While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
We have already looked at the prop lines set for Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and the running backs for both teams. With that, we are jumping over to the props for the pass catchers on the Eagles side.
Receptions
| Player | Rec. | Career % | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4.5 | 41.8% | 52.6% |
| DeVonta Smith | 4.5 | 54.0% | 73.7% |
| Dallas Goedert | 4.5 | 34.7% | 57.1% |
| Quez Watkins | 1.5 | 65.1% | 52.6% |
All of the Eagles’ pass catchers have hit the over on their reception lines at MGM in over half of their games this season, but all of them are currently being taxed on these paltry lines. DeVonta Smith (-175), A.J. Brown (-160), and Dallas Goedert (-130) overs are heavily weighted and you are best to shop around elsewhere for better baselines. Smith has five or more receptions in 14-of-19 games this season, so even setting the line at 4.5 was unnecessary.
If you are sticking at MGM, there are a few alternative angles. DeVonta Smith is +240 to catch seven or more passes there. Smith has seven or more receptions in three of the four games this season in which the opponent has played two-high safeties at least 40% of the time. Ryan McCrystal highlights that the Chiefs play two-high safety coverage more than any team in the NFL and have been in those looks for over 40% of the time in all but one game this season.
If you are looking to get in on the low line for Quez Watkins, he does come with a bit of risk. Watkins has three total receptions over his past five games played and has yet to catch a pass in the postseason. Watkins has also run a route on fewer than 60% of the team dropbacks in each of the past three games after going over 60% in the previous 12 games.
Receiving Yards
| Player | ReYd | Career % | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 70.5 | 43.4% | 47.4% |
| DeVonta Smith | 61.5 | 43.2% | 52.6% |
| Dallas Goedert | 47.5 | 37.3% | 57.1% |
| Quez Watkins | 12.5 | 65.9% | 52.6% |
Things are more reasonable on the yardage props for the Philadelphia pass catchers versus the tax we are paying on the reception lines.
As mentioned above, Smith has been the best Philadelphia pass catcher against two-high safeties. He also has hit his current yardage line in over half of his games played, In that sample of opponents that have deployed two-high safety looks at a similar rate as the Chiefs, Smith has gone over 100 yards receiving three times while posting 80 yards in the other.
He is +325 to hit 100 yards if you want to go a smaller unit size on that line at MGM, but you can also find alternative lines out there at other books in which you can ladder your way up to 100 yards as well. The latter may be more optimal since the Chiefs have not allowed a 100-yard wide receiver since Josh Palmer in Week 11.
Dallas Goedert also stands out here. Goedert has gone over (-115) this yardage line in 8-of-14 games this season while he has gone over his receiving yardage prop in 10-of-14 games this season.
A.J. Brown has just 50 total receiving yards in the postseason, but he had previously posted 90 or more yards in his four games entering the playoffs while he had at least 70 yards in six straight games before the postseason. Kansas City has also allowed 8.5 yards per target (20th) to opposing wide receivers on the perimeter, where Brown plays 78% of his snaps.
One extra thing of note is that if you are supporting the Chiefs side in this game from a top-down stance, then you should be looking at a lot of the Philadelphia passing lines to be soft. The Eagles have hardly been pressed to even throw the ball in the second half of games this season and many of these lines are hovering around seasonal averages. Jalen Hurts is averaging 19.4 pass attempts per game in the first this season (seventh in the league) and 22.3 dropbacks per game in the first half (fifth) before those rates fall down to 10.6 attempts per game (32nd) and 12.8 dropbacks per game (32nd) after the break.
More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:
- Super Bowl Prop Bet Analysis: Patrick Mahomes
- Super Bowl Prop Bet Analysis: Jalen Hurts
- Super Bowl Prop Bet Analysis: Running Backs
- Best Long Shot Prop Bets For Super Bowl 57
- Best Super Bowl Receiving Prop Bets: Travis Kelce, DeVonta Smith
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Isiah Pacheco
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Miles Sanders
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Jalen Hurts
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Patrick Mahomes
- Super Bowl 57 Prop Bet Tracker
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations
As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, both our betting recommendations and the wonderful content the team produces on the site… we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations with savings:
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Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and Super Bowl bets to follow and props when lines are posted.
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
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It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:
- 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
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- 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)