,099 yards and six touchdowns.

His absence leaves the door open for James Cook to take on a larger role after the team selected him 63rd overall in the second round last spring.

Cook only totaled 110 touches during his rookie season, but he averaged 6.2 yards per touch.
27.0% of Cook’s 89 carries resulted in a first down or touchdown, which ranked sixth among 66 running backs last season with 50 or more carries.

In the passing game, Cook averaged 1.43 yards per route run, which was 16th among all backs to run 100 or more routes on the season.

The team added Damien Harris on a one-year contract to be more of an early and short-yardage situation runner.

Harris had eight 100-yard rushing games over his rookie contract with the Patriots with three of those coming against the Bills. They have first-hand experience in seeing the best of what Harris has to have to offer.

56.1% of Harris’ career carries have come with eight or more defenders in the box during his career (sixth in the NFL since entering the league).

Singletary was selected in the same draft as Harris and had just 25.3% of his career carries come against stacked boxes.

While the Bills can offer more runway for Harris, where his true impact can be made is aiding the power running game, which has largely just been all Josh Allen the past few seasons.

Since Harris entered the league, he has a 77.3% success rate on short-yardage carries (non-first down runs needing 1-3 yards) while Singletary had a 69.7% rate.

The Bills also still have Nyheim Hines lingering around after the team traded for him at the deadline last year. He was used primarily as a kick returner with the Bills, totaling just 11 touches on offense.

We know Hines can be a viable pass-catching back, but with Cook already having a head start in that department while being a better rusher, Hines is likely to only be an ancillary piece once again.

Hines still has two years remaining on his contract, although he does not carry any more dead money moving forward.

The Bills may not be done adding another body here, but this is still not a need area for the team since both Harris and Hines can contribute to specific areas paired with Cook’s versatility and rookie contract.

Wide Receiver Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Stefon Diggs
  2. Gabe Davis
  3. Khalil Shakir
  4. Deonte Harty
  5. Trent Sherfield
  6. Dezmon Patmon
  7. KeeSean Johnson
  8. Isaiah Coulter

This passing game is still anchored by Stefon Diggs.

Diggs accounted for 27.9% of the Buffalo targets (seventh among wide receivers), 29.9% of the receptions (third), and 33.3% of the receiving yards (sixth).

Closing the year with 108 catches for 1,428 yards and 11 touchdowns, Diggs is locked up through the 2027 season.

It is after Diggs where the Bills ran into issues last season.

The team did not get as big of a third-season jump from Gabe Davis as they hoped. He caught 48-of-93 targets for 836 yards and seven touchdowns.

He still was a splash play option, averaging 17.4 yards per catch, second in the NFL for all wideouts with 30 or more catches. 14.6% of his catches went for scores (third).

The problem is consistency between big plays for Davis.

Davis was targeted on only 16.0% of his routes (88th among receivers) and struggled again versus man coverage. He was targeted on just 12.3% of his routes against man coverage (126th) while averaging 0.78 yards per route versus man coverage (116th).

Davis did play through an early-season ankle injury that may have hampered his hopeful breakout season, but heading into the final year of his rookie contract, the Bills will surely look to add significant competition.

As a fifth-round pick with limited opportunity as a rookie, Khalil Shakir lacks the locked-in investment for snaps, but he should at minimum be in a competition for the primary slot receiver job after Isaiah McKenzie was released earlier this offseason.

Shakir flashed for 16.8 yards per catch with 6.2 yards after the catch per reception as a rookie but only managed to run 171 pass routes and draw 27 total targets.

Coming out of college, 49.7% of Shakir’s targets resulted in a first down or touchdown, second in the 2022 draft class.

Buffalo added both Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield this offseason to compete for snaps.

Harty played just 24 offensive snaps in 2022 due to injury, but a two-year deal worth up to $9.5 million does spark some intrigue here. Harty averaged 15.8 yards per catch in 2021 with the Saints.

With just Diggs, Shakir, and Harty signed beyond this season and the team not drawing a lot out of the depth behind Diggs in 2022, the Bills are far from done adding wide receivers.

Tight End Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Dawson Knox
  2. Quintin Morris
  3. Zach Davidson

Knox is a fine player, but he is not among the elite at the position.

He caught 48-of-65 targets for 517 yards and six touchdowns in 2022 after signing a four-year contract extension prior to the season.

His 14.2% target per route rate ranked 48th among tight ends while his 1.11 yards per route run ranked 37th.

Knox has scored 15 touchdowns during the past two regular seasons, but there are many players that could catch comparable touchdowns in this offense given as many opportunities.

Knox’s extension last season may prevent Buffalo from chasing one of the front-end tight ends in this class – Knox has dead cap hits of $26.1 million and $20.2 million the next two seasons – but the team could use more dynamic playmaking and a true target earner. This draft has those options.

Quintin Morris did pop in that department in the preseason a year ago but then only ran 167 routes, catching 10-of-14 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown.

Zach Davidson is signed for the next two seasons but has yet to catch a past in the NFL after being selected in the fifth round of the 2021 draft by Minnesota.

Offensive Line Depth Chart, Bills:

LT: Dion Dawkins/Tommy Doyle/Ryan Van Demark
LG: Connor McGovern/David Edwards
C: Mitch Morse/Greg Mancz
RG: Ryan Bates/Ike Boettger
RT: Spencer Brown/David Quessenberry/Alec Anderson

The Bills ran into issues up front last season, primarily through availability.

Buffalo used 12 different offensive line combinations for double-digit snaps in 2022 while their primary starting five logged just 42.3% of the snaps together.

Rodger Saffold was the only Buffalo lineman to appear in all 18 games last season, and he carried their lowest grade at Pro Football Focus.

The team moved on from Saffold after just one year, signing veteran Conner McGovern to a three-year contract to play left guard.

McGovern was the 65th graded guard at Pro Football Focus (Saffold was 77th), but he was 14th in pass blocking grade while Saffold was 68th.

Pro Bowl left tackle Dion Dawkins is signed for the next two seasons while all of Dawkins, McGovern, Ryan Bates, Mitch Morse, and Spencer Brown are signed through 2024.

The team has contractual depth here as well with Tommy Doyle, Ryan Van Demark, and Alec Anderson all signed for multiple seasons.

Right tackle is the only position that remains more of an open conversation for competition.

The team still has Brown signed through 2024, but he does not have contractual leverage ($1.3 and $1.6 million for those seasons) and had a down 2022 season in allowing an 8.1% pressure rate, which was 80th out of 95 tackles to play over 100 pass blocking snaps.

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Buffalo Bills Defense: Depth Chart, Analysis & Draft Needs

Dan Pizzuta breaks down the defensive depth chart by position for the Buffalo Bills, identifying areas where the team could improve in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft.

2022 Buffalo Bills Defensive Rankings

Interior Defensive Line Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Ed Oliver
  2. DaQuan Jones
  3. Tim Settle
  4. Jordan Phillips
  5. Eli Ankou
  6. Brandin Bryant
  7. Kendal Vickers
  8. Cortez Broughton

Ed Oliver matched his 14 quarterback hits from 2021 but only had 2.5 sacks in 2022. That 17.9% conversion rate suggests there is potential for more sacks to come.

Oliver has remained a disruptive interior defensive lineman, but he’ll be playing 2023 on his fifth-year option with an extension decision looming.

Oliver was fifth among defensive tackles in ESPN’s run stop win rate, and DaQuan Jones was sixth. The Bills were eighth in EPA per play against the run in 2022, per TruMedia.

Having those two able to stop the run is a plus for the Bills since most of the depth has been built on getting a pass rush inside.

Buffalo also keeps a fairly healthy rotation of linemen, both inside and on the edge. Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle played around 30% of the defensive snaps last season.

EDGE Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Von Miller
  2. Greg Rosseau
  3. Boogie Basham
  4. A.J. Epenesa
  5. Kingsley Jonathan

Von Miller was having a great season before a torn ACL suffered on Thanksgiving.

Miller had eight sacks and was sixth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate among edge rushers. His presence on the field also helped open up opportunities for others on the edge.

Miller has said he expects to be ready for the 2023 season.

Greg Rosseau was one of the main beneficiaries of Miller on the field.

With Miller, Rousseau had a 17.1% pressure rate overall and a 10.9% pressure rate within 2.5 seconds of the snap. 23.7% of his pressures converted into sacks.

Without Miller, Rousseau still had an impressive 13.9% pressure rate, but just 6.7% of pressures came within 2.5 seconds of the snap and 15.2% of his pressures converted into sacks.

The Bills took multiple swings over the past few seasons to fortify the pass rush, but some of those swings haven’t worked as planned.

Boogie Basham had the lowest pressure rate on the team in 2022 and has just eight quarterback hits over two seasons.

A.J. Epenesa had a career-high 10 quarterback hits and six sacks last season, but it took three seasons for some of his pass rushing skill to click. 2023 will be the final year of his rookie contract.

Off-ball Linebacker Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Matt Milano
  2. Tyrel Dodson
  3. Terrel Bernard
  4. Tyler Matakevich
  5. Baylon Spector

Matt Milano is one of the best linebackers in the league and was finally rewarded with a second-team All-Pro selection to prove it.

Milano made an impact everywhere. He led the team with 18 run stuffs, which ranked seventh in the league. He also had 12 tackles for loss, 11 passes defensed, and 19 pressures as the only player in the league with that specific triple-double.

The question is what do the Bills do next to him?

No team uses more nickel personnel than the Bills, who had two linebackers on the field for 95% of their defensive snaps in 2022. With Tremaine Edmunds gone, that second spot opens up.

Tyrel Dodson, a 2019 undrafted free agent, played 21% of the defensive snaps and started three games in 2022, but just 43% of his tackles produced a positive play for the defense.

2022 third-round pick Terrell Bernard played 10% of the defensive snaps as a rookie.

Cornerback Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Tre’Davious White
  2. Kaiir Elam
  3. Taron Johnson
  4. Dane Jackson
  5. Christian Benford
  6. Siran Neal
  7. Kyler McMichael
  8. Ja’Marcus Ingram

Tre’Davious White did not return until Week 12 last season, and it took him a bit to get back in his groove. Now fully healthy, White is expected to be the top corner for the 2023 season.

Dane Jackson was the top outside corner without White. He was about average in coverage, finishing 40th among 87 outside corners in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap.

Jackson was brought back as a restricted free agent but is not signed beyond 2023.

Taron Johnson was fine as the team’s slot corner, ranking 28th among slot corners in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap. He’s signed through the 2024 season.

The Bills made an effort to bring in youth at the position.

Kaiir Elam was the team’s first-round pick, but he struggled to get on the field early in the season. He eventually ranked 54th among outside corners in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap.

2022 sixth-round pick Christian Benford was a pleasant surprise, ranking 31st in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap on the outside.

Safety Depth Chart, Bills:

  1. Micah Hyde
  2. Jordan Poyer
  3. Taylor Rapp
  4. Cam Lewis
  5. Jared Mayden
  6. Zayne Anderson
  7. Damar Hamlin

In previous seasons, the Bills heavily relied on their two safeties to play almost all of the defensive snaps, but last season Micah Hyde was injured early in the season and Jordan Poyer missed time.

The Bills were able to keep that duo intact and will hope they can continue to play together.

Poyer was a threat to leave in free agency, but the 32-year-old re-signed on a two-year deal this offseason. Hyde is technically in the final year of his contract as it voids for 2024.

Buffalo signed Taylor Rapp as perhaps the best third safety this team has had in the Hyde-Poyer era. However, he only signed a one-year deal.

Safety isn’t a top-heavy position in this draft, but there could be some useful depth found on Day 2 and beyond.

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