2025 QB Fantasy Football Draft Strategy (Targets & Sleepers)

Everything this offseason has built up to this point.

With the 2025 Draft Kit in place as a North Star in how to play the game of fantasy football, I also know some of you are here because you want to know how I am playing drafts out myself this summer.

You want the answers to the test.

That is what this week is all about.

This is how I am approaching fantasy football drafts in 2025, starting with the quarterback position.

I will also update this throughout the remaining time in the offseason if we get any significant news that impacts draft approaches.

Even those with the draft kit may not have read every word written this offseason, but I am operating under the assumption you have at minimum checked out the player rankings page.

If you read only one thing, I would push you to the individual player writeups in the positional tiers posts if you haven't already.

With that in mind, these pieces will not be overly statistically centric and fully into the weeds on the pros or cons of each player, instead focusing on the approach to drafting the positions.

If you want further analysis on each player, check out those tiers, but here are some links to quarterback-related content that has influenced our decision making.

Quarterback Fantasy Related Articles:

• Quarterback Tiers
• Quarterback Rankings
• Quarterback Production Heading Into 2025
• Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Quarterback
• What We Can Learn From ADP: Quarterback
• Stats That Matter: Quarterback

2025 QB Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Before we get into the specific targets, I do want to lay down some groundwork on how we arrived here.

This season is unique in that we have a top tier of four quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels) who check the boxes we are looking for when it comes to spending premier at the position.

These players offer the combination of high floors and ceilings through rushing and passing output.

I rarely spend front-end capital on quarterbacks, but when I do, I spend it on players who are actual dual assets on the ground and through the air.

Everyone else has come around on that over the past several seasons as well.

I say rarely, because this season has some nuance when it comes to those top quarterbacks.

We do not have a deep player pool of those dual-threat picks, and we do not have a lot of arbitrage situations for that archetype as we progress through the position.

Last season, Daniels was our top target because he blended what we look for in a fantasy quarterback paired with a price we could draft ahead of ADP and still wait at the position in total.

This year, that archetype is thin.

Kyler Murray is still hanging around the back-end QB1 picks but has yet to get over that hump for fantasy.

I still believe he is the best of the dual-threat options and is still in play for a pick, but he is not someone to outright prioritize, either.

Justin Fields is an old-school Konami fantasy player who has a floor in place through rushing output, but still comes with a questionable passing floor and questionable upside to completely threaten the top of the position consistently.

After those two guys, we get a lot of players who are not zeroes in the running game but are also not players I would categorize as consistent runners, either.

Because we do not have many arbitrage options for the dual threat options that occupy the opening tier, it gives the top options added appeal.

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The other element to factor in with that top tier is where they are going amongst the different positions.

You know your league better than I do.

ADP can only be a guideline, but we all know that it is not a hard rule.

A player can come off the board at any time.

If you know inherently that your league will wait on quarterbacks or that your league drafts them early, then use that to calibrate your game plan.

For the sake of answering where the breaking point would be…“Well, when would you finally cave in and be the first gamer in your league to select a quarterback?”

The most realistic outcome in which I would consider being the first gamer to pick a quarterback in my league would be in a spot where the running back and wide receiver positions have thinned out and leveled off.

Using general ADP and the hundreds of drafts I have done this summer, the top tier of quarterbacks almost always bumps against the WR2 and RB2 picks at those positions.

You are just outright adding more points to your roster with those front-end quarterbacks, and they bust at a lower rate than those tiers at the other positions.

Paired with the limited arbitrage options, I do want to push those top quarterbacks over the majority of those tiers in managed leagues.

Excluding nuance involving the number of FLEX spots, league scoring, and knowing how aggressive your room will be with the top quarterbacks, it is hard to justify using a third-round pick on someone such as Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr, Breece Hall, or Davante Adams as examples over these top quarterbacks if those decisions present themselves.

We are looking ahead at other positions, but the fifth and sixth rounds are stocked with wide receivers and running backs who I am happy to roster compared to the players who typically go in the third round of drafts at those positions.

Factor in your league’s scoring and number of FLEX spots into your decisions, but I start to consider drafting one of the top four quarterbacks once we clear Jaxon Smith-Njigba at wide receiver (in full PPR formats) and Tee Higgins (non-PPR).

At running back, that firewall for me is Chase Brown (in full-PPR) and then Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor (non-PPR).

If we are at those two spots in rankings at each position, then I will consider a top quarterback in the third round.

Ideally, the plan is to get the fourth guy in that tier, but I would not push back on adding Josh Allen if that lines up.

Getting the last guy in the tier has been a solid plan for me this season, because I am also fully on board with Jalen Hurts as my prime target.

With Hurts, you never have to be the first gamer in your league to pick a quarterback (which leaves you at the mercy of when QB2 comes off the board).

Hurts also usually goes after Daniels (I have Hurts higher) and sometimes will go after Joe Burrow.

In a perfect world of drafting this summer, getting Jalen Hurts in Round 4 or later has been my favorite way to play the position.

I do not have Burrow in this tier.

I would love to roster Burrow below his current draft cost, but that just rarely happens.

The case for Burrow is easy to make since the Bengals look to have a similar layout to last season.

The defense still looks suspect, and the offensive line lacks potent run blockers.

They should have to pass the ball at the league’s highest rate (or close enough) again this season.

That said, we have been here with these passing-reliant fantasy options before.

Burrow still has not only a wider margin for error since he has to post elite totals in passing yardage and touchdowns, but that also makes him more vulnerable to arbitrage.

Even with Burrow running pure last season in overall volume and touchdown production attached, Baker Mayfield (98.1%), Jared Goff (86.8%), Bo Nix (84.8%), Sam Darnold (82.6%), Brock Purdy (81.1%), and Patrick Mahomes (80.4%) all produced at least 80% of the points per game that Burrow did.

This year, we have a wide net of players in that archetype of passers.

That brings me to my next point.

If you do not push for a front-end quarterback and miss out on that tier, you should sit on your hands at the position for nearly the rest of the way out.

I believe you can make a strong case that QB5-QB20 in ranks is one large tier without a ton of separation.

We know it will not play out that way.

Still, with a lack of the dual-threat archetypes we look for, I do not see a reason to push for someone such as Mayfield or Nix (the quarterbacks typically taken after Burrow and Mahomes) as QB7 as opposed to just waiting for another player in the same tier at a lower cost.

I have brought up a few reasons why I do not like Mayfield or Nix at cost in relation to other players.

Still, the real reason not to take those players to roster fill is that this tier of passers is deep, and you should still be taking other skill positions at the price those players cost.

We are seeing QB7 and QB8 in drafts getting selected around WR32, RB28, and TE8.

If you do like Mayfield and Nix and can land them beyond those price points, then that is more than acceptable, but keep hammering those other spots and wait on the quarterback.

This is an excellent season for an extreme late-round quarterback approach if you do not get a Tier 1 quarterback.

When I am at that point and waiting on quarterbacks, the first player I am monitoring is Drake Maye.

Maye is someone who you may have to jump a few gamers for since he is popular and has gotten buzz all summer.

If I do miss out on Maye, the other players I am targeting to open the season with are:

• Kyler Murray, if he falls after Maye: I get it. Murray has not made a jump for fantasy, but he still comes with the best bet to make in terms of rushing plus passing at this stage of drafts, plus Arizona opens the year with the Saints and Panthers.
• Brock Purdy: We have talked about the San Francisco schedule and Purdy all summer.
• Dak Prescott: potential for the Cowboys to look similar to last season’s Bengals. The secondary looks rough on paper to open the year, the run game is a question mark, and Dallas faces a host of opponents capable of scoring points late in the season.

So to keep this tight, we are building around a game plan of landing Hurts in Round 4-5, then targeting Maye, Murray (if he goes after Maye), Purdy, and Prescott.

That staggers out a full-fledged plan of attack.

Other names to consider, just in case things do not break that way, are:

• Justin Fields: Rushing floor, but I do prefer landing both Purdy and Prescott over him, which is not often the case in drafts.
• Jordan Love: Operated as a QB1 with upside in every healthy game last season and is being pushed down too far due to injuries.
• C.J. Stroud: Could be set up to pass more due to the running back roster and scheme change. Houston plays the Rams, Bucs, Jaguars, and Titans to open the season.
• Bryce Young: Closed last season in the QB1 mix due to a rushing spike. Added a front-end wide receiver in the draft. Opens the season with games against the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Falcons.

That should be enough to get you out of your drafts with a solid plan in place.

If you do have to go lower than that list of names, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix are my favorite “break glass” options.

The infrastructure of Kevin O’Connell’s offense and attachment to Justin Jefferson are strong pros to make for McCarthy.

I could see a runout where he is Purdy-esque in terms of efficiency.

Penix should have to throw the ball a lot this season.

We saw Atlanta play in heavy shootouts in two of Penix’s three starts last season.

They open the season up with a slate of capable offenses, facing the Bucs, Vikings, Panthers, Commanders, Bills, 49ers, Dolphins, and Patriots over their opening eight games.

Caleb Williams and Cam Ward also have added appeal at their average cost.

2025 Fantasy Football Superflex Strategy

1QB leagues still make up the most fantasy leagues, but 2QB and Superflex continue to expand.

Kicking things off in those formats, you want to be hyper-aggressive in 2QB formats at the top.

If you can land any passer in the opening tier, do it.

I want to begin my 2QB drafts off with a pair of QB1 options, but if you are picking at the front of drafts, that is unlikely to happen since that tier of passers will almost always be picked clean approaching the back half of the second round.

Picking at the front of 2QB drafts feels like cheating this season.

In 1QB leagues, this is as good as I remember the top 24 being before we even get to the quarterbacks.

In 2QB formats, that pushes a strong group of players into the third round.

If you are picking at the front of these leagues, you can often start drafts with a Tier 1 QB and still land players with RB1 and WR1 price points with your next two picks.

Those Tier 1 quarterbacks are better options at cost versus elevating the back-end QB1 pocket passers.

The same principles still apply in the position we previously discussed, but the overall necessity to get players at the position is heightened.

The most common mistake I see gamers make in 2QB formats is elevating the passing-reliant tier of quarterbacks, who carry high bust rates compared to elite skill position players who get pushed down by gamers having a legitimate arms race at the quarterback position.

In 2QB formats, you do not want to be the gamer elevating that group over RB1 and WR1 options, who are typically first-rounders in 1QB formats, just because you feel like you have to force a quarterback.

You always have the potential to arbitrage a pedestrian season from a pocket passer.

You are going to have a hard time combating the Tier 1 QB drafters if you are chasing their builds.

Those gamers already have an edge on you, so you need to find a counter.

That is by stacking up the position players at running back and wide receiver.

If you are drafting in the back half of the first round in 2QB leagues, you can do that this season.

We are stacked at early running back and wide receiver this season, more so than in previous seasons.

If you are picking in the back half of 2QB formats, you are better off grabbing two front-end picks at running back and wide receiver, then coming back and mixing in quarterbacks as the draft progresses using the targets we laid out above.

One thing to keep in mind in these leagues is that quarterbacks are currency.

Players such as Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, and even Aaron Rodgers have value in platoons, adding points to your roster and holding trade value.

Keep those players in mind when backup running backs and receivers are coming off the board.

2025 Fantasy Football Auction Strategy: QB

Not a lot changes here, as many of the same core principles above translate over to my auction approach.

However, in auctions, I am far less risk-averse than in snake drafts.

I am a more cautious drafter in the early rounds of serpentine drafts.

I know I am going to get a lot of binary player choices wrong, so I want to spend my top picks not only on the players that I have the most confidence in, but I also want to factor in opportunity cost more in those formats, which limits how aggressively I play the quarterback position.

In snake drafts, I inherently know that I am going to need extra bodies at wide receiver and running back, so I prefer to use my higher-end draft capital at those positions to ensure I have as many swings as possible at those positions when they offer the most enormous bang for my investment.

In auctions, we are removing some of the opportunity costs.

We are still spending equal round value to acquire a front-end quarterback, but now we are not completely freezing ourselves out of players that have similar draft costs.

In auctions, I will not force a quarterback, unlike my approach in snake drafts.

But I do want to hang around on the pricing of those Tier 1 quarterbacks in an attempt to land some value compared to the equivalent of their snake draft cost.

That also allows operating under the agency, so if I do want to pay up for an elite quarterback while still attempting to land high-caliber running backs or wide receivers of similar costs, I have the option to do so.

2025 QB Keeper Targets

Given the nature of the position, we will be the lightest here on potential keeper targets outside of 2QB formats.

You are not going to run into a lot of potential keepers in 1QB leagues.

However, the depth of the position this season does offer some potential hits for 2QB formats.

I want to prioritize Drake Maye in those leagues.

Key Takeaways

• Enter your league anticipating that you will not be the first team in your league to select a quarterback, but consider Josh Allen if you have reached the area where Jaxon Smith-Njigba at wide receiver (in full PPR formats) and Tee Higgins (non-PPR) are picked.
• At running back, that firewall for me is Chase Brown (in full-PPR) and then Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor (non-PPR).
• Monitor QB ADP without forcing things. The ideal start would be landing one of the Tier 1 quarterbacks in the fourth round, but all are in play in the third round after where Allen’s suggested price is.
• My favorite target among those players is Jalen Hurts in Round 4 or later.
• If you miss out on a Tier 1 QB, wait.
• Wait longer.
• Be cautious about paying a premium for pocket passers that require QB1 draft capital.
• Do not force this tier based on positional need. Make them luxury picks.
• Monitor the cost of Drake Maye. He is my top target if you can land him in double-digit rounds.
• If Maye goes earlier, then target Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and Justin Fields.
• If by happenstance you have to wait later than that or in 2QB formats, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Bryce Young are my next targets.
• If playing the actual late game, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix are my favorite dart throws.
• If your league has six-point passing touchdowns, the run-first quarterbacks have lower floors but still carry massive ceilings. Balance out both accordingly with the pocket passers.
• Grab a Tier 1 QB as soon as possible in 2QB leagues.
• The same principles apply in 2QB formats. Be wary of the pocket passers who are expensive. Do not force one of these guys over an elite RB1 or WR1 who get pushed to the opening round turn in drafts and are picking late.
• In 2QB leagues, back-end players such as Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, and Aaron Rodgers add points to rosters and are the best form of cheap trade currency.
• In auction formats, apply similar principles, but you can be more aggressive on the front of the position due to reduced opportunity cost.