The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2024 Football Preview book. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps as well as penalty analysis from Joe Gibbs. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2024 Football Preview.
Penalties are an under-discussed aspect of NFL success and failure. Average teams can become playoff contenders with good discipline, and good teams can become great simply by winning the penalty battle.
Let's look at how the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears performed from a penalty perspective in 2023 and where they can improve in 2024.
How Did Penalties Impact the Detroit Lions?
The Good
- The offense accounted for 47% of the Lions’ overall penalties Ideally, that percentage on the offense will increase in 2024 as the defense reduces its overall share of penalties
- The offensive line was one of the best in the NFL, responsible for just 27% of the team's overall penalties. The Lions' numbers in this regard were similar to the Eagles. If there is a unit you want to be compared with, the line in Philadelphia is that group.
- The tight ends and wide receivers were both below-average penalized units in 2023
- Jared Goff ranked second as a roughing the passer penalty beneficiary after ranking No. 1 in 2022. While not ideal to have your quarterback in harm's way, the reality is that they are going to be hit occasionally. It's better to be the beneficiary of an impactful judgment call than the alternative, and the Lions benefitted more than most in 2023
- The Lions, along with the Eagles, had the fewest declined penalties in the NFL. It's a stat that flies under the radar, but one worth noting. A penalty is declined only because something more egregious occurred. The Lions avoided that better than anyone in 2023
The Bad
- The offense was a top-five penalized unit for delay of game infractions. Detroit was the most penalized road team in this category last season. The positive is they have only eight road games in 2024
- The defense ranked first in surrendering automatic first downs on key third down plays. Surrendering penalties isn't necessarily a bad thing in certain situations, but committing them on third down is a killer. This needs to improve in 2024
In the world of sports, a team exceeding expectations is the exception, not the rule.
The Lions did just that in 2023. Despite a bitter ending in the NFC Championship, Detroit left no doubts they belong among the elite teams in the NFL.
Offensively, the Lions were a well-oiled machine and extremely efficient from a penalty perspective.
There is significant room for improvement on defense. The Lions front office wasted no time in addressing their weaknesses via free agency and the draft.
Detroit is stacked with talent, and the majority of these players are just entering their prime.
The Lions are the potential beneficiary of a scheduling aberration this season. In the scenario that Detroit secures the #1 seed in the NFC and advances to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, 17 of their 20 games will be played indoors on a fast track. That's the ideal surface for this offense to excel.
Outside of the Kansas City Chiefs, no team will have a bigger target on it than the Detroit Lions. They will get everyone's best shot in 2024.
After last season's success, the bar has been raised even higher heading into the 2024 season.
It's Super Bowl or bust for the Detroit Lions. Anything less will be viewed as a failure.
How Did Penalties Impact the Green Bay Packers?
The Good
- The Packers had a horrendous start to the 2023 season from a penalty perspective. However, they clicked after Week 9, averaging just 5.3 penalties per game for 44.6 yards and a 7-4 record
- The offense was only average at benefitting from automatic first downs via penalties, but they led the NFL in average yards gained per infraction.
- Because of the high average, no offense benefited from more penalty yards than the Packers in 2023
- Green Bay had an NFL-leading 59% of their beneficial automatic first down via penalties occurring on first down plays. They took deep shots early which resulted in additional penalty yards on an unsuspecting defense. While it may not show up on stat sheets, that willingness to throw deep early opens things up on future downs
The Bad
- Through nine weeks of the season, the Packers were the No. 1 penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.5 per game for 60.1 yards. That contributed in part to a 3-5 start to the season for a young team that looked disorganized at times
- The Packers committed 24% of their overall penalties on fourth down. The positive here for Green Bay was the penalty splits, with 70% of infractions occurring in the first half of the season versus only 30% in the second half and playoffs
- The special teams unit was a top-five penalized group for the second consecutive season
The Packers aren't a franchise synonymous with undisciplined football. Yet, they were in the unfamiliar spot of being the No. 1 penalized team at the midway point of the 2023 season.
Fortunately, the penalties declined, and Green Bay was as dangerous as any team in the NFL down the stretch and into the playoffs.
The offensive approach from Green Bay could be termed as unorthodox and even reckless at times. That creates big plays but can also get them in trouble. Their offensive variance is as dramatic as any team in the NFL. When the Packers are on their game, they are unstoppable.
The Packers fortified the defense via the draft and free agency. New DC Jeff Hafley is nicknamed “The Wizard.” Expect more aggressive schemes and a potential top-10 defense in Green Bay this season.
This Packers roster is loaded with young talent that has an immense upside and is yet to enter their prime.
Heading into 2024, the situation in Green Bay is as straightforward as it gets. Can they pick up where they left off last season? If they can, they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
How Did Penalties Impact the Minnesota Vikings?
The Good
- The Vikings ranked in the bottom third of teams in penalties and penalty yardage per game
- The offense was responsible for 62% of the team's overall penalties and 56.6% of the overall penalty yardage
- The offense was a top-five beneficiary of automatic first down penalties. This is a category they have excelled in since the arrival of Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota
- The defense was responsible for just 23.6% of the team's penalties, the lowest of any team in the NFL. In terms of straight-up hard numbers, they were the least penalized defense in 2023
- The defense ranked 31st in automatic first downs surrendered via penalty, an impressive feat in Brian Flores’ first season
- Only 20% of the Vikings' penalties occurred on key third down plays
The Bad
- The Vikings led the NFL in delay of game infractions in 2023. This one category accounted for 13% of the team's overall penalties
- Intentional grounding was an area the Vikings uncharacteristically led the NFL in. It's not a high volume infraction but extremely impactful due to the loss of down on the play
- An above-average 46% of the Vikings’ penalties occurred on pre-snap infractions. Despite the high percentage, the hard numbers aren't overwhelming and are fixable. The constant shuffle at the quarterback position also contributed to this high count
Brian Flores worked wonders with the defense, delivering one of the best single-season turnarounds in the NFL.
The Vikings were hitting their stride before Kirk Cousins' Achilles injury. It was a case of “what if” as the team faded late in the season with subpar quarterback play.
The juxtaposition of Kirk Cousins’ performance in Atlanta versus Kevin O’Connell’s ability to coach up rookie J.J. McCarthy will be an interesting side note in 2024.
The in-division rivalry pitting McCarthy against Caleb Williams provides an additional angle of intrigue. The reality is that McCarthy steps into the optimal situation for a rookie quarterback with an elite offensive head coach and playing the majority of his games indoors.
Despite a solid roster, it's a huge ask to expect a Vikings playoff berth in 2024 in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. An eight-win season with McCarthy unquestionably being “the guy” would be considered a success and ensure the future is bright in Minnesota.
How Did Penalties Impact the Chicago Bears?
The Good
- The defense ranked 24th in surrendering automatic first downs. They were able to accomplish this while being one of the more physical defensive units in the NFL
- The special teams unit ranked 31st in penalties per game
The Bad
- The offense was responsible for 56% of the team's overall penalties. That's acceptable for a competent offense. For an offensively challenged unit, it's too high
- The offense was tied with the Patriots in generating the fewest automatic first downs via penalties
- The offense was the primary culprit for an above-average 41% of overall team penalties being committed pre-snap. They were a top-10 penalized unit in this category
- The Bears were the only offense to not benefit from a roughing the passer penalty in 2023
- The offense generated the fewest pre-snap penalties on opposing defenses in 2023. That is a result of very little pre-snap motion and a vanilla offensive scheme
From a penalty perspective, the offense will be a big improver in several key categories detailed above.
The front office in Chicago has constructed a playoff-caliber roster, and that has brought with it sky-high expectations.
Expect an increase in offensive holding penalties with Caleb Williams at quarterback. Chicago’s numbers in this category will mirror what has transpired in Kansas City since the arrival of Patrick Mahomes.
That's the cost of doing business when your quarterback can extend plays, putting additional pressure on his offensive line. The payback though can far outweigh the cost if you have “the guy.”
Now it's a matter of your confidence level in head coach Matt Eberflus and a rookie quarterback to navigate Chicago on the road ahead.
While there is skepticism around Eberflus’ ability to be a head coach, he deserves credit for having the defense playing well. However, there is tangible pressure on him to have this team winning early and often in 2024.
If the Bears were a stock, you'd be buying them at an awfully high price prior to the season. New pieces have to align immediately for this team to take advantage of their favorable early-season schedule.
If that occurs, this Bears team will be right in the mix late into the season, and the payoff could be a playoff berth in Williams’ rookie season.
This analysis continues in the 2024 Football Preview
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