The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Packers and Lions.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Detroit | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
-3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
25.5 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
33.4 | 1 | Points/Gm | 27.0 | 6 |
19.1 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 21.3 | 11 |
61.6 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 10 |
62.9 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 15 |
6.3 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 6 |
5.6 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
50.12% | 6 | Rush% | 50.49% | 5 |
49.88% | 27 | Pass% | 49.51% | 28 |
34.77% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 42.54% | 16 |
65.23% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 57.46% | 17 |
- Detroit has scored a touchdown on a league-high 35.0% of their possessions. The league average is 21.8%.
- After converting 55.6% (10-of-18) of their red zone drives for touchdowns in September (16th), the Lions converted a league-high 81.8% (9-of-11) in October.
- The Lions have a league-high 52.1% success rate on passing plays.
- The Lions have a 46.8% success rate on rushing plays, third in the league.
- Detroit has allowed a touchdown on 16.5% of opponent possessions, 5th in the league.
- 38.5% of the Detroit set of downs reach third down, second in the NFL behind the Ravens (35.1%).
- Green Bay is 8th in the league with 41.6% of their sets of downs reaching third down. The league average is 45.8%.
- The Lions have scored a league-high 9 offensive touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
- The Packers have scored 8, tied for second in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Goff was not tasked to do much on Sunday.
He threw only 15 passes in the blowout win, completing 12 of them for only 85 yards.
At least three of those passes were touchdowns to smooth over his fantasy line, but Goff was limited to a QB18 (15.5 points) scoring week as a result.
Goff and this offense have been operating at an efficient level since losing in Week 2.
Over his past five games, Goff sports a league-high 146.5 rating, completing a league-high 83.0% of his passes (88-of-106) for a league-high 11.0 yards per pass attempt.
He has 12 touchdowns and 1 interception over those games.
There will be some hubbub out there about this being Goff’s first outdoor game this season.
Goff has weather splits that are true negatives in his profile, but what has mattered the most about him playing outside has always come down to the matchup and pressure.
The latter has not been an issue this season.
Goff has completed a league-high 68.5% of his passes when pressured this season for 9.1 Y/A (2nd).
The Green Bay pass defense has forced 10 interceptions (tied for second in the league) but has largely been a middle-of-the-road defense in bulk.
They are 15th in passing points allowed per game (12.9).
Where Detroit has a potential matchup edge is in the play action game.
Goff leads the NFL in using play action on 36.7% of his dropbacks.
Using play action this season, Goff has completed 80.3% (57-of-71) of his throws (1st) for 11.7 Y/A (1st) with 5 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Green Bay has been vulnerable to play action passes.
Against play action, the Packers have allowed a 70.6% completion rate (22nd), 8.5 Y/A (19th), and a 5.9% touchdown rate ( (20th).
Without the use of play action, Green Bay has allowed a 60.9% completion rate (7th), 6.8 Y/A (17th), and a 4.2% touchdown rate (17th).
I am still treating Goff in the same capacity that we were handling Brock Purdy last year.
He has been so efficient and the offense has been so good as a unit that he is a fringe QB1.
Trevor Lawrence just threw for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns in Green Bay.
Packers QB: We will have to see if Jordan Love can play through a groin injury that forced him to leave last week’s game.
The Packers used a bit of gamesmanship with Love earlier this season when he injured his knee, taking things into the 11th hour each week as if he would play.
We will follow practice reports this week and see what type of practice time Love has.
If Love can play, there is added risk for re-aggravation or limitation, making him a volatile option on the QB1/QB2 line.
This is not a glowing matchup on paper.
Detroit has allowed the fewest passing points per attempt in the league (0.293).
They have yet to allow multiple passing touchdowns in any game this season despite facing 38.1 pass attempts per game (third most).
Love was good in this matchup both times a year ago, finishing as QB14 (17.6 points) and QB5 (26.6 points).
If Love cannot play this week, Malik Willis will draw his third start of the season.
The Packers have altered their game plan with Willis on the field.
They have a 33.8% dropback rate on 154 plays with Willis on the field this season.
With Jordan Love, that rate is 60.0%.
Willis has been efficient when he has thrown the ball, completing 74.4% (29-of-39) of his passes for 9.7 Y/A with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
He averages the most passing points per attempt (0.697).
Willis also has rushed for 137 yards in his three appearances, giving him an added out as having a usable floor as QB2 with added upside if he can remain efficient per attempt in a tougher matchup on paper than his first starts against Tennessee and Indianapolis.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Texans @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
Cowboys @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Dolphins @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Raiders @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Chargers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Broncos @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Jaguars @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Bears @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Rams @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Colts @ Vikings | Sunday Night Football |
Bucs @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |