We break down why you should take the Over on Justin Fields passing yards player prop bet for the upcoming 2022 NFL season.
Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop Bet: Why you should bet the over
Current Passing Yards Over/Under for Justin Fields:
- 3299.5 passing yards at BetMGM
- 3335.5 passing yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
Why you should bet the Over:
- Bears new coaching staff will help Fields
- Fields should improve his performance versus pressure
In his 10 starts in 2021, Justin Fields averaged 187 yards per game, putting him on pace for 3,179 over a full 17-game schedule. He would need only a moderate improvement in that pace to hit the over on these props.
#1 Reason to Bet the Over for Justin Fields
Although we don’t know much about the Bears’ offensive coaches 一 offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will be calling plays for the first time 一 it’s hard to imagine this staff isn’t an upgrade over Matt Nagy and his crew.
Nothing epitomized Nagy’s incompetency more than the game plan in Fields’s first career start against Cleveland, during which 17% of his pass attempts came as RPOs.
This was problematic because Fields didn’t use RPOs often at Ohio State (8% of his pass attempts) and struggled when he did (-5.8 EPA on RPOs).
Fields will likely have better game plans to execute under Getsy than he did during his rookie year.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over for Justin Fields
Although Fields struggled as a rookie, it wasn’t unexpected due to his inability to handle pressure at Ohio State.
During his final season in college, Fields was sacked or scrambled on 33% of his dropbacks versus pressure 一 a rate which climbed to a league-high 42% in his rookie year.
However, Fields showed improved willingness to stay in the pocket versus pressure as the season wore on. Through his first eight games, his sack/scramble rate sat at 49%, per TruMedia 一 a rate which would obviously suppress his passing numbers.
Over his final four starts, Fields’s sack/scramble rate dropped to 33%.
If Fields continues to become more comfortable keeping his eyes downfield and throwing the ball in the face of pressure, his passing numbers should continue to climb 一 and we have some reason to believe a more competent coaching staff will help Fields’s continued development in this area.
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