The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Ravens and Broncos.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0 | Spread | -9.0 | ||
| 19.75 | Implied Total | 26.75 | ||
| 21.6 | 20 | Points/Gm | 30.3 | 2 |
| 15.0 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 26.1 | 26 |
| 61.3 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 10 |
| 63.8 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 20 |
| 5 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 7.1 | 1 |
| 4.4 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 25 |
| 44.08% | 16 | Rush% | 51.08% | 3 |
| 55.92% | 17 | Pass% | 48.92% | 30 |
| 41.57% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 33.86% | 2 |
| 58.43% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 66.14% | 31 |
- The Ravens are 16-2 at home against rookie quarterbacks under John Harbaugh.
- Baltimore games average 56.4 combined points per game, the most in the NFL.
- Denver games average 36.6 combined points per game, 29th in the league.
- After scoring a touchdown on a league-low 8.2% of their possessions over their opening four games, Denver has scored a touchdown on 24.4% of their drives over the past four weeks (13th).
- Baltimore is second in EPA on passing plays this season (84.9).
- Denver is first in the NFL in pass EPA on defense (54.4).
- The Ravens are 30th in pass EPA on defense (-64.6).
- Denver has allowed 2.0 passing plays of 20 or more yards per game, tied for first in the league.
- Baltimore has allowed a league-high 4.9 passing plays of 20 or more yards per game.
- The Ravens have allowed a league-high 9 touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
- The Broncos are the only remaining team without a touchdown scored from outside of the red zone.
- Denver has the second-highest success rate of defending rushing plays (66.0%) followed by Baltimore (64.7%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: This should be a good one.
We are getting the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback against a defense that is fourth in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Jackson has already come out of some tough spots with front-end scoring weeks.
He had top-six scoring weeks against the Chiefs (25.1 points) and Browns (24.2 points), and his lowest-scoring week this season is QB13.
We are not going to waver on Jackson as the best fantasy quarterback right now.
On the other hand, this is by far the best quarterback that Denver has faced.
To this point, the best they had faced was Baker Mayfield.
To their credit, they erased him for a QB28 scoring week.
The other quarterbacks were Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Gardner Minshew, Justin Herbert, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young.
Funny enough, Young is the only one to throw multiple touchdown passes against them.
Denver has been an aggressive defense, playing man coverage on 36.7% of their snaps, fifth in the league.
Because of that, they have allowed a good number of rushing yards to passers.
Geno (30 yards), Fields (27), Rodgers (26), Minshew (22), and Rattler (34) have all tacked on rushing production to their lines.
Jackson has been running more this season.
His 10.1 attempts per game are his most in a season since 2021.
His 62.6 yards rushing per game are up from the 51.3 per game he averaged a year ago.
Jackson was also a winner with the trade of Diontae Johnson.
We will see how Johnson is integrated into this offense, but this is the best set of pass catchers that Jackson has had.
He is surrounded by guys who get open.
In ESPN's Open Score, Mark Andrews is 2nd.
Rashod Bateman is 6th.
Zay Flowers is 16th.
Johnson is 38th.
Bo Nix: Nix did what we were looking for him to do against the Panthers last week, closing as QB2 (29.8 points) in weekly scoring.
He threw for a season-high 284 yards and 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 3 touchdown passes, the third time over the past four weeks that he has thrown multiple touchdown passes.
Nix was not pressed to use his legs against a hapless Carolina pass rush (4 yards), but he did sneak in a touchdown for his fourth rushing score of the season.
Nix has been a quarterback we have picked our spots with as a streamer.
His QB1 scoring weeks are against the Bucs, Raiders, Chargers, and Panthers.
On paper, this is another objectively good spot since Baltimore continues to give up production through the air.
The Ravens are now 30th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.519) and dead last in passing points allowed per game (19.9) before accounting for any rushing output Nix could have.
While there is a strong signal there to keep pushing Nix as a streamer in 1QB leagues, I would still prefer to use him as an upside QB2.
Denver does not even have a 20-point team total here.
Playing in Baltimore has not been kind to rookie quarterbacks as noted in the bullet points.
There have been 18 rookie passers to start in Baltimore since John Harbaugh joined the team.
Only two of them have won and only two of them have thrown more than one touchdown pass.
One was Jayden Daniels this season, so we do have that in the corner for Nix versus this defense, but the Baltimore defense has played better in bulk at home this year.
The Ravens have allowed 7.0 Y/A (15th) with a 2.9% touchdown rate (7th) and 9.6% sack rate (8th) at home this year.
On the road, they have allowed 8.7 Y/A (30th), a 6.9% touchdown rate (27th), and a 6.0% sack rate (17th).
Maybe I am just overthinking it with Nix, but I still am cautious on this Denver offense while two of those Baltimore home games were against Josh Allen and Daniels, with both scoring fewer points than their average entering the matchup.
Running Back
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More Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Texans @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Vikings | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
