Rams vs. Dolphins Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Rams and Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa (TRUST): Tua’s return has brought this offense back from the grave, but it has not fully translated to fantasy points for himself.

Tagovailoa has finished as QB20 (14.7 points) and QB17 (17.5 points) in his two games since returning. 

He was efficient on Sunday, completing 25-of-28 passes, but only 39.3% of his passes were five or more yards downfield, which was 29th in the league last week.

39.3% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league last week.

Tua is best used as a floor-based QB2 capable of spike weeks, but I would use him in spots where I had Jordan Love or are just outright fishing for upside paired with a solid floor.

I prefer Tua to the top streamers this week in Daniel Jones or Aaron Rodgers.

There is upside here as this game has a unique dynamic. 

The Rams pass defense is predicated on generating pressure, and the way Miami structures its passing game mitigates the pressure defenses can get.

Tua has only been pressured on 17.3% of his dropbacks (the lowest rate in the league) since he gets the ball out on average at 2.29 seconds after the snap, the quickest in the league.

When the Rams have not pressured the opposing passers, they have allowed 8.9 yards per attempt (30th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (28th).

When quarterbacks have thrown the ball within 2.5 seconds of the snaps against the Rams, they have allowed a league-high 7.3 Y/A.

The Rams have also been sensitive to play action, allowing 10.4 Y/A (30th) against play action.

Tua has used play action on 31.3% of his dropbacks, third in the league.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has posted his two highest-scoring weeks of the season in the past couple of weeks as this offense gets healthier. 

Stafford has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in back-to-back weeks for the first time this season.

He did lose Puka Nacua early to an ejection, but when Stafford has had Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field at the same time this season, he has posted 7.2 Y/A with a 70.6% completion rate and a 102.2 rating.

Like Tua, Stafford is best used as a high-end QB2, but he also has upside in 1QB leagues.

With a higher team total than Miami, Stafford is in contention to be played over Tua.

I also like Kyren Williams a lot here (which can impact Stafford), but you get the idea of where Stafford resides.

Miami had a stretch of the season where they were an anemic offense that could not score, which did not expose their defense to a high rate of passes. 

They also faced a light run of passers for a stretch of Mason Rudolph, Jacoby Brissett, and Anthony Richardson in Weeks 4-7.

But with Tua back the past two games and the offense capable of pushing opponents, we have seen some cracks in this defense that were not fully exploited. 

Kyler Murray was QB12 (22.2 points) against Miami in Week 8, and Josh Allen was QB7 (22.1 points) last week.

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Running Back

De’Von Achane (TRUST): Achane was explosive again on Sunday, turning 20 touches into 121 yards and 2 more touchdowns.

In the four starts by Tua this season, Achane has ended those weeks as the RB3, RB2, RB2, and RB2 in weekly scoring.

Achane was once again active in the passing game, catching 8 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown.

With Tua Tagovailoa on the field, Achane has been targeted on 29.5% of his routes with 2.33 yards per route run.

Achane leads all running backs with 1.56 yards per route lined up in the slot or out wide, leading the position with 140 yards receiving when he is lined up wide or in the slot.

He leads the team with a target on 31% of his routes against zone coverage.

The Rams only play man coverage on 19.2% of their snaps, 25th in the league.

I believe we will see more wide receiver targets, but Achane is not a prototypical running back in the passing game.

It could be a one-off, but Achane out-snapped Raheem Mostert 3-0 inside the 10-yard line on Sunday.

Mostert lost a fumble early in the second half last week and then was ghosted for the remainder of the game.

Mostert has been a thorn to Achane near the end zone. I don’t believe we are completely past those days, but Mostert is a touchdown-dependent option if you’re chasing him.

The Rams are allowing 15.4 rushing points per game (22nd) and 144 total yards per game (23rd) to running backs.

Kyren Williams (TRUST): Williams handled 23 touches for 95 yards on Sunday and was kept out of the end zone for the first time this season.

Williams found no room to run (22 attempts for 69 yards), something that has been an issue this season, but he has covered with volume and touchdown production.

Without the latter, the rushing inefficiency stood out more.

Out of 47 running backs with 50 or more runs this season, Williams is 41st in yards per carry (3.7 YPC) and 42nd in explosive run rate (6.2%).

Despite missing out on the touchdown deodorant last week, Williams had another 23 touches, his sixth straight game with 20 or more touches.

No back has a workload as good as his. 

He leads the NFL with 84.2% of his backfield touches.

As a home favorite with a high team total, it is hard to run away from that type of volume in this game environment. 

The matchup is also objectively great on paper.

Miami has allowed 4.59 yards per carry to running backs (22nd) with a 59.1% success rate against backfield runs (24th).

They have allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs (31st).

Running backs have scored 42.2% of the points allowed by Miami (31st).

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (TRUST): Hill has had modest games of 6-72-0 and 4-80-0 since Tua has returned, not giving us the full ceiling production to this point that carried Hill’s offseason ADP.

He still has not been a top-30 scorer since Week 1.

This is a strong spot for that to change.

While Miami has spread the ball around more this season, the games that Tua has played have pushed some of that action.

We are still working with a smaller sample with Tua playing this season, but two of his starts have been against the Bills and another was against Arizona. 

The Bills have faced the highest rate of targets to running backs all season, so De’Von Achane being utilized in those matchups makes sense.

Buffalo sees the second-lowest rate of targets to wide receivers.

Arizona does not rush the passer and plays a high rate of shell coverage. They sat in Cover 2 at a season-high rate against Miami in Week 8.

Hill still had 9 targets in that game.

As noted, the Rams play a lot of zone. 

As a byproduct, they play Cover 3 on 39.7% of passing snaps, which is sixth in the league.

Against Cover 3, Tua has targeted Hill on a team-high 28% of his routes with 3.04 yards per route run.

The Rams also have been flooded by wide receivers and have allowed a ton of big plays to the position.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield to wide receivers, the Rams have allowed a 54% completion rate (26th), 13.6 yards per attempt (29th), and a league-high 8 touchdowns.

Seattle wide receivers (without DK Metcalf) caught 10-of-15 targets for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns on throws 10 or more yards downfield.

On throws 20 or more yards downfield to wideouts, they have allowed a 48.3% completion rate (30th) and a league-high 6 touchdowns.

Puka Nacua: We entered Sunday nervous that Nacua may be limited to aggravating his knee in practice late last week, but he ended up limited due to an ejection for throwing a punch in the first half.

Before his ejection, Nacua was on the field for 81.8% of the dropbacks and was second on the team with 4 targets, so there were no restrictions based on missing practice Friday. 

As long as Nacua is good to go this week, he is back in play on the WR1/WR2 line.

Nacua and Cooper Kupp have now run 51 routes on the field together this season. 

Nacua has collected 10-of-14 targets for 120 yards on those snaps while Kupp has caught 15-of-19 targets for 150 yards.

Nacua plays 71.8% of his snaps out wide compared to 25.4% for Kupp.

The Dolphins have allowed 8.8 yards per target to outside receivers (22nd) but have allowed only a 3% touchdown rate (8th) to those receivers.

Cooper Kupp: Kupp secured 11-of-14 targets for 104 yards on Sunday in Seattle.

Kupp only had 4 catches for 23 yards with Nacua off the field, so the afternoon was not heavily aided by Nacua leaving the game early.

Kupp had his best outing playing alongside Nacua. 

There will surely be oscillation here between Kupp and Nacua as the season goes on, but with both players on the field, they have combined for 64.8% of the team targets.

The ball is largely going to those two players, so we are handling both wideouts in the same area of fantasy producers.

Miami has been a little softer against slot receivers, allowing 8.8 yards per target (22nd) and a 76.2% catch rate (31st) to those receivers.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle had a box score that will be hard to replicate. 

He finished with 2 catches for -4 yards and a touchdown. 

Waddle had a 7-yard touchdown and another 12-yard catch on the same drive but lost 20 yards on the lateral that ended the game.

Waddle now only has 13.7% of the team targets with Tua on the field this season, which is fourth on the team.

I do not have as much confidence in Waddle versus Tyreek since Hill has consistently earned more targets, but I do believe that the sample size mentioned earlier has impacted where the ball has gone in this offense. 

I would firmly bet against Waddle having a target share this low for the remainder of the season, even accounting for opportunities for Achane. 

I won’t reiterate all of the stats that the Rams have against wideouts we laid out with Hill, but this is a good spot for receiver production.

Playing on the potential regression for Waddle to earn more targets based on the matchup, I would give Waddle another look as a matchup-based WR2/WR3.

Demarcus Robinson: Robinson was the player who benefited the most with Nacua leaving early on Sunday, catching 6-of-9 targets for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Robinson caught 4 of those for 63 yards and a touchdown after Nacua exited.

On 47 routes this season with both Nacua and Kupp on the field, Robinson has 3 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown, drawing 7.8% of the team targets.

We have seen Robinson be a touchdown scorer in this offense going back to last year, so we won’t throw out the box scores from the past two games completely, but he is a touchdown-dependent FLEX.

Tight End

Jonnu Smith: Smith grabbed 5-of-6 targets for 46 yards on Sunday. 

While the box score was middling, Smith has now had target rates of 25.8%, 31.8%, 15.8%, and 22.2% over his past four games.

I have mentioned a few notes about the sample size with Tua being impacted by a few opponents, but what is a strong signal for Smith is that he established himself as the primary tight end.

Smith has run a route on 80.6%, 70%, and 83.3% of the dropbacks in the past three games.

He never hit 70% in a game over the first five games.

While I do expect the wide receivers to be more involved this week than they were in both matchups against the Bills (which boosted Smith), he is playing more, giving him more stability to run into production.

This is a solid matchup for that if streaming Smith or using him as a dart in single-game DFS.

The Rams have allowed an 80% catch rate (28th), 9.5 yards per target (31st), and an 8% touchdown rate (28th) to tight ends. 

Rams TE: Colby Parkinson was not targeted on Sunday and found himself in a rotation for the first time this season.

Parkinson was on the field for a season-low 43.2% of the dropbacks while Davis Allen was on the field for 45.5%.

We will see if that is static moving forward, but any Rams tight end is only hoping to catch a ball in the end zone.

More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet: