Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Bills Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Bills win this season?
The Bills are predicted to win 11.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Bills Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Bills’ front office had a solid offseason and a good team got even better; the Bills are Super Bowl favorites for a reason.
The addition of Von Miller helps to solidify the pass rush and veteran slot receiver Jamison Crowder is an underrated pickup that can win in the middle of the field.
The draft was also successful as the Bills added cornerback Kaiir Elam and James Cook, the pass-catching RB they’ve been searching for.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The Bills have the league’s best net rest edge in 2022 with four games with a rest advantage over their opponent compared to just two games with a rest disadvantage.
The Bills play three Thursday games, providing them with a mini-bye advantage the following week on two occasions.
Despite an extra road game in 2022, the Bills were fortunate with the schedule.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
In 2021, five of the Bills’ six losses were by less than one score. These Bills were 0-5 in one-score games which is unlikely to repeat.
Opposing teams made 91% of field goal attempts 1.5 field goals over expectation whereas Tyler Bass finished below expectation.
An improvement in field goal luck will help the record in one-score games.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Bills Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Bills’ opening seven weeks prior to the bye week makes for the fourth-most difficult over that span as not a single opponent is projected for less than 8.5 wins.
This opening stretch isn’t ideal for new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to take over.
The offense under Brian Daboll was extremely pass-heavy on early downs and head coach Sean McDermott has hinted at rushing more. Early offensive success is not a guarantee with a new coordinator and this opening schedule.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Buffalo was fortunate with injuries, finishing with the 2nd-lowest adjusted games lost.
After finishing with the 3rd least games lost on offense and 5th-lowest games lost on defense, they’re unlikely to have similar injury luck in 2022.
They are also likely to have worse fumble luck after recovering 4.9 fumbles over expectation.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Bills’ defense played the second least efficient opposing offenses.
In the playoff game against the Chiefs, the defense allowed 0.51 EPA/DB and against the Buccaneers in Week 14 allowed 0.18 EPA/DB.
They have a solid defense but are unlikely to sustain a league-leading 0.17 EPA/D vs a harder schedule
Bills Strength of Schedule:
The Bills are ranked #18 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the most balanced schedules in terms of difficulty for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.