We break down why you should take the Over on Derek Carr passing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the over
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Derek Carr:
- 4499.5 passing yards at BetMGM
- 4400.5 passing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
- 4450.5 passing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
Why you should bet the Over:
- Head coach Josh McDaniels adapts to his players
- Davante Adams provides an upgrade at receiver
Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is more than 300 yards lower than his yardage total from the 2021 season 一 a year in which he dealt with a coaching change and the loss of his leading receiver (Henry Ruggs III) after just seven games.
If Carr could top 4,800 yards with those hurdles, the over on these props look like a good bet.
#1 Reason to Bet the Over for Derek Carr
The relatively modest numbers for Carr may be a reflection of some recency bias in regards to the expected impact Josh McDaniels has on the Las Vegas offense. Over the past two seasons in New England, McDaniels’s offenses ranked 31st and 25th in pass attempts. And even in his final seasons with Tom Brady, McDaniels scaled back his aggressiveness in the passing game.
However, McDaniels was also Brady’s offensive coordinator during some of his record-setting seasons 一 most notably his 50-touchdown performance in 2007.
McDaniels has a strong track record of adapting his offense to fit his weapons, and he’ll have plenty to work with in Las Vegas.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over for Derek Carr
Davante Adams will obviously be one of those weapons, and offers a significant upgrade for Carr, especially for his ability to produce after the catch.
Based on route-adjusted data from TruMedia, Raiders pass-catchers picked up 3.8% more yardage after the catch than expected, ranked ninth in the league. That production was despite Zay Jones generating 20% fewer yards after the catch than expected on his 47 receptions, which ranked 90th in the NFL.
The addition of Adams (3.2% above expected) will further enhance the team’s ability to produce explosive plays, even on Carr’s shorter throws.
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