The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Commanders and Bears on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 18.8 | 22 | Points/Gm | 22.3 | 17 |
| 34.3 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 30.0 | 29 |
| 60.5 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 64.0 | 15 |
| 62.8 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 15 |
| 5 | 16 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 23 |
| 6.1 | 31 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
| 42.15% | 16 | Rush% | 35.94% | 29 |
| 57.85% | 17 | Pass% | 64.06% | 4 |
| 48.61% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 42.86% | 14 |
| 51.39% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 57.14% | 19 |
- The Bears are the only remaining team to have all of their games go over the game total through four weeks.
- Chicago has now allowed 25 or more points in an NFL record 14 consecutive games.
- Washington is allowing a league-high 8.0 sacks plus turnovers per game.
- Chicago is allowing 6.3 sacks plus turnovers per game, 30th in the league.
- The Bears are averaging 1.0 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense, 31st in the NFL.
- Washington has scored a touchdown on 1-of-18 drives when taking a sack.
- The Commanders have scored a touchdown on 9-of-27 drives (33.3%) when they do not take a sack on the drive, fifth in the league.
- Washington is allowing 5.5 scoring plays per game, 31st in the league.
- 70.0% (14-of-20) of the scoring plays allowed by Chicago have been touchdowns, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Fields: After a lackluster opening three weeks orbiting mounting turmoil, Fields had the best passing afternoon of his career on Sunday.
Yes, the game ended on his fifth interception of the season, but Fields set career highs in completions (28), completion rate (80.0%), touchdown passes (four), and his first 300-yard passing game with 335 yards.
Fields added 25 rushing yards, but it was on the strength of 27.4 passing points that he delivered his first QB1 scoring week of the season.
While it was great to see Fields finally get on the board, it did come at home against what is now a historically poor defense through the opening four weeks of any season the NFL has seen.
Fields will look to build up some momentum in Week 5 against a Washington defense that is not quite as favorable as the one he faced last week but is stumbling to open the season.
Washington has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (22nd), 11.6 yards per completion (25th), a 4.6% touchdown rate (25th), and 0.451 passing points per attempt (24th) through the air.
Washington has allowed three consecutive QB1 scoring weeks to Russell Wilson (25.9 points), Josh Allen (21.3 points), and Jalen Hurts (24.2 points). Those quarterbacks also rushed for 56, 46, and 34 yards in those games.
Fields does need to reinforce last week’s results, but he has a matchup to do so as a boom-or-bust QB1 option for gamers.
Sam Howell (TRUST): Howell bounced back quickly from the worst start of his early career in Week 3 against Buffalo, closing Week 4 as QB12 (19.6 points).
Howell used a two-minute drill to anchor his passing line but ended up closing the day completing 29-of-41 passes for 290 yards and a touchdown while adding another 40 yards on the ground.
We are now five starts into Howell’s career, and he has ended those weeks as the QB7, QB12, QB13, QB35, and QB12.
He has to clean up the rate at which he takes sacks, but Howell has regularly found his way to usable games as a fringe QB1 for fantasy to open his career.
He should find the conditions favorable here against a Chicago defense we have continued to pick on to open the 2023 season.
The Bears have allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt (31st), a 70.1% completion percentage (26th), a 7.9% touchdown rate (31st), and 19.9 passing points per game (31st).
They have allowed over 8.0 yards per pass attempt to all of Jordan Love (9.1 Y/A), Baker Mayfield (9.3 Y/A), Patrick Mahomes (8.2 Y/A), and Russell Wilson (8.0 Y/A). If you are a Bears fan, they are trending down at least.
Chicago is also 25th in the league in sack rate (30.9%) and has just one sack all season.
When Howell has been kept clean, he is completing 73.8%% of his passes for 7.2 Y/A with three touchdowns and an interception compared to a 48.6% completion rate, 5.9 Y/A with one touchdown and four interceptions when pressured.
If you were starting Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, or Geno Smith to this point, Howell is arguably the top streamer of the week.
Running Back
Brian Robinson (TRUST): Perhaps the one drawback of streaming Howell is that Robinson is also in a tremendous spot.
Robinson has been one of the better stories of the early season.
Among all running backs with 25 or more carries, Robinson ranks:
- Fourth in the rate of runs that result in a first down or touchdown (32.8%)
- Ninth in success rate (45.9%)
- 11th in rate of runs for 10 or more yards (13.1%)
Robinson has been a top-15 scorer in three of four weeks this season and has accounted for 73.3% of the backfield touches. The one drawback for Robinson is that he has run a pass route on just 30.9% of the team dropbacks, but as a home favorite, the implied game script should alleviate those concerns.
The Bears have been respectable against the run, allowing 3.8 YPC to running backs (10th), but they have just a 59.4% success rate (23rd) on those carries and are allowing a first down or touchdown on 24.8% (24th).
The Bears have also allowed eight touchdowns (four through the air and four on the ground) to running backs in four games.
Khalil Herbert: Last week, we highlighted that if Chicago could keep the game close, Herbert was still the feature back in this offense.
With the Bears operating ahead on the scoreboard and never playing from behind, Herbert out-snapped Roschon Johnson 56-to-16 and out-touched the rookie 22-to-6. He had played 86 snaps with 29 touches over the opening three weeks.
Herbert did not waste his opportunity, turning those touches into 122 total yards and his first touchdown of the season.
As a road underdog of a full touchdown, Herbert does not have the same layout as last week, nor does he have as great of a matchup to fully elevate him as more than a volatile FLEX.
We don’t have to hide from the matchup if Chicago does keep this close.
Washington is middle-of-the-pack against the run, allowing 4.1 YPC to backs (18th) with a 64.9% success rate (14th) and allowing a first down or touchdown on 20.8% of those carries (16th).
Johnson is a low-ceiling FLEX play for those playing the angle that Chicago is playing from behind and this split looks a lot more like Weeks 1-3.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore: It has not always been pretty, but Moore is finding a way to get there for fantasy.
After two catches for 25 yards in the season opener, Moore has had games of 6-104-0, 3-41-1, and 8-131-1.
Over the past three weeks, Moore has 27.5% of the team targets (WR15), 42.9% of the team air yards (WR9), and is averaging 2.73 yards per route run (WR16).
Washington has allowed big games to Stefon Diggs (8-111-0) and A.J. Brown (9-175-2) in the past two weeks.
Moore is not as safe as those lead wideouts, but he does play 83.2% of his snaps out wide, an area where Washington is allowing 11.9 yards per target (31st) and a league-high 10.2% touchdown rate to wide receivers.
There is plenty of matchup appeal for Moore on the upside front as a boom-or-bust WR2.
