Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Cardinals Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Cardinals win this season?
The Cardinals are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Cardinals Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Kyler Murray had an encouraging start to the season, however, the mobile quarterback struggled after suffering an ankle injury.
Prior to his injury, the offense ranked third in the league with 0.16 EPA/play and second with 0.29 EPA/dropback.
Both those numbers dropped significantly after Week 8 as the offense managed 0.01 EPA/play and 0.05 EPA/dropback. If Murray stays healthy, the offense can be one of the league’s top units.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The defense had the seventh-most adjusted games lost to injury in 2021 and should experience positive regression in terms of injury.
The 2021 defensive performance is more noteworthy as the defensive line was the third-most injured in the league and the defense was able to create pressure at a top ten rate.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The addition of Marquise Brown is a great fit for Kyler Murray and gives the predictable offense an option for increased creativity.
Now that the wide receiver room has two sub-4.4 speedsters with DeAndre Hopkins missing the first six games, there is a possibility that the offense is more creative and moves the wide receivers around.
Hopkins lined up outside on 85% of snaps last season. Brown elevates the deep ball threat as Murray has been an elite deep ball passer since entering the league as he has completed 41.5% of passes over 30 air yards highest of any quarterback with more than 15 attempts.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Cardinals Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The 2021 offense had 26 fumbles and recovered 23, nine recoveries over expectation.
The defense finished 2.7 fumbles over expectation and the Cardinals finished with an unprecedented 11.7 fumbles over expectation, nearly seven more than the next closest team.
The Cardinals finished second in EPA gained from penalties and third in offensive third down conversions over expectation. Regression in all three categories should be expected in 2022.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Cardinals have one game with a rest advantage and four games with a rest disadvantage. The lone rest advantage is a Monday night game after their bye week, in which the opponent still has over a week of rest.
The rest disadvantages include two short weeks in the back half of the season, including a matchup against the Chargers following a Monday night game in Mexico and road game in Denver on short rest.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
Although the 2021 defense finished top six in EPA/play against both the rush and pass, the defense allowed a high rate of yards per play and that EPA relied on big defensive plays.
The loss of Chandler Jones and the second-hardest schedule of offenses based on efficiency could lead to defensive regression.
Arizona Cardinals Strength of Schedule:
The Cardinals are ranked #24 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the 10 toughest schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.