The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
9 | Spread | -9 | ||
19.75 | Implied Total | 26.75 | ||
29.4 | 4 | Points/Gm | 24.7 | 9 |
26.6 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 17.6 | 5 |
63.9 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 65 | 3 |
65 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.1 | 5 |
6.1 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 17 |
6 | 29 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 5 |
40.51% | 24 | Rush% | 47.91% | 10 |
59.49% | 9 | Pass% | 52.09% | 23 |
39.04% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 40.05% | 6 |
60.96% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 59.95% | 27 |
- Tampa Bay games are averaging 56 combined points per game, the 2nd-most in the league.
- Games involving Tampa Bay are averaging a league-high 128.9 combined plays per game.
- Tampa Bay has allowed 2.84 points per drive over their past four games, 30th in the league.
- Only 22.4% of the possessions against Tampa Bay fail to gain at least one first down, 31st in the league.
- The Buccaneers have converted 52.5% of their third downs, the highest rate in the league. The league average is 38.6%.
- The Chiefs are 2nd in the NFL, converting 50.5% of their third downs.
- 5% of the Kansas City runs have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the NFL.
- 15.9% of the Tampa Bay runs have gained 10 or more yards, 4th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): The light runout for Mahomes continued on Sunday.
He was QB16 on a high-scoring week, but Mahomes scored a season-high 18.2 fantasy points.
That would have been a QB1 scoring week in just about any other week.
I believe Mahomes can run back that output here in this matchup.
The Buccaneers have been a defense we have circled all season for fantasy points.
They have allowed a QB1 scorer in five of their past six games, with Spencer Rattler as the only exception.
Tampa Bay has allowed 17.1 passing points per game, 29th in the league.
The Bucs are blitzing at the league’s 3rd-highest rate (32.4%) but are 16th in pressure rate on their blitzes (43.1%).
When Tampa Bay has not pressured the opposing passer, they have struggled.
Without pressure, they allow a 73.8% completion rate (26th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (20th).
The Bucs are also 31stt in rushing points allowed to quarterbacks (6.1).
They have faced Jayden Daniels (88 yards), Lamar Jackson (52), Bo Nix (47), and Jalen Hurts (20), but also have allowed Kirk Cousins (16), Rattler (27) to tack on rushing yards.
Baker Mayfield: Even short both of his top pass catchers on Sunday, Mayfield stacked a plethora of pass attempts and delivered fantasy points.
He closed the week as QB10 (22.3 points), completing 37-of-50 (74%) of his passes with three touchdowns.
Mayfield has thrown the football 95 times in the past two weeks.
He has thrown 3 or more passing touchdowns in four straight games.
Mayfield also has multiple interceptions in three straight games.
Through eight games, Mayfield has been a top-10 scorer seven times.
The team total and the matchup are enough to keep Mayfield as more of a QB2, but there could be enough passing volume here chasing points that leads to another high-floor game.
The Chiefs are 12th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.383), allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt (9th).
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Running Back
Kareem Hunt: Hunt is a testament to what volume and scoring opportunities can do for a running back in fantasy football.
Hunt has only rushed for 3.7 YPC with the Chiefs with two runs of 10 or more yards (50th out of 51 running backs over that span), but he is 3rd in the NFL rushing attempts over that period with four rushing touchdowns.
Hunt has 28, 24, and 22 touches in his three starts.
With the Chiefs sitting as large home favorites here, Hunt should run into another sizeable workload as a volume-based RB2.
The Bucs have allowed 5 YPC to running backs (28th), but to be fair to them, they have faced a daunting rushing schedule so far.
The four backs who have gained over 100 yards against them are Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson.
There is no shame in allowing those guys to produce.
Tampa Bay RBs: This backfield was back to a two-person split between Rachaad White and Bucky Irving last week.
White played more snaps (40) than Irving (30), but Irving handled more touches (16) than White (11).
Irving even got involved as a pass catcher, catching 7 passes for 40 yards.
Sean Tucker only played 8 snaps with 3 touches.
Todd Bowles suggested afterward that Tucker has not been relegated out of this backfield, but that was the second game in a row where Tampa Bay shelved Tucker when they were forced to chase points.
While this backfield split can be frustrating for Irving and White gamers, the Buccaneers have produced a pair of top-20 running backs in three straight games.
You can play both Irving and White near the RB2/FLEX line.
Mayfield has thrown to running backs 24.4% and 30.4% of the time in the past two weeks.
White has three receiving touchdowns over the past two games.
This is a tougher rushing matchup, but the Bucs have succeeded with this backfield in tough spots (see Baltimore two weeks ago).
Irving leads the NFL with 3.6 YPC on runs where he has been hit at-or-behind the line of scrimmage.
Irving averages 4.9 yards after contact per run when hit at-or-behind the line, 2nd in the league.
The Chiefs have been excellent against the run to put things to the test again.
Kansas City has the highest success rate against running back runs (72.3%), allowing only 3.0 YPC (1st) on those attempts.
Running backs have scored only 23.8% of the fantasy points allowed by the Chiefs, the lowest rate in the league.
They are even 9th in receiving points allowed (6.9 per game) to backfields.
Wide Receiver
Xavier Worthy: Worthy caught 4-of-8 targets for 37 yards and a touchdown in Las Vegas Sunday.
It has not been the prettiest for Worthy per target, but the Chiefs continue to incorporate him into the crux of this offense.
Worthy is averaging 33.6 receiving yards per game, but he has 5 total touchdowns.
Coming out of the bye, Worthy has been targeted on 30.8% and 25.8% of his routes, his highest rates of the season.
Worthy only has two WR2-or-better scoring weeks this season, so he is still a touchdown-dependent FLEX, but this is a matchup where he can cash in opportunities.
The Bucs are 28th in points allowed per game to receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins was eased into action in his first game with the Chiefs, catching 2-of-3 targets for 29 yards.
He only ran 14 routes (34.1% of the dropbacks).
We are looking for more to be put on his plate this week, with an extra day to prepare.
Hopkins takes a step of faith to use as a WR3/FLEX since we are guessing how snaps we will get, but liking Mahomes in this matchup paired with the vulnerability of this Tampa Bay secondary, there is a path to production should he be ready to be close to a full-time player.
Tampa Bay WRs: In the first game without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan led the wide receivers in routes (46) and targets (7), catching 4 passes for 35 yards.
Trey Palmer ran 39 routes with 2 targets, catching both for 29 yards.
Sterling Shepard ran 37 routes with 5 targets, catching 3 for 18 yards.
Ryan Miller ran 17 routes with 5 targets, catching 3 for 19 yards.
Rakim Jarrett ran 11 routes with three targets, catching 3 for 58 yards.
Shepard injured his hamstring but was able to return to the game.
McMillan remains the receiver I am most interested in, but none of these options is more than FLEX-worthy here and is best used as dart throws in single-game DFS.
The Chiefs are 6th in points allowed per target to wide receivers (1.58), allowing a 58.5% catch rate (5th), and a league-low 6.4 yards per target to receivers.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (TRUST): Kelce pulled in 10-of-12 targets for 90 yards and his first touchdown on Sunday.
He has been a top-5 scorer in three of his four games since the injury to Rashee Rice.
Over that span, Kelce has received 29.5% of the team’s targets, with targets on 26.1% of his routes.
When Mahomes has been blitzed over that span, Kelce has 38.5% of the team targets with 3.85 yards per route run.
He can put that volume to good use here.
The Buccaneers have allowed an 80% catch rate to tight ends (27th), 10.4 yards per target (30th), and an 8% touchdown rate (28th) to tight ends.
The Bucs have allowed a TE1 scorer in four of their past fives to Dallas Goedert (7-62-0), Kyle Pitts twice (7-88-0 and 4-91-2), and Mark Andrews (4-41-2).
Cade Otton: Otton was the largest beneficiary from the injuries to the wide receivers last week.
Otton caught 9-of-10 targets for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.
In the past two weeks, Otton has now seen 22.2% and 21.7% of the team targets.
He is a volume-based TE1.
This is a good matchup on the surface.
Tight ends have scored a league-high 29.4% of the fantasy points allowed by the Chiefs.
They are allowing 9.3 yards per target to tight ends (29th).
Isaiah Likely (9-111-2) and Mike Gesicki (7-91-0) caused a lot of that damage early in the season.
George Kittle did get them for 6-92-0 in Week 7, but the Chiefs just held Brock Bowers to a 5-58-0 line on Sunday, to keep us honest.
More Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Texans @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
Cowboys @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Dolphins @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Raiders @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Chargers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Broncos @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Jaguars @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Bears @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Rams @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Colts @ Vikings | Sunday Night Football |
Bucs @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |