Dynasty Fantasy Football Running Back Tiers, 2024

Throughout May, we will be layering in some additional context to go along with the player ranking tables.

After laying the groundwork this offseason with full dynasty player rankings, we are going to break that linear list down a bit into tiers with some added flavor.

You can also check out my full dynasty rookie rankings for those with rookie-only drafts on the horizon, and I have already published Dynasty tiers for quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Tiers:

• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

Some really quick methodology here if you are new to how I do fantasy tiers.

I make my dynasty tiers based on a blend of age, fantasy performance, career arc, team situation, and fantasy archetype.

There is some overlap to actual player rankings, but these tiers do not specifically follow the rankings, instead following those archetypes.

The purpose of tiers is not to be a carbon copy of player rankings.

The purpose is to spot a potential arbitrage situation and shop in different buckets based on how you are constructing your team in startups as well as looking for trade opportunities.

Top Down Running Back Notes

Age is a catalyst for analysis among all of the positions in dynasty formats, but it has no larger impact on perceived value than it does for running backs.

The position burns bright early and fades quickly.

Over the past 30 years, 35.3% of all RB1 scoring seasons have come from backs older than 26.

Just 26 of the 360 total individual top-12 seasons over that span have come from a back age 30 or older.

That has skewed younger over the past decade.

60% of all RB1 scoring seasons over the past 10 seasons have come from backs 25 years old or younger.

Just nine of those seasons have come from a back at age 30 or older.

18.3% of those seasons were from a running back over 27.

When looking at the pantheon of the position and the true players that impact seasonal outcomes, there have been just 14 running backs over the age of 27 to turn in a top-three scoring fantasy campaign in a given season over the past 30 years.

The last time that occurred was in 2015.

The last time a running back over the age of 27 was the highest-scoring running back overall came back in 2007.

We are also in a unique state of the position at running back position given that teams are now deploying more compartmentalized backfields and using more backs in specific roles.

The three-down running back is now a finite resource for fantasy football.

It is even harder to find one of those guys who does not play alongside a mobile quarterback, which can threaten their receiving work and goal-line opportunities.

Even with the added 17th game, touches continue to go down at the top of the position.

Even with the season expansion, we have only had an average of six running backs accrue 300 or more touches per year.

Paired with the opening notes on positional longevity, that makes it hard to overly invest in running backs from a dynasty stance. Especially in a startup league compared to wide receivers.

The producers at running back are on the “older” range of the age spectrum, and the position itself is impacted by committees and a surplus of viable candidates for the available jobs across the league, making running back the “softest” it has ever been for dynasty since I have been playing.

*Player Age = Age on 9/1/2024

Tier 1 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Bijan Robinson (Age: 22.6)
• Breece Hall (23.3)

As noted above, we lack a strong number of backs who check all the boxes we are looking for with every-down ability while ascending on their career arcs.

Bijan Robinson was as advertised in year one, turning in 1,463 yards and eight touchdowns himself on 272 touches.

Only five other running backs had more total yards than Robinson had a year ago, and he did that on 50.6% of his backfield touches. The others ahead of him had 69.5%, 72.1%, 62.2%, 76.0%, and 76.1%.

Robinson accounted for 16.9% of the Atlanta targets as a rookie, which trailed only Christian McCaffrey (17.6%) in his position.

Breece Hall has been the RB8 and the RB6 in points per game over his first two seasons in the league.

He turned 299 touches into 1,585 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns in 2023.

Only Christian McCaffrey finished with more total yards than Hall did among running backs last season despite a slow start to the season in terms of playing time and operating in one of the league’s worst offensive climates.

Hall did not even play 50% of the offensive snaps in a game until Week 5.

Entering 2024 fully removed from his ACL injury, with Aaron Rodgers returning and significant pieces added to the offensive line, Hall is set up strongly.

Tier 2 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Christian McCaffrey (Age: 28.2)

Christian McCaffrey operates in a tier of his own for Dynasty purposes.

He is approaching the age cliff at the position and does have a career history of soft-tissue injuries, but he is still the best player at his position in a vacuum.

There is risk to McCaffrey, but the reward is having a player who can provide some of the strongest positional leverage across any position.

If you are a team rostering McCaffrey, you are more than likely an immediate contender to win your league.

On the few teams in a position with CMC and a weak roster around him, you are unlikely to get anything close to market value for him in a trade.

In the past four seasons that McCaffrey has played in full, he has finished as the RB2, RB1, RB2, and RB1 in overall scoring.

In the two seasons he was limited by injuries during that frame, he was the RB1 and RB5 in points scored per game.

McCaffrey has always been an excellent fantasy asset, but that was accelerated when paired with Kyle Shanahan.

McCaffrey led the NFL in touches (339), rushing yards (1,459), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns last season.

McCaffrey has now played 33 games with the 49ers, scoring 39 touchdowns (with a passing touchdown) in those games.

He has played in just six games with the 49ers in which he has not scored a touchdown.

Tier 3 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Jahmyr Gibbs (Age: 22.4)
• De’Von Achane (22.9)

After those opening three running backs, we are already in the wide-open space at the position.

A decade ago, the archetype of running back that both Jahmyr Gibbs and De’Von Achane are would have been limited for fantasy success.

But with the way the NFL is using their running backs, the field has opened a spot for these “satellite-plus” backs to have more stability as fantasy options, even if they never push for more than 250 touches in an NFL season.

Alvin Kamara has been the benchmark fantasy player of this archetype in the modern NFL, but even Kamara was a bigger back than both of these players.

Both Gibbs and Achane play in systems that are going to get other backs involved, but like Kamara, these two backs are also in perfect homes to harness the pros of what they bring to the table, something that this archetype of running back does not always get at the team level.

Detroit took some flak for selecting Gibbs 12th overall last spring, but Gibbs turned 234 touches into 1,261 total yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie.

Both David Montgomery and Gibbs missed time over the front half of the season, but from Week 10 on, the Lions had both available and utilized both in creating one of the best tandems in the league.

Detroit RBs From Week 10 On:

Over those final nine games of the regular season with both backs sharing the backfield, Gibbs did have four weeks as the RB24 or lower, but his contingency value for any time this backfield is his can rival that of the opening tier.

In the three games that Monty missed last year, Gibbs was a top-three scoring back in all of those weeks.

Achane totaled 997 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns on just 130 touches.

He averaged an insane 7.8 yards per rush.

No other running back in league history has ever averaged more than 7.0 yards per carry with 100 or more rushes in a season.

Achane had a run of 10 or more yards on 21.6% of his runs as a rookie.

The only other player with a higher rate in the 2000s was Kamara back in 2017.

Achane averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game over the eight in which he reached double-digit touches. He was the RB8 or better in six of those eight games.

While Achane was electric whenever he was available, that availability was an issue as a rookie.

He had a shoulder injury in the preseason that put him behind the curve to open the season, had an MCL sprain that caused him to miss four weeks in the middle of the season, then he re-aggravated that injury in his first game back after just three total snaps. Achane then closed the season with a toe injury.

At the end of his rookie season, Achane missed six total games and had two other games in which he totaled nine snaps.

While a healthy version of Achane looks bonkers if you could extrapolate his 2023 efficiency, his size (5-foot-9 and 188 pounds) could be a factor and restrictor plate on ever being maxed out with immense volume.

Tier 4 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Jonathan Taylor (Age:25.6)
• Travis Etienne (25.6)
• Saquon Barkley (27.6)
• Josh Jacobs (26.6)

The backs in this tier have workhorse capability paired with being ahead of the age curve at the position.

They may not carry the complete appeal of previous backs, but you can make an upside case for each of these backs having multiple seasons of RB1 production remaining on the table for their careers.

After destroying box scores in the 2021 season, the past two years for Jonathan Taylor have been marred by injuries and a contractual dispute.

In that 2021 season, Taylor turned 372 touches into 2,171 total yards and 20 touchdowns.

Over the past two seasons since, he has 408 touches for 1,898 total yards and 12 touchdowns.

After missing six games in 2022 dealing with ongoing ankle issues, Taylor did not play in the first four games of 2023 due to a holdout looking for a trade or a new contract.

It took another three weeks for Taylor to play more than 50% of the team snaps.

He then suffered a torn ligament in his thumb in Week 12 which forced him to miss the following three weeks.

At least when he was on the field, Taylor showed a bounce back in multiple areas compared to his 2022 season which was limited by that ankle issue.

He also capped the season with 188 yards rushing on 30 carries in the season finale with the season a playoff spot on the line, reminding us that he still has that juice from his early-career breakout.

Travis Etienne amassed 1,484 total yards and 12 touchdowns on 325 touches in 2023, his first full season as a workhorse back.

His production was more of a result of sheer volume over efficiency, but that’s the out we are looking for in fantasy football when a player or his offensive environment fails to live up to expectations as the 2023 Jaguars did.

Etienne was efficient in 2022 with 5.7 yards per touch compared to last season (4.6 yards per touch), so the blame for last year’s decline is not entirely on him.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes last season, Etienne was modestly 26th in yards after contact per rush (2.87 yards) but was 40th among those same players in yards before contact per rush (0.91 yards).

In 2022, Etienne averaged 2.02 yards before contact per rush.

Etienne was third among all running backs in touches last season and was second in the NFL in the share of backfield touches (76.1%) he had.

I already broke down Saquon Barkley joining the Eagles this offseason, so we will gloss over him here to reserve space.

I did the same for Josh Jacobs joining the Packers.

Since that signing, Jacobs has had a few things move on the periphery.

The team retained AJ Dillon and then selected MarShawn Lloyd in the NFL Draft. Lloyd has a game similar to Aaron Jones, so it is easy to see his appeal to this organization.

The Packers have deployed a backfield committee during Matt LaFleur‘s tenure.

I still anticipate the backfield split in 2024 for Jacobs to be the largest that the Green Bay RB1 has received under LaFluer, but Jacobs has always been a running back who has dominated his backfield in the past.

There is the opening for a reduction in production if he gives any ground compared to his Raiders years.

Tier 5 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Rachaad White (Age: 25.6)
• Kenneth Walker (23.9)
• Kyren Williams (24.0)
• James Cook (24.9)
• Isiah Pacheco (25.5)

These backs have shown enough to be bullish on the positive end of their outcomes but also just enough fragility to give gamers some slight trepidation that the rug can be pulled out from their feet.

Rachaad White turned in a solid season in his second year, amassing 1,539 yards and nine touchdowns on 336 touches.

He accumulated those top-down counting stats through receiving efficiency and a lack of competition in the backfield.

White accounted for 76.0% of the Tampa Bay backfield touches, which was the third-highest rate for back last season.

White had 75.6% of the backfield rushes, which was second in the NFL behind Joe Mixon.

On those rushes, however, White was 40th in yards per rush (3.6 YPC) and 38th in explosive run rate (7.7%).

The Bucs once again have little to challenge White being called up to carry a high workload again in 2024, so they are looking for a spike in efficiency.

After turning 255 touches into 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns over 15 games as a rookie in 2022, Kenneth Walker turned 248 touches into 1,164 yards and nine touchdowns over 15 games last season.

Walker had a dip across the board in nearly every efficiency metric as a rusher, going from 4.6 YPC as a rookie down to 4.1 YPC last season.

His explosive run rate went from 12.7% down to 11.0% last season.

Walker’s rookie season and year two look eerily similar to how Najee Harris opened his career.

Harris lost immediate snaps in year two (and then again in year three), something that happened to Walker when Seattle added Zach Charbonnet.

Charbonnet already carved into a third-down role in the offense as a rookie, playing 122 third downs compared to 35 for Walker.

Walker is a more explosive back than Harris is to give him added outs on fewer opportunities, but also may never run into enough three-down usage to be a consistent RB1.

Through two seasons, Walker is averaging 19.8 points per game in weeks with a touchdown as opposed to just 8.6 points per game in his weeks without a score.

After posting just 215 total yards on 44 touches over 10 games as a rookie, Kyren Williams exploded in year two for 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns on 260 touches over 12 games.

He was the RB2 in points per game behind only Christian McCaffrey.

At age 24 and paired with strong offensive attachment, Williams has a strong case to make for belonging in Tier 1.

Any running back that has led this Rams backfield under Sean McVay as a true RB1 has smashed for fantasy football.

The question marks come from being a low-investment draft pick, coming out of next to nowhere, his size and injury history, and the team adding Blake Corum to the roster this offseason.

Selling high on a day three running back breakout that was volume-driven has always been better dynasty practice.

Williams had six games with over 90% of the backfield touches, which was tied for the most in the NFL with Joe Mixon. Williams only played in 12 games while Mixon played all in all 17.

Williams had to have that workload because the rest of the Rams backfield was so limited.

With Williams off the field last season, the backup running backs for the Rams were 25th in the NFL in EPA per rush and dead last with 3.3 yards per carry.

Corum has a low bar to clear to be better than that and carve into more opportunities than the reserves received a year ago.

Williams missed four games due to an ankle injury (he rested in Week 18).

Williams was also banged up in the team’s playoff game with a hand injury, which led to offseason surgery.

Through two NFL seasons, Williams has had multiple foot and ankle injuries.

Williams is not the biggest back in the league at 5-foot-9 and 194 pounds.

His high workload paired with his frame could have the Rams looking solely for insurance with the addition of Corum, but Corum is also the kind of back that comes with just enough pedigree and draft capital to keep gamers on notice.

That said, Corum’s addition is not a complete death knell, because running backs do not often rollover that type of necessary usage.

If Williams remains as effective per opportunity as he was last season, he can still concede touches and be an effective back for fantasy.

James Cook made significant strides in his second season.

After 110 touches for 687 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie, Cook turned 281 touches into 1,567 yards and six touchdowns last season.

Only Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall had more total yards on the season than Cook did.

Cook did that on 62.2% of the backfield touches, which was 11th in the league.

While that is a feather in Cook’s cap, we still need to get more money touches for him in fantasy moving forward.

Cook has just four rushing touchdowns through two NFL seasons.

Outside of dealing with Josh Allen near the end zone. the Bills did not use Cook as a thumper near the goal line or in short yardage.

Latavius Murray out-snapped Cook 25-to-13 inside of the five-yard line last season.

Murray also out-snapped Cook 75-to-60 in situations needing 1-3 yards for a new set of downs. Murray out-touched Cook 38-to-32 in those situations.

Cook was the average RB29 weekly in his 12 games without a touchdown in 2023, posting just two RB1 scoring weeks in those games.

Buffalo only added rookie running backs to the roster this offseason while Murray remains a free agent, so we need Cook to work into more of those opportunities.

Building on the way he finished his rookie season in 2022, Isiah Pacheco turned 249 touches into 1,179 yards and nine touchdowns over 14 games in his second season.

Pacheco has been a mixed bag as a runner in the NFL, but the top-down results are there.

Already getting over 2,000 total yards and 14 touchdowns through two seasons of a seventh-round pick is a net win, regardless of how he got there.

In 2023, Pacheco ranked 25th among running backs in success rate as a runner (37.1%) and 24th in explosive run rate (9.8%).

The Chiefs are an offense we inherently want attachment to, and the remaining backs on the roster are largely nondescript.

Tier 6 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Jonathon Brooks (21.1)
• Trey Benson (22.1)

We have another mini-tier here with the top two running backs selected in the NFL Draft.

It is not hard to make the bull case for each of these backs making significant spikes in value when I come back into this space in 2025.

Right now, I am just pricing in enough fragility based on depressed draft capital compared to previous draft classes and the potential that each of these backs also has objective roadblocks in their path to create underperformance as well.

The case against Jonathon Brooks is that he is returning from a torn ACL in November and has one limited season of success as his collegiate output since he was stuck behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson at Texas.

If it takes Brooks a ramp-up period where he is not garnering a high workload in what could be one of the worst offenses in the league, then that opens the door for year two competition and beyond.

The bull case is that Brooks returns to a full workload this season and operates as a three-down back down the stretch.

The Panthers invested in their offensive line, and Dave Canales has already told us that he is going to be stubborn with the running game.

You can make a compelling case that Brooks is a more talented back than Rachaad White, to whom Canales gave a monster workload a year ago.

Trey Benson landed in a spot where James Conner will undoubtedly thwart his overall touch count, but Conner has also never played a full NFL season to this point and is only under contract for the 2024 season.

Benson could run into more 2024 opportunities than we can objectively project if Conner misses time again. This is an offense that showed Drew Petzing has chops as an offensive coordinator as well, given the limitations that Arizona had in 2023.

As a team, Arizona was sixth in the NFL in EPA per rush (0.02) and second in the league in yards per carry (5.0 YPC).

Tier 7 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Joe Mixon (Age: 28.1)
• Alvin Kamara (29.1)
• Derrick Henry (30.7)
• Aaron Jones (29.7)
• Nick Chubb (28.7)
• James Conner (29.3)
• Austin Ekeler (29.3)

This tier is full of backs that have lived as RB1 fantasy options for us to this point.

Most of these backs have a path to contend for RB1 output again in 2024 but also come at or past the age apex at the position.

Gamers would not blink if any of these backs evaporate this season.

That said, this is a tier of backs that contenders are going to pursue adding to rosters at a discount based on that concern being priced in.

The two most appealing backs to me based on price are Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones, but the only backs I have serious trepidation here in adding would be Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler.

You can find writeups on Henry joining the Ravens and Ekeler going to Washington earlier this spring.

Joe Mixon has the cleanest path to being the “safest” of these backs joining an ascending Houston offense.

The minor rub with Mixon is that he has already played in a great offensive environment and has still fallen short of being an elite fantasy option. He has largely settled into a role on rosters as a fringe RB1.

Again, there is nothing wrong with that. We are just setting expectations properly.

Mixon has posted over 1,200 total yards in five of the past six seasons and is a reliable workhorse back.

Alvin Kamara averaged a career-low 4.5 yards per touch in 2023.

He caught 75 passes in just 13 games, one fewer than Breece Hall, but Kamara also averaged a career-low 6.2 yards per reception.

As a runner, Kamara was 35th out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes with 3.9 yards per carry.

The explosive runs for Kamara have disappeared in recent seasons.

Kamara had a run of 10 or more yards on 8.3% of his runs, 34th in the league.

Over the past three seasons, his 8.7% explosive run rate ranks 65th at the position after he posted a 13.6% rate earlier in his career.

Kamara’s 2.51 yards after contact per rush were the fewest of his career, a number that has gone down from the season prior in five consecutive seasons.

We could see more of Kendre Miller in year two in the run game.

We have also seen the touchdowns for Kamara semi-dry up.

He has 11 total rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons as he has contended with Taysom Hill in that area of the field.

Kamara has 12 total rushing attempts inside of the five-yard line over that span while Hill has 10.

Hill has nine rushes from the 1-2 yard lines while Kamara has eight.

All of that said, Kamara was still the RB3 in PPR formats and the RB5 in 0.5 PPR formats in points per game last season despite once again being a lackluster producer on the ground, which shows the value of receptions in fantasy.

Aaron Jones will turn 30 during the upcoming season and is coming off a season in which he missed six games due to injury.

Jones suffered a hamstring in Week 1 after posting 127 total yards and two touchdowns.

He never got right until late in the season, returning to the lineup on two different occasions only to reaggravate that injury and miss more time.

There is certainly fragility here, but he was still a solid running back when healthy last season.

Over the final five games of the season, Jones went over 100 yards rushing in all five of those games.

Over that span of games, Jones had an explosive run on 20.6% of his rushes and averaged 4.14 yards after contact per rush.

James Conner averaged 5.1 yards per touch in 2023, his highest rate since 2018.

Of course, Conner also missed four games.

He has now missed multiple games in all seven of his NFL seasons.

Conner will be 29 years old and will enter the final season of his current contract.

Nick Chubb is the toughest player here.

He is arguably the most talented back in this tier but is in the final season of his contract and is coming off a significant injury.

Chubb suffered a severe knee injury just 18 snaps into Week 2, which forced him to miss the remainder of the season.

Chubb then had surgery on his MCL in September.

Waiting for that injury to heal, he then had a second surgery in mid-November to repair his ACL.

That second surgery will push right against nine months from surgery by the time the start of this season hits.

Gamers have to at least price in an outcome that Chubb is not the same player again in his career, even if playing for a bounce back in regaining his elite production to this stage of his career.

Tier 8 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• David Montgomery (Age: 27.2)
• Najee Harris (26.5)
• Rhamondre Stevenson (Age: 26.5)
• D’Andre Swift (25.6)
• Tony Pollard (27.3)

We are at a nebulous point for each of these backs in terms of dynasty value.

They are younger than the previous tier but also do not have the same projected workload as those backs to insulate inefficiency.

That point also ties in added fragility that these backs could outright be run down by teammates during the season.

David Montgomery turned 235 touches into 1,132 total yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns in his first season with the Lions.

Montgomery has now gone over 1,100 total yards in all five of his NFL seasons.

We already showcased how Montgomery split work close to evenly with Jahmyr Gibbs when both were together down the stretch.

The only element in play for Montgomery is that his ceiling was not as high as Gibbs’ despite being tied into touchdown production at a higher degree.

Montgomery was a fantasy RB1 in just one of those final nine games of the season.

37.6% of his fantasy points were solely from touchdowns (fourth among all running backs) while Gibbs was at 27.3%.

Najee Harris has gone over 1,200 total yards with eight touchdowns in each of his first three seasons in the NFL.

But his touches have also decreased in all three seasons.

Harris has gone from 86.4% of the backfield touches as a rookie in 2021 to 67.7% in 2022 to 57.3% last season.

Harris has only averaged 4.2 yards per touch over his three seasons, and the Steelers just declined his fifth-year option.

After amassing 1,461 total yards on 279 touches in 2022, Rhamondre Stevenson only managed 857 total yards on 194 touches before being shut down for the final five weeks with an ankle injury.

After averaging 5.0 and 5.2 yards per touch in his first two seasons in the league, Stevenson averaged only 4.4 yards per touch in 2023.

Stevenson went from second in the NFL in yards after contact per rush in 2022 (3.81) down to 32nd last season (2.80).

He ranked 42nd out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes in explosive run rate (6.4%) after ranking sixth in 2022 (14.3%).

Stevenson enters this season in the final year of his rookie contract with one good fantasy season that was impacted by New England being forced to give him a high workload due to injuries to the roster.

Stevenson has never been a back that has done much with his receiving opportunities outside of volume, and the team has added Antonio Gibson to push him out of the volume he has had in the passing game.

D’Andre Swift set career-highs with 268 touches and 1,263 yards with the Eagles last season.

After failing to rush for more than 617 yards in any of his first three seasons in Detroit, Swift ran for 1,049 yards in his first season in Philadelphia.

More importantly, Swift stayed healthy for the first time in his career. He played a career-high 630 snaps and only missed the final week of the regular season due to rest.

If there were nits to pick with Swift last season, he did have a career-low explosive run rate (9.6%) while his yards after contact per carry (2.42) ranked 45th.

Swift also averaged a career-low 2.4 receptions per game, something that could be impacted by Caleb Williams extending plays while joining another loaded passing game.

Tony Pollard received more action on the open market than expected, but you can find a look at his initial outlook on joining the Titans here.

Tier 9 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Zamir White (Age: 25.0)
• Javonte Williams (24.4)
• Brian Robinson (25.4)
• Zack Moss (26.7)
• Devin Singletary (27.0)

This tier is made up of the running backs who are projected to lead their backfield in the running game but have concerns as pass catchers.

They also do come with some fringe concerns in limited efficiency as runners.

Those two components can create unstable ground not only for fantasy points on a week-to-week level but can also compromise these backs retaining their grips on that overall lead role.

It is ironic to see Devin Singletary and Zack Moss go from sharing a backfield in Buffalo to regaining isolated value on new teams in 2023 to then being in a position to lead backfields in 2024.

Moss has more to contend with in Cincinnati than Singletary does in New York, but Moss is playing in the better offense overall to create scoring opportunities.

No running back had more carries inside of the five-yard line over the past two seasons than Joe Mixon did.

Zamir White and Brian Robinson are essentially the Spider-Man meme.

Neither back is going to pop off the page in terms of electricity, but they can do the dirty work as runners that keep them in favor of the coaching staff.

Over the final four weeks of the season, White closed as the RB12, RB16, RB16, and RB19 in scoring.

White ran the ball 84 times over that stretch, tied for the league lead.

In the half-season sample with what we saw from Antonio Pierce, we know what he is out to do.

Over their games under Pierce, the Raiders posted a 47.9% dropback rate when leading on the scoreboard, which was 29th in the league.

When trailing, that rate spiked up to 64.6%, which was 18th in the league.

That makes White a fragile volume-based RB2 that is going to be game-script-dependent.

White only caught nine passes over those four games.

They ran the football 52.2% of the time when he was on the field.

That rate was 46.0% with Josh Jacobs.

When leading and White was on the field, the Raiders ran the ball 61.0% of the time.

The only running backs with a higher run rate per snap when leading were Najee Harris (71.0%), Tyler Allgeier (68.9%), Kenneth Walker (63.6%), and Derrick Henry (63.6%).

The Raiders had one quality win versus a real quarterback while Pierce was the interim coach, so there is some concern that they roll over neutral game scripts.

After posting 857 yards and three touchdowns on 214 touches as a rookie in 2022, Brian Robinson came back in year two and totaled the same 214 touches, but this time he produced 1,101 total yards and nine touchdowns on those opportunities.

Robinson ranked ninth among all running backs with a first down or touchdown on 26.4% of his runs.

A reliable clasher, Robinson converted 69.0% of his short-yardage runs into a first down or score, which ranked 14th among 49 running backs with 100 or more attempts on the season.

We may not see Javonte Williams reach the highs we hoped due to his early-career injury or being stuck for another season in a potential timeshare with the Broncos.

Returning from a torn ACL, LCL, and PCL in 2022, Williams was not the same player last season that he was to open his career.

He averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per touch, turning 264 opportunities into 1,002 total yards and five touchdowns.

No running back with as many touches as Williams averaged fewer yards per opportunity.

A tackle-breaking machine exiting college and early in the pros, the 2.71 yards after contact per rush was the lowest rate of his early-career sample.

After forcing a missed tackle on 31.6% of his rushing attempts before injury, Williams only forced a missed tackle on 15.7% of his rushes last season.

Williams will only be 24 years old and will be a full year-plus removed from his injury, but also enters this season in the final year of his rookie contract.

We may have to look for his next spot to spark any optimism on a true bounce back.

Tier 10 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Tyjae Spears (Age: 23.2)
• Jaylen Warren (25.8)
• Jaleel McLaughlin (24.0)
• Zach Charbonnet (23.6)
• Chase Brown (24.4)
• Roschon Johnson (23.6)

This tier is the complete inverse of the previous tier.

These are younger, more explosive backs that have their touches compromised by their physical archetype or a veteran incumbent.

All of these backs have their immediate ceilings tied to contingency value playing behind or alongside a running back we have already hit on.

From a contractual stance, Jaylen Warren and Jaleel McLaughlin are behind backs that are set up to be unrestricted free against after this season.

The one obstacle that each of those backs still has to clear is that neither profiles as a back that will be given the complete keys to an offense and could be stuck as a change-of-pace option even if Najee Harris or Javonte Williams are gone in 2025. Denver has already added Audric Estime to the roster.

The door for Warren to have an extended role is wide since he is 215 pounds.

Tyjae Spears and Roschon Johnson are playing with backs that just were signed to healthy deals by their organizations.

I do expect Spears to have a role in the base offense for the Titans, but what type of role he has near the goal line could be an obstacle.

Chase Brown is arguably the hottest name in this tier based on his immediate opportunity paired with offensive attachment.

Zack Moss has never had more than 210 touches in a season to this point.

Brown only played 93 offensive snaps as a rookie, but he received a touch or target on 63.4% of his snaps played, the highest rate of any running back in the league.

When he entered the game, the Bengals had a designed play call for him two-thirds of the time.

Brown only had a 25.0% success rate as a runner (81st out of 88 running backs with 25 or more runs), but he also had an explosive run on 11.4% of those rushes (25th).

Tier 11 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Kendre Miller (Age: 22.2)
• MarShawn Lloyd (22.7)
• Keaton Mitchell (22.6)
• Blake Corum (23.8)
• Jaylen Wright (21.4)
• Ray Davis (24.8)
• Kimani Vidal (23.0)
• Tyrone Tracy (24.8)

We hit our first tier at the position where things begin to take a step of faith, but all of these young backs could immediately work their way into the previous two tiers.

There is a lot of contingent upside here. We just have to do some guesswork on how large the roles for these backs will be in 2024 when the entire offenses are available.

It is easy to make a case for players such as Ray Davis, MarShawn Lloyd, and Tyrone Tracy to have roles in the base offense that give them a pulse as more than contingency players, but we also should not just assume that backs with their draft capital will be slotted into tangible opportunity out of the box.

The Bills gave Ty Johnson snaps last season and also signed Frank Gore Jr. after the draft.

The Packers retained the ghost of AJ Dillon and gave Josh Jacobs a hefty contract. While Lloyd could have an opportunity to have a smaller package in the passing game than Aaron Jones had, he probably needs two injuries in 2024 to receive work near the end zone.

Blake Corum’s initial role is intriguing to see if he is more than a handcuff bet or a player that is going to cause a true split with Kyren Williams.

We already highlighted the injuries that Williams had early in his career paired with his size constraints.

With Williams off the field last season, the backup running backs for the Rams were 25th in the NFL in EPA per rush and dead last with 3.3 yards per carry.

It is also possible that Corum kills two birds with one stone as being a viable way to reduce the workload for Williams without giving up a ton of efficiency like a year ago when every non-Williams back touched the football.

We have seen previous Rams rookie backs such as Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers take time to carve out touches in the NFL, and they were selected with higher capital than Corum was. Those backs were also fighting for touches alongside Malcolm Brown, not only each other.

That said, any time a Rams running back has been a bell cow, that player has thrived for fantasy.

There have been 66 games under Sean McVay in which a running back has gotten 60% of the team rushes.

In those games, those backs have averaged 19.3 PPR points per game with a 55% hit rate as an RB1 scorer in weekly output.

I similarly view Corum as someone like Brian Robinson coming out of college. He may not be electric, but coaches are going to view him as a reliable player.

Players such as Kendre Miller, Keaton Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal are behind backs that are past the age curve at the position.

Mitchell showed some poor-man’s De’Von Achane explosion as a rookie, but unfortunately, he tore his ACL in December.

His surgery was on December 30, which puts the start of the season right at a nine-month recovery period, but we should expect the Ravens to take his return slow.

Tier 12 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Raheem Mostert (32.4)
• Gus Edwards (29.4)
• Ezekiel Elliott (29.1)

We have a smaller pocket of backs that profile similarly to the backs that are in Tier 9 but are past the point of return of the age spectrum.

Age did not mean anything for Raheem Mostert last season.

At age 31, Mostert set career highs with 234 touches, 1,187 total yards, and 21 touchdowns.

The only running backs to ever score more touchdowns in a season at age 30 or older are Priest Holmes in 2003 (27 touchdowns at age 30) and John Riggins (24 scores at age 34) in 1983.

The initial plan for Mostert’s workload last year may have been lower, but Miami dealt with players in and out of the lineup in their backfield all season long.

Mostert himself even missed two games to close the season.

Coming off of back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in Miami, the Dolphins added a year to his contract, which was originally set to expire after this season.

Gus Edwards is reuniting with Greg Roman in Los Angeles.

Since Edwards entered the NFL in 2018, there have been 44 running backs with 500 or more rushes.

On his 699 runs, Edwards ranks among that group sixth in yards per carry (4.9 YPC), 12th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (11.6%), and first in the lowest rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (11.4%).

Edwards has also converted 74.0% of his short-yardage runs (needing 1-3 yards) over his career, first in the league.

Edwards is coming off a career season with the Ravens.

Boosted by another injury to J.K. Dobbins early in the season, Edwards set career highs in touches (210), total yards (990), and touchdowns (13).

Now, Edwards will be 29 years old this April and has been used as a compartmentalized back for the majority of his career, including conceding passing downs to Justice Hill a year ago.

Edwards has cleared 153 touches just once over his five seasons with a max of 210 coming last season.

He has never played 70% of the offensive snaps in any career game and has hit 60% of the snaps in just five of his 76 career games played.

Ezekiel Elliott meant so much to the Cowboys that they now have two different contracts of his on the books for the 2024 season.

Elliott took a year away from the Cowboys, averaging only 4.1 yards per touch with the Patriots.

He has rushed for more than 4.0 yards per carry just once over his past three years in the league.

We should anticipate Rico Dowdle playing a larger role in the offense in 2024, but the Dallas depth chart is thin while Elliott should be the best bet to receive goal-line looks for one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, which now has a worse defense.

Elliott had 16 rushes inside of the 5-yard line with Dallas back in 2022, which was third in the NFL. Tony Pollard had 13 such rushes a year ago, which was eighth in the league.

Tier 13 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Tyler Allgeier (Age: 24.4)
• Antonio Gibson (26.2)
• Chuba Hubbard (25.1)
• Khalil Herbert (26.4)
• J.K. Dobbins (25.7)
• Dameon Pierce (24.5)
• Jerome Ford (25.0)
• Elijah Mitchell (26.3)
• Rico Dowdle (26.2)
• Miles Sanders (27.3)

We are deep into handcuff territory at this point.

All of these running backs have shown just enough on their own to be noteworthy names as reserves.

Chuba Hubbard, Khalil Herbert, Elijah Mitchell, and Rico Dowdle will be unrestricted free agents after this season if looking for an angle to play for them gaining value in a new environment.

Dowdle should at least compete touches this season while Hubbard should open the season as the lead back in Carolina until Jonathon Brooks is ready to take on a larger workload returning from ACL surgery.

Tier 14 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Israel Abanikanda (Age: 21.9)
• Audric Estime (21.0)
• Dylan Laube (24.7)
• Isaac Guerendo (24.2)
• Tank Bigsby (23.0)
• Will Shipley (22.1)
• Braelon Allen (20.6)
• Bucky Irving (22.0)
• Rasheen Ali (23.5)
• Chris Rodriguez Jr. (24.9)
• Deuce Vaughn (22.8)
• Isaiah Davis (22.8)

These are our younger dart throws at the position, largely made up of running backs in their first or second season in the NFL.

I wrote up all of the rookies before the draft and have Audric Estime as someone to keep an eye on with Javonte Williams set to become a free agent and Jaleel McLaughlin profiling as a satellite back.

Tier 15 Running Backs, Dynasty Fantasy Football:

• Michael Carter (Age: 25.3)
• Kenneth Gainwell (25.5)
• Alexander Mattison (26.2)
• Justice Hill (26.2)
• Ty Chandler (26.3)
• AJ Dillon (26.3)
• Jamaal Williams (29.4)
• Samaje Perine (29.0)
• Chase Edmonds (28.4)
• D’Onta Foreman (28.4)
• Jeff Wilson (28.8)

Wrapping things up, these are the veteran backups who need an opening for larger work but are solid bets to hang around rosters beyond 2024, even in new offenses.