Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Buccaneers Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Buccaneers win this season?
The Buccaneers are predicted to win 11.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Buccaneers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Improvement in injury luck is likely on defense as the secondary and linebackers experienced a cluster of injuries in 2021.
The secondary was so depleted it was needed to sign a 33- year-old Richard Sherman midseason.
The defense is likely to improve upon the 53% success rate by opposing wide receivers and 58% to tight ends with better health.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The Brady-helmed offense led the league in EPA/play with success through the air and on the ground. The Buccaneers passed at the highest rate on first down.
The success from the efficient high-volume passing game led to the Buccaneers needing an average of 6.1 yards to go on third down, tied for the league’s best mark.
The offense is likely to continue to pass at a high rate on early downs.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a solid offseason, thanks in part to the Tom Brady unretirement.
The front office signed players for good value, including veteran tackle Akeim Hicks and also re-signed Ryan Jensen, Chris Godwin, and Carlton Davis. In addition to the free agents, the Buccaneers landed Shaq Mason for a fifth-round pick.
The Buccaneers had an efficient offseason which will help keep them at or near the top of the NFC standings.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Buccaneers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Buccaneers allowed the fewest number of sacks in 2021 and benefited from unrepeatable offensive line health.
The starting five linemen played 88% of offensive snaps together, while only four other teams had the same five linemen for over 50% of snaps.
Regression in terms of injury luck combined with two new starters likely taking time to adjust could cause lead to increased pressure for Brady.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The offense still has receiving question marks with the retirement of Rob Gronkowski and the status of Chris Godwin after he suffered an ACL injury in December and is likely to miss time early in the season.
Brady operates an offense that gets the ball out quickly but also requires the receivers to win early as he averaged the second-fastest time to throw behind only Ben Roethlisberger.
Depth at wide receiver and tight end could hinder this offense with poor injury luck.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The defense played the easiest opposing passing offenses in 2021 and see a large jump in opposing quality of quarterbacks and offenses.
The defense blitzed at the highest rate and had significantly more success against poorer starting quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford defeated the Bucs twice while Dak Prescott and Josh Allen lost close games. The slate of opposing quarterbacks in 2022 is much stronger.
Buccaneers Strength of Schedule:
The Buccaneers are ranked #7 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the easier schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.