The Super Bowl LVI matchup is set between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
Here’s a dive into some longshot prop bets you should consider this week.
BEN SKOWRONEK: ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN PROP
With the news that Rams tight end Tyler Higbee is unlikely to practice this week, the odds of rookie receiver Ben Skowronek playing a role in the offense have increased. However, some sportsbooks haven’t fully adjusted, making Skowronek’s anytime touchdown prop a good value.
Here’s a look at where Skowronek’s touchdown prop is listed at a few popular sportsbooks:
- Anytime touchdown: +1200 on BetMGM
- Anytime touchdown: +800 on DraftKings Sportsbook
- Anytime touchdown: +470 on FanDuel Sportsbook
In the NFC Championship Game, Skowronek played 21 snaps, 17 of which came after Higbee’s injury, according to TruMedia/PFF.
Though Skowronek is not a perfect replacement for Higbee, he is capable of taking on some of Higbee’s workload. At 6’3”, he’s able to play Higbee’s role as the big slot receiver in the Rams’ offense as an alternative to Cooper Kupp.
Matthew Stafford also showed some trust in Skowronek against the San Francisco 49ers, giving him a touchdown opportunity on the deep ball (although it was dropped).
KENDALL BLANTON: FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER PROP
Another way to profit off the potential absence of Higbee is to place a bet on backup tight end Kendall Blanton as the game’s first touchdown scorer:
- First touchdown: +1000 on BetMGM
- First touchdown: +1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook
- First touchdown: +1500 on FanDuel Sportsbook
Inside the 10-yard line, Higbee is second on the Rams in target share (16.9%) and tight ends account for 18.6% of Stafford’s targets, according to TruMedia.
Following Higbee’s injury last week, Blanton stepped right into his role, playing a season-high 61 snaps with a season-high five targets. So it appears as though Stafford trusts Blanton in Higbee’s role and he should be considered a strong candidate to reach the end zone in this matchup.
VONN BELL & JESSIE BATES: INTERCEPTION PROP
I’ve already written about taking the over on Stafford’s interception prop, and we may be able to predict who will snag the interception as well.
Based on Stafford’s track record, a safety is most likely to haul in the interception, so placing bets on both Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates could be a profitable strategy at these available lines:
- Vonn Bell to record an interception: +600 on BetMGM
- Vonn Bell to record an interception: +800 on DraftKings Sportsbook
- Jessie Bates to record an interception: +400 on BetMGM
- Jessie Bates to record an interception: +500 on DraftKings Sportsbook
Safeties have recorded 11 of Stafford’s 18 interceptions this season (61%), including nine of the 13 interceptions Stafford has thrown while targeting receivers lined up in the slot (69%), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Bell and Bates only have two interceptions apiece this season, but in this particular matchup, their odds appear to be increased.
It’s also worth mentioning the MVP odds for Bell (+15000) and Bates (+20000). These are obviously extreme longshots, but when defensive players win the MVP, critical interceptions are often the reason.
JA’MARR CHASE: SUPER BOWL MVP PROP
Though Ja’Marr Chase is certainly on the shortlist of legitimate MVP candidates, with his MVP odds at +1600, he can still be considered a long shot.
I previously wrote about taking the over on Chase’s longest reception prop, and similar logic should lead us to consider him an MVP candidate.
Chase has accounted for 14 of the Bengals’ 32 pass plays of 30 or more yards this season (44%).
Though Tee Higgins (+5000) has longer odds and is capable of producing comparable numbers to Chase, he doesn’t generate the big plays likely necessary for a receiver to win this award. Higgins has just five receptions of 30 or more yards.
If this game turns into a shootout, the quarterbacks will be the overwhelming MVP favorites. However, if a close, low-scoring game is decided by a long reception by Chase, it would be possible for him to win the award over Joe Burrow.