Get the latest NFL MVP betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2022 NFL season.
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
Odds to Win 2022 NFL MVP
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Biggest Movers in NFL MVP Odds
Post Schedule Release Odds Changes
As clarity for the upcoming season improves, oddsmakers have tightened the odds. After the schedule release NFL MVP odds for quarterbacks shifted significantly, which may be a lesson for next year and the importance of getting bets in on long shots prior to the schedule release.
Tom Brady shifted +900 to +800 ahead of Aaron Rodgers +700 to +900 as the third most likely to win the NFL MVP.
Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, and Mac Jones all had odds shifted and offer much less value than prior to the schedule release.
As the quarterback odds dropped, running back and wide receiver odds increased dramatically. Jonathan Taylor Derek Henry, Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams all saw large increases in payout odds.
Recent NFL MVP Odds Changes
- Trey Lance’s NFL MVP odds shifted from +6600 to +5000 and again to +4000 on April 22, despite Deebo Samuel trade rumors (Mar. 30).
- Tua Tagovailoa’s NFL MVP odds rocketed from +17500 to +10000 following the Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead additions (Mar. 23).
- Matt Ryan jumped from +10000 to +5000 to win NFL MVP following the trade to the Indianapolis Colts (Mar. 21)
Past NFL MVP Odds Changes
- Russell Wilson’s MVP odds shifted from +3000 to +1200 after his recent trade to the Denver Broncos (Mar. 8).
- Tom Brady stole the show with an unretirement tweet (Mar. 13) and hits the board at +900.
- Deshaun Watson’s legal proceedings also impacted his odds as his odds shifted from +8000 to +3000 as the likelihood of him playing in the 2022 season has increased (Mar. 18).
Who is most likely to win NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are currently co-favorites to win the 2022 NFL MVP at +700 odds.
Favorites to win the 2022 NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP +700
Patrick Mahomes is a couple of plays away from reaching the Super Bowl in each of his first four years as a starting quarterback.
The problem with Mahomes is that he is graded on a different level than the other quarterbacks, as expectations are for the Kansas City Chiefs to win, which bodes well for Mahomes to win the NFL MVP.
Early indications this off-season show that Mahomes is aware of the need to reduce off-the-field distractions.
The division schedule has recently become more difficult combined with the defensive salary cap restraints creating a potential for an increase in offensive statistics.
Josh Allen to win MVP +700
The Buffalo Bills are currently Super Bowl LVIII favorites and have an easier path to division wins than the Kansas City Chiefs.
Josh Allen has thrown for over 35 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons and the Buffalo Bills have reached double digits wins in each of the past three seasons.
What remains to be seen is the effect of losing offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and the chatter of Sean McDermott wanted to have a more run/pass balance.
Sleeper Bets to win the 2022 NFL MVP
Hurts plays in the NFC and the Eagles have the 3rd easiest strength of schedule according to current win totals. The Eagles reaching double-digit wins and winning the NFC East is well within the range of outcomes. Hurts is a benefactor of elite wide receiver A.J. Brown joining the offense. Early value on this number in Hurt’s make or break season as quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Trey Lance to win MVP +6600 Now +4000
The road to a division championship and double-digit wins for the 49ers became more realistic with Russell Wilson departing the division. It is not hard to envision the 49ers finishing the NFC with the most wins and Lance would be in the MVP discussion should that happen.
Kyle Shanahan now has a full off-season to design the offense around the athletic quarterback. Lance may still be raw, but the upside exists and this is the type of player and situation to bet on if wagering now.
Tua Tagovailoa to win MVP +17500 Now +6600
Not advocating that Tagovailoa will win, but seems mispriced given the situation. This is more of a bet on Mike McDaniel being able to make a huge impact in his first year as head coach.
Recent additions of Terron Armstead and Tyreek Hill have bumped Tua’s MVP odds but he remains a solid long-shot wager.
NFL MVP Betting Trends
- The last nine winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks
- Since 2001, only 3 non-quarterbacks have won NFL MVP – all were running backs
- Since 2001, every NFL MVP winner was on a team that won at least 11 games. Adrian Peterson’s MVP season was the only exception, with the Vikings winning 10 games in 2012.
- Last year Cooper Kupp had a record-setting season with game-to-game consistency and was unable to dethrone a quarterback for the award. Do not bet on wide receivers.
When Should you bet on the NFL MVP?
If you’re betting on MVP favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way you’ll keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.
When placing a future bet like the 2022 NFL MVP an important concept to understand is the time value of money. The concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.
Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2022 NFL MVP bet will not be graded until February 2023 tying up funds wagered for nearly 10 months.
Does this concept insinuate that no MVP bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes, also the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.