The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as penalty analysis from Joe Gibbs. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
Penalties are an under-discussed aspect of NFL success and failure. Average teams can become playoff contenders with good discipline, and good teams can become great simply by winning the penalty battle.
Let's look at how the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans performed from a penalty perspective in 2023 and where they can improve in 2024.
How Did Penalties Impact the Houston Texans?
The Good
- The offense accounted for 47% of the team's overall penalties, There is no correct number in this category. If the Texans' trajectory continues upward, the offense could easily handle 55% of overall penalties and still be efficient
- The offense was a top-10 beneficiary of pre-snap penalties on opposing defenses in 2024. They were particularly effective at drawing defensive offsides infractions
- The defense ranked second for defensive pass interference penalties. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, as the team played from in front quite often. Committing a penalty can sometimes be a strategically smart move
- A below-average 22% of Texans penalties occurred in the fourth quarter of games
The Bad
- The Texans were the No. 1 penalized road team in 2023. That contributed to a 4-5 overall road record including their playoff game at Baltimore
- The offense ranked 10th for false start penalties per game, largely due to their road issues. The Texans were the No. 1 penalized road team in this key category
- The Texans defense surrendered 48% of automatic first downs on third down plays. That percentage needs to decline in 2024
- An above-average 29% of Texans penalties occurred on third down plays
- The special teams unit was a top-10 penalized group in 2023, with that unit accounting for 13.5% of the team's overall penalties
The Texans have nine road games in 2024, so cleaning up their penalty issues away from home is essential if they want to be serious contenders.
The Texans are possibly the most hyped team heading into the season. Using Wall Street parlance, the pre-season outlook around this team could be described as irrational exuberance.
Predictions of a 12-5 or 13-4 type season in Houston seem overly optimistic. On the surface, it seems a no-brainer. A 10-win team adding big-time playmakers has to improve, right?
The addition of Stefon Diggs to a young Texans offense is playing with fire. History suggests if he feels underutilized, then it could be a real case of “Houston, we have a problem.” Team chemistry could be a potential issue if that scenario unfolds.
The Texans may win the AFC South again. Chances are they will achieve that with a 10-7 record, giving them a home game in the Wild Card Round.
A Divisional Round appearance could be the ceiling for this team like it was last season. Generally, that would be viewed as a successful season for a young team, but based on the bullish preseason expectations for the Texans, that result would be considered a major disappointment.
Houston is one of the more intriguing teams, but the valuation is extremely high as we head into the 2024 NFL season.
How Did Penalties Impact the Indianapolis Colts?
The Good
- The Colts were a slightly below-average penalized team in both penalties and yardage per game
- The offense was a top-10 beneficiary of pre-snap penalties on the opposing defense, registering a big increase from their 2022 numbers. These numbers are driven by creating doubt in the mind of the defense. It highlights the impact of an offensive-minded coach like Shane Steichen
- The defense was a top-10 unit at forcing pre-snap infractions on opposing offenses. Indianapolis shared similarities with Cleveland and Buffalo in this category
- The special teams unit was one of the least penalized units in 2023
The Bad
- Defensive pre-snap penalties were an issue for the Colts. Primary contributors were neutral zone infractions and defensive offsides.
- The defense accounted for 38% of the team's pre-snap infractions, well above the league average of 22% in this category. This is not necessarily bad, as we are seeing a correlation between high defensive pre-snap penalties resulting in excessive penalties on opposing offenses. It's something worth monitoring in 2024
No coach's stock rose more dramatically than Shane Steichen’s last season, as he engineered the Colts to within one quarter of a playoff berth with a backup quarterback.
Meanwhile, the offense in Philadelphia was a shell of the unit that he orchestrated to within a few plays of a Super Bowl victory in 2022.
That said, the Colts are back to square one as we approach the kickoff to 2024. Anthony Richardson was considered a raw but talented project entering last season. Not much has changed after injuries limited him to only four games in 2023.
Questions remain about his skillset to be an effective NFL quarterback long-term and his ability to stay healthy.
Colts management nailed it with the hiring of Steichen, ending their search for a big-time head coach.
For this team to take the next step, the Colts need Richardson to be their answer at quarterback. This franchise has used stop-gap solutions resulting in constant turnover at the position since the retirement of Andrew Luck.
If Richardson can be that guy, this team will be a playoff contender in 2024. Furthermore, that coach and quarterback combination will ensure the foundation is set for the Colts franchise moving forward.
How Did Penalties Impact the Jacksonville Jaguars?
The Good
- The offense was responsible for 63% of the team's penalties and 54% of the team's overall penalty yards. While that is above average, they had the offensive wherewithal to overcome penalty setbacks better than most
- The offense ranked second as a beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalties
- The offense was the No. 1 beneficiary of defensive pass interference penalties, led by now departed wide receiver Calvin Ridley
- The Jaguars ranked No. 1 in net penalty yards per game, although that per-game advantage declined down the stretch of the 2023 season compared to the first half of the season
- The defense surrendered the fewest automatic first downs via penalties on key third down plays
The Bad
- An above-average 57% of Jaguars penalties were via pre-snap infractions with 40% of these penalties occurring in two categories: false start and delay of game
- The defense was the least penalized unit in the NFL. While on the surface that seems positive, committing penalties is occasionally the smart play. The fact is that the Jaguars need to implement this strategy more regularly
Before 2023, the belief was the Jaguars had a hold on the AFC South in the years ahead. That narrative changed quickly with the emergence of the Houston Texans last season.
Strictly from a penalty perspective, there were a lot of positives with the Jaguars. In back-to-back seasons with Doug Pederson, this team is one of the more efficient in the NFL.
Jacksonville is disciplined but perhaps too buttoned up on the defensive side of the ball. They need to be more physical. Simply put, officials cannot call every defensive hold, so hold more often.
New Jaguars DC Ryan Nielsen will implement a more hands-on approach for this defensive unit, which is sorely needed.
The Jaguars lost to the 49ers, Ravens, and Chiefs by a combined scoreline of 74-19 last season. To make matters worse, all three games were played at home.
That's the major concern with Jacksonville. Their inability to rise to the occasion versus elite opponents. The Jaguars are put to the test immediately in 2024 with a difficult first half schedule.
We’ll know early on if this team is legit. The Jaguars have talented players, but the team requires a major attitude adjustment and a different approach in big games to be a playoff contender.
How Did Penalties Impact the Tennessee Titans?
The Good
- The offense accounted for 47% of overall team penalties but only 36.5% of the team's overall penalty yardage
- The Titans were a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first down penalties. This number is skewed in part because the team played from behind at a high rate in 2023, but the fact is they were effective at drawing penalties
- The offense was a top-five unit at generating pre-snap penalties on opposing defenses. The presence of Derrick Henry at running back on short-yardage plays was the primary catalyst for this number
The Bad
- The Titans were a top-10 penalized team in 2023
- The defense generated the fewest false starts on opponents in 2023 after ranking third in 2022. That represented the largest year-over-year decline of any defensive unit
- The defense ranked No. 1 surrendering automatic first downs via penalties
- The Titans were an above-average penalized defense in four key categories: defensive holding, defensive pass interference, illegal contact, and roughing the passer
- An above-average 32% of the Titans' overall penalties were committed on third downs, well above the 25% league average
- The Titans ranked second behind the Lions in surrendering automatic first down penalties on all important third down plays. The key difference is Detroit was playing from ahead in most games whereas Tennessee was not. This is an area that needs to improve in 2024
- An above-average 89% of the Titans' pre-snap infractions were committed by the offense
Despite not generating a lot of headlines nationally, the Titans have had an incredible offseason. However, the influx of new talent and overhaul of the coaching staff requires a lot of pieces to align.
Rookie head coach Brian Callahan is tasked with putting those pieces together. Callahan has overseen the Bengals offense the last three seasons and is a highly regarded offensive mind.
His father Bill Callahan is in Nashville with him to coach the offensive line, which is his area of expertise. He has work to do, with the Titans allowing the fourth most sacks in 2023 and ranking second for false start infractions.
The Titans have more “ifs” than most teams heading into 2024, and expectations are low.
Will Levis is a wild card at quarterback, and it's a prove-it season for him. The Titans have surrounded him with ample talent at skill positions, so there are no excuses to not succeed.
A definitive answer on the viability of Levis as the team's long-term quarterback is the primary objective this season. The Titans will go as he goes in 2024, and if he can deliver, this can be a surprise team in the AFC.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
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