Ravens vs. Bengals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Bengals and Ravens on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson:  Sunday was another hyper-efficient game for the QB1 in fantasy this season.

Jackson finished last week as QB5 (23.6 points), the seventh time this season he has scored more than 20 points in standard scoring.

Jackson ran for a season-low four yards, doing all of that lifting as a passer.

Against what was statistically the best pass defense in the NFL entering last week, Jackson completed a season-high 84.2% (16-of-19) of his passes for 280 yards (14.7 yards per attempt) with 3 touchdowns.

He averaged 1.22 passing points per attempt, the second-most for a quarterback in a game this season (he also had the best game this year in that department back in Week 7).

Last week, we discussed Jackson's best surrounding group of offensive weapons and players who can separate after the team acquired Diontae Johnson.

Jackson is the best fantasy option at the position.

When these teams played in Week 5, Jackson was the QB3 (33.4 points).

Chasing the scoreboard, Jackson threw a season-high 42 times, throwing for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns.

He also added 55 yards rushing.

Baltimore trailed that game for all but 1:35 of the second half.

Given the implied game script based on the betting line, we will not expect a repeat in passing volume, but a shootout remains a possibility in the rematch.

This is the highest game total of the week.

When these teams played in Week 5, the Bengals blitzed Jackson on 40.4% of his dropbacks, their highest rate in a game this season.

When he was blitzed in that game, Jackson connected on 14-of-19 passes (73.7%) for 183 yards (9.6 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.

Cincinnati may not want to revisit that approach.

When they did not blitz in that game, Jackson was 12-of-23 (52.2%) for 165 yards (7.2 Y/A) but still threw 2 touchdowns.

The Bengals have allowed a league-high 33.7 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks as a cherry here, but since Jackson did not run last week and is dealing with a knee issue that has prevented him from practicing, we cannot lean on those yards.

Joe Burrow: Burrow still was impacted from a yardage perspective on Sunday without Tee Higgins, but it didn’t matter much as he threw 5 touchdown passes for the second time this season.

Burrow averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt, averaging 6.2 Y/A without Higgins on the field for 172 dropbacks this season.

On 163 dropbacks with Higgins on the field, Burrow averages 8.8 Y/A.

We do not know if Higgins will be active on Thursday, but his presence still matters.

When you throw 5 touchdowns, it does not matter, but we do not want to live on that outcome anchoring Burrow’s night.

He leads the NFL with 8 touchdown passes inside of the five-yard line and is second among all quarterbacks with 6.3 passing touchdowns over expectations.

Burrow averaged 10.5 Y/A in the Week 5 meeting between these teams with Higgins on the field.

Burrow also 5 touchdowns in that game to go along with a season-high 392 passing yards.

Since that week, he has thrown for 208, 181, 234, and 251 yards.

I believe there is some fragility here if we do not have Higgins and Burrow does not run as hot in the touchdown department as a week ago.

While we prefer to have a 100% Higgins to elevate Burrow’s range of outcomes for efficiency through the air, this is still a solid spot to run him back as a mid-range QB1 for fantasy based on the implied game environment and top-down matchup.

The Ravens allow 18.5 passing points per game, 31st in the league.

They have played better at home than on the road, however.

Baltimore allows a 65.9% completion rate (22nd), 6.9 Y/A (14th), 2.9% touchdown rate (7th), and 9.8% sack rate (5th) at home.

On the road, they have allowed a 66.7% completion rate (20th), 8.7 Y/A (29th), a 6.9% touchdown rate (27th), and a 6.0% sack rate (18th).

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Running Back

Derrick Henry (TRUST): Henry kept up his stellar season on Sunday, turning 24 touches into 133 yards and 2 touchdowns against Denver.

Henry leads the NFL in rushes (168), rushing yards (1,052), yards from scrimmage (1,145 yards), and touchdowns (13) through nine games.

He had 1,381 total yards and 12 touchdowns in 17 games last season.

He has a touchdown in every game this season.

That includes 16 touches for 96 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 5.

The Bengals did what they could to get Henry out of the game by building a lead.

Baltimore trailed more than implied and was forced to throw their most passes of the season.

Playing catch up, Henry only played 8 snaps with 2 touches in the third and fourth quarters.

Justice Hill was on the field for 24 of those snaps.

The Ravens tied the game and got the ball in overtime, but Henry ripped off a 51-yard run to set up the game-winning kick and make his total line look much better than before.

With the Ravens at home favorites here (and potentially with Tee Higgins sidelined on the other side), the Bengals will have a tougher implied time scripting Henry out of the game as they did in Week 5.

When Henry is on the field, the Ravens run the ball 63.8% of the time, the highest rate for a running back when he is in the game.

Henry has been the RB14, RB1, RB4, and RB5 in his weeks at home this season.

The Bengals have played the run better in recent weeks against the Giants, Browns, and Raiders, but we did see Saquon Barkley rush 22 times for 108 yards against them two weeks ago.

In bulk, the Bengals still have the worst success rate against running back runs (54.4%) in the NFL.

26.2% of those runs have resulted in a first down or a touchdown, 28th in the league.

Chase Brown: Brown got his first taste as an NFL workhorse on Sunday, handling a career-high 32 touches for 157 yards and a touchdown.

Brown played 56 snaps (80%) while running a route on a season-high 63.4% of the team dropbacks.

Brown only pass-blocked three times (and allowed pressure on one of them), but he handled 100% of the backfield touches.

That was only the fourth time this season when a running back had all his backfield touches.

The bottom line is that Brown did not fail much of any test.

However, everything did align perfectly last week with no Zack Moss, playing as a home favorite that controlled the game script, and playing against a run defense that has been exploited all season.

Moss was sent to injured reserve on Tuesday.

The team acquired Khalil Herbert from the Bears, but he should not be expected to have a large role in a short week.

Herbert is a big-picture thorn replacing Moss’ role (and Herbert could be better than Moss in that role), but Brown should have another sizeable workload this week.

That keeps Brown in play as an upside RB2.

We will need Brown to roll over that same role from last week, as this matchup is more challenging as a road underdog.

The Ravens have allowed 3.23 YPC to running backs (2nd) and 8.5 rushing points per game (2nd) to backfields.

They allow 11.3 receiving points per game to the position (29th) as an added-out for Brown.

That is where Brown made some inroads back in Week 5.

Brown only rushed 12 times for 46 yards (3.8 YPC) with a 33.3% success rate but was able to catch 3 passes and a touchdown out of the backfield.

Justice Hill: Hill has single-digit touches in every game but one this season, so he is not much more than a single-game DFS dart.

But if you are going down that road this week, Hill has been at his best in these primetime games.

His only three weeks as a top-30 scorer have come in the three primetime games for the Ravens, with receiving lines of 6-52-0, 6-78-1, and 3-44-1 on those nights.

When these teams played in Week 5, Hill only had 6 touches for 25 yards.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase (TRUST): If I told you that Joe Burrow threw 5 touchdown passes in a game, you would surely bet on Chase having one of those, but he was the odd man out of the end zone on Sunday.

Chase ended Sunday catching 7-of-11 targets for 43 yards.

With Tee Higgins off the field, Chase has been used more as a volume-based chain mover.

On 164 routes with Higgins off the field this season, Chase does have a team-high 24.3% of the targets, but he averages only 1.30 yards per route run on those plays with 5.5 air yards per target.

Chase only has an intermediate target rate of 11.1% and a deep target rate of 8.3% without Higgins on the field.

On 161 routes run with Higgins on the field, Chase averages 3.12 yards per route run and 10.7 air yards per target with a 20.6% intermediate target rate and 17.6% deep target rate.

Based on those splits, we would prefer Chase to have Higgins on the field, but this is a solid top-down matchup to attack for feature wideouts.

The Ravens are allowing a league-high 20.9 PPR points to opposing WR1 targets.

Baltimore has allowed a top-five scoring wide receiver in four of their past five games which includes allowing the WR1 overall week to Chase back in Week 5 when he caught 10-of-12 targets for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Zay Flowers: Flowers kept his breakout second season cooking last week, catching 5-of-6 targets for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Flowers has now hit 100 yards in four of his past five games.

Of all wide receivers with 100-plus routes this season, Flowers is the WR9 in yards per route run (2.45) and the WR6 in target share (27.3%).

We have run into a few volatile weeks in which Baltimore did not pass (and Flowers himself suffered an ankle injury), but he is someone to ride with as an upside WR2.

It could be nothing, given the blowout last week, but in the first game since the Diontae Johnson trade, Flowers did run a route on a season-low 72.7% of the dropbacks (76.2% before the fourth quarter).

He was on the field for 92.6% prior.

When these teams played in Week 5, Flowers caught 7-of-12 targets for 111 yards, taking advantage of how blitz-heavy the Bengals were.

Flowers has a team-high 29.3% target share with 3.49 yards per route when Lamar Jackson has been blitzed.

Even if the Bengals alter their approach, Cincinnati has allowed a top-15 wideout in three straight games to Jakobi Meyers (8-105-0), DeVonta Smith (6-85-1), and Cedric Tillman (8-81-0).

Tee Higgins: We do not know if Higgins will suit up on Thursday.

He may have been held out on Sunday due to the short week here against a division rival, but the extended layoff after this game could prevent him from being put on the field if he is not 100%.

We will follow his status.

If Higgins can play, we will layer in some volatility here as a boom-or-bust WR2 since he may not be completely healthy.

We have done this with Higgins before when he has ghosted gamers at less than 100%.

If you can stomach the volatility, this spot is worth chasing an upside outcome.

Higgins has been targeted on 27.6% of his routes when active, which would be a career-high.

He out-targeted Chase in four straight games they have played together.

When these teams played in Week 5, Higgins caught 9-of-14 targets for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns.

If Higgins does not play, Andrei Iosivas gets a lift as a touchdown-dependent FLEX.

Iosivas has been on the field for 90.1% of the dropbacks without Higgins available.

He averages only 0.28 yards per route on those plays, but he has 3 touchdowns.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman is best used in single-game DFS stacks.

After catching 3-of-4 targets for 25 yards on Sunday, Bateman has 15.9% of the team targets on the season.

He has not had more than 4 receptions in a game this season.

If you are chasing the game environment or the matchup, Bateman did have a season-high 8 targets when these teams played in Week 5, catching 4 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Diontae Johnson: We expected Johnson to be eased into this offense, which happened on Sunday.

He ran just 6 pass routes (27.3% of the dropbacks) without a target.

Johnson should continue to work into this offense, but on a short week with limited practice time, he is best used as a flyer in single-game DFS over confidently started in seasonal leagues.

Tight End

Mark Andrews: Andrews only caught 2 passes for 26 yards on Sunday.

After running a route on a season-high 78% of the dropbacks in Week 8, Andrews was on the field for 50% last week.

He only ran 11 routes in the game paired with a blowout game script.

Andrews is second in ESPN’s Open Score but cannot find consistent snaps.

That could change on Thursday after Isaiah Likely opened the week dealing with a hamstring issue.

If Likely were to miss the game, Andrews would get a significant lift and have a lot of upside here.

The Bengals have struggled against tight ends, allowing a 77.3% catch rate (24th), 7.9 yards per target (22nd), and a 7.6% touchdown rate (25th) to tight ends.

When these teams played in Week 5, Baltimore tight ends combined to catch 10 of 12 targets for 132 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Andrews caught 4-of-5 for 55 yards.

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki kept up his torrid splits without Tee Higgins on the field.

Gesicki caught 5-of-6 targets for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Raiders.

He now has 353 yards receiving after posting 244 yards all of 2023.

On 91 routes with Higgins off the field this season, Gesicki has been targeted on 29.7% of those routes with 3.10 yards per route run.

In the four games that Higgins has missed, Gesicki has notched lines of 3-18-0, 7-91-0, 7-73-0, and 5-100-2.

On 85 routes with Higgins on the field, Gesicki has been targeted on 10.6% of his routes with 0.84 yards per route.

Gesicki could run into more snaps with Erick All lost for the season, but that could also mean Tanner Hudson gets more snaps since Gesicki has almost exclusively played in 11 personnel this year while All and Drew Sample were in on heavier sets.

If Higgins does miss another week, then Gesicki can be thrown right back in as a viable streamer.

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