The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren’s deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as penalty analysis from Joe Gibbs. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
Penalties are an under-discussed aspect of NFL success and failure. Average teams can become playoff contenders with good discipline, and good teams can become great simply by winning the penalty battle.
Let’s look at how the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Arizona Cardinals performed from a penalty perspective in 2023 and where they can improve in 2024.
How Did Penalties Impact the San Francisco 49ers?
The Good
- The offense accounted for 45% of the team’s penalties. This offense is well-equipped to recover yardage surrendered via penalty. The percentage could be in the mid-50% range and be acceptable
- The offensive line was responsible for 25% of the team’s penalties
- The defense led the NFL in surrendering automatic first downs via penalties on second down plays. Additionally, they ranked 20th in surrendering third down plays. There is evidence committing a penalty early provides leeway on later downs, and the 49ers’ stats strengthen that argument
- A below-average 20% of the 49ers’ overall penalties occurred on third down plays
- The 49ers committed a below-average 22% of their penalties in the fourth quarter of games
The Bad
- The 49ers ranked fourth in defensive pre-snap penalties per game. Defensive offsides was the primary contributor to this statistic. Unlike other defensive units who ranked highly in this category, the 49ers’ infractions did not equate to excessive penalties on their opponents
- The defense was anemic at generating pre-snap infractions on opposing offenses, ranking 29th per game
- The defense ranked last at generating offensive holding penalties on opposing offenses. For what it’s worth, the Houston Texans with DeMeco Ryans increased their output in this category similar to the 49ers level in the 2022 season. This may be an anomaly because this defense should rank higher in this key category
San Francisco is running it back with the same core group from the overtime loss in Super Bowl XLVIII, in what amounts to a last dance type season for this roster as it is currently constructed.
Schematically, Kyle Shanahan will always have this offense as a premier unit in the NFL. There will be a handful of games this season in which the 49ers click on all cylinders and are untouchable.
The problem is those performances will be fewer and farther between.
The NFL is a war of attrition, and the 49ers remained uncharacteristically healthy last season. Compounding that, the league has done this team no favors from a scheduling perspective in 2024.
San Francisco will remain a quality team. However, regression is certain as the law of averages and NFL history loom large over the 49ers this season.
How Did Penalties Impact the Los Angeles Rams?
The Good
- The Rams ranked 30th in offensive pre-snap penalties per game and 31st in defensive pre-snap penalties per game. No team was more efficient pre-snap at the line of scrimmage than the Rams in 2023
- The offensive line accounted for a below-average 20% of the team’s penalties
- The offense accounted for 51% of the team’s penalties with the wide receivers and tight ends contributing a much higher percentage of these penalties than the NFL average. This is simply a byproduct of the Sean McVay system where blocking responsibilities are spread more evenly across the board
- Just 21% of overall Rams penalties occurred on third down plays
- The offense ranked second in beneficial pre-snap infractions on opposing defenses, behind only the Miami Dolphins
- The defense was ranked in the middle tier of units surrendering automatic first downs via penalties. More importantly, only 22% of penalties occurred on third down plays
- The Rams ranked 28th in declined penalties per game
- Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua ranked highly at drawing defensive pass interference penalties on defensive backs. This was a lackluster category for the Rams before 2023, but things are changing with the emergence of these young receivers
- A below-average 19.5% of the Rams’ overall penalties occurred in the fourth quarter
The Bad
- The Rams were an above-average penalized team for face mask and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. Neither is a high volume infraction, and face mask penalties may be the most random of any category. We had to dig deep for negatives, and these two categories fit the bill for an otherwise very disciplined Rams team
Sean McVay’s teams consistently rank among the most efficient, and last season was no exception. There is no reason to believe that won’t continue in 2024.
There aren’t many negatives to run through with this team. This is a well run organization from top to bottom.
The health of the core players will be paramount, but the same can be said for most teams. A repeat of the highly productive 2023 draft class would go a long way to fortifying what is already a solid roster.
The early bye week may be a blessing in disguise as they face a tough stretch of games right out of the gate. If they can navigate the early schedule unscathed, the Rams have the structure and talent to make a deep playoff run in 2024.
How Did Penalties Impact the Seattle Seahawks?
The Good
- The defense was the No. 1 generator of false starts on opponents when playing at home last season. New Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald’s Ravens defense ranked fourth in this category last season. Seattle is a perfect landing spot for him
- The defensive numbers in allowing automatic first downs via penalties mirrored the Ravens in 2023. The only difference was the higher defensive holding numbers by Baltimore. The point is there is a natural alignment for Macdonald heading from one unit to the next in their defensive approach
- The offensive line accounted for just 23% of the team’s overall penalties
- DK Metcalf was a top-five beneficiary of defensive pass interference penalties
The Bad
- The Seahawks ranked in the top five in both penalties and penalty yards surrendered per game
- The Seahawks ranked fourth in penalties per game on the road, continuing their road penalty woes from 2022. The positive is this team has nine home games in 2023
- The offense ranked fifth in offensive pre-snap penalties per game. Geno Smith isn’t good enough to continually overcome these setbacks. These penalty issues contributed to the offense ranking 32nd in average time of possession in 2023
- The Seahawks were an above-average penalized team for roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness. Again, very similar to the Ravens, but without the winning pedigree attached to it
The Seahawks were undisciplined throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons, a factor that likely didn’t go unnoticed by ownership in their dismissal of Pete Carroll.
New Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald left no confusion to the team’s approach under his leadership.
“We’re trying to get back to Super Bowls, playing elite defense and smashing people up front,” was the takeaway statement from his introductory press conference.
Seattle used the draft to improve its offensive and defensive lines, and Macdonald will install a Ravens-like mentality from the opening snap of the season.
Despite having above-average offensive talent, limiting Geno Smith’s exposure and winning via the run game and the aforementioned smash-mouth defense would be the surest path to success.
The Seahawks have a manageable early schedule and the added benefit of nine home games.
The foundation is in place for Macdonald to elevate this roster in 2024. Seattle will be a playoff contender but not a serious Super Bowl threat until they can find a long-term answer at the quarterback position.
How Did Penalties Impact the Arizona Cardinals?
The Good
- A below-average 33% of Cardinals penalties occurred on pre-snap penalties, although a disproportionate 85% of these were committed by the offense
The Bad
- The offense was responsible for 57% of the team’s overall penalties, ranking them in the top five for offensive penalties per game
- The Cardinals were an above-average penalized offense for false start and offensive holding. This has been standard operating procedure in the Kyler Murray era and in all likelihood continues in 2024
- The defense was a top-10 penalized unit against passing plays with defensive pass interference and defensive holding the primary contributors to the high ranking
- Only 9% of the Cardinals’ pre-snap penalties were committed by the defense, well below the 22% league average in this category. That resulted in an anemic ranking at generating penalties on opposing offenses, ranking 31st in the league
Perhaps the biggest endorsement of Jonathan Gannon was the fall-off from the Eagles after his departure.
Despite limited talent, the Cardinals were competitive even with the absence of their franchise quarterback for half the season. From a penalty perspective, they have significant room to improve.
The Cardinals finished with only four wins but played much better down the stretch.
Having Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. from the outset in 2024 will ensure that the Cardinals are one of the more exciting offenses in the NFL.
Aside from the highlight plays, the offense overall will be more efficient. Fewer three-and-outs by the offense equates to less pressure on the defense.
Whether that’s enough to compete for a playoff berth remains to be seen.
Like most teams, the health of key players will be paramount. If Murray plays the majority of games, doubling up to eight wins is possible for the Cardinals in 2024.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
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