Colts vs Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Sunday Night Football game on October 6, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.
IndianapolisRank@Kansas CityRank
10.5Spread-10.5
22.75Implied Total33.25
23.512Points/Gm33.82
25.524Points All./Gm23.519
64.513Plays/Gm64.514
58.24Opp. Plays/Gm65.224
44.2%7Rush%38.0%23
55.8%26Pass%62.0%10
41.6%20Opp. Rush %39.1%16
58.4%13Opp. Pass %60.9%17
  • Jacoby Brissett is the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns in every game this season.
  • The Colts are the only team to allow multiple touchdown passes in every game this season.
  • The Chiefs average 14 red zone plays per game, the most in the league. The rest of the league averages 8.2 per game. 
  • 18.9% of the rushing attempts against the Colts have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them is 11.3%.
  • 63.3% of the rushing yardage allowed by the Colts has come on those runs, the highest rate in the league.
  • LeSean McCoy’s 2.7 yards before contact per carry trails only Saquon Barkley (3.5 yards before contact) among the 45 backs that have 20 or more carries on the season.
  • The Chiefs defense is allowing the highest rate of runs to gain positive yardage (89.2%) and rate of runs to gain five or more yards (51.9%).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Patrick Mahomes: Even in a game in which he completed just 57.1% of his passes and failed to throw a touchdown pass, Mahomes still posted 18.0 fantasy points (QB11).  Mahomes has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season. The two top quarterbacks the Colts have faced this season were Philip Rivers (23.9 points) and Matt Ryan (22.5 points).
  • Travis Kelce: Kelce has at least 85 yards receiving in all four games this season and has seven receptions in each of the past three games. He has posted double-digit fantasy points in 19 consecutive games. The Colts are a frequent target for tight end use due to their zone scheme and they already rank 29th in receptions allowed (28) to the position. Kelce had 7-108 on 10 targets when these teams met in the playoffs a year ago. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Chiefs RBs: Damien Williams is already practicing this week, so it looks like he’s set to return after a two-week absence.  The question now is will this backfield go back to a two-man committee or has Darrel Williams played himself into the mix at all moving forward. Darrel has 14 and 11 touches the past two weeks while showing he has worth in the receiving game, catching eight passes for 90 yards. Regardless of how much either Williams plays, LeSean McCoy is in against this soft Colts run defense. McCoy has yet to exceed 13 touches in a game this season, but has 80 or more yards from scrimmage in three of four games while finding the end zone three times over the past two weeks. When these teams met in the playoff a year ago, Chiefs backs totaled 153 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 33 touches.
  • Chiefs WRs: We know we’re playing all of Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson to get attachment to Mahomes. Watkins has had his target share drop in every game this season. Chasing Week 1 has been fatiguing and is proving to be an outlier, but Watkins did have 6-62 in that playoff game between these teams a year ago. Watkins is still the primary slot option in this offense and has the most potential for volume of this group against the zone-heavy Colts defensive scheme. That’s where it gets tricky for Hardman and Robinson. The Colts inherently don’t give up a lot of splash plays based on their scheme, but we know that this Kansas City offense can create those opportunities versus anyone. Robinson has lapped Hardman in routes run in each of the past three weeks, making him the better bet of the two.
  • Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has been a rock-solid fantasy option, improving his weekly rank in each game this season. He’s had back-to-back games with over 20 fantasy points, with the latter coming in a game without T.Y. Hilton active. There were some warts in that as Brissett completed a season-low 52.2% of his passes and only averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt, but Hilton could return to the lineup this Sunday while the game script here sets up to be similar as last week.
  • T.Y. Hilton: Hilton had 10 targets in one half of football the last time he was on the field and has scored a touchdown in all three of his games this season. He can’t keep up the touchdown pace, but his volume can hold steady if he’s back on the field this weekend. Hilton is averaging career-lows in yards per reception (9.8) and yards per target (7.8), but his 27.3% target share is a strong deodorant to go with those touchdowns. 
  • Colts RBs: After fighting through a calf injury the week prior, Marlon Mack left last week’s game with an ankle injury. If he’s good to practice early in the week, then we’ll adjust this section and move forward with business as usual. Should Mack be unable to practice and subsequently be unable to play on Sunday, then Jordan Wilkins will step into the primary rushing role with Nyheim Hines getting more opportunities for snaps. The Chiefs run defense is exploitable for Wilkins to be a FLEX option in that role, but anticipated game script would favor Hines to be a low-ceiling FLEX option after he caught six passes last weekend. Colts backs had 70 yards in this matchup a year ago on only 12 touches. I’d take the over on 12 touches for the backfield here in this rematch. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Colts TEs: Both Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle scored touchdowns last week while Doyle ran a season-high 31 pass routes. The Colts target their tight ends 27.4% of the time, which ranks fifth in the league. The Chiefs have allowed 32 receptions to opposing tight ends on the season, which is tied with the Cardinals for the most in the league.

More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

LAR at SEA | CHI at OAK | BAL at PIT | NE at WAS | NYJ at PHI | ARI at CIN | JAX at CAR | TB at NO | ATL at HOU | BUF at TEN | MIN at NYG | DEN at LAC | GB at DAL | IND at KC | CLE at SF

 

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