- Last season, the required yardage for touchdowns dropped significantly compared to the 2022 and 2023 seasons, marking the third-lowest mark in our 15-year sample.
- Since 2010, 66.2% of the teams that scored fewer touchdowns than their expected total based on yardage gained per league rates came back the following season and scored more offensive touchdowns.
- 74.7% of the teams that outproduced their expected touchdown total based on yardage gained returned to the following season and scored fewer touchdowns, with an average loss of 10.0 touchdowns per season among those teams.
As we approach July and head further downhill towards the 2025 fantasy season, we will extend our top down approach by analyzing team performance and output.
The goal is to have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth by late August, from a team, player, position, and game theory standpoint, to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for the upcoming season.
| 2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends |
| Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Red Zone Trends |
| Red Zone points over expected: Quarterbacks (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Running Backs (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon) |
Today, we are examining how effective teams were at converting yardage into touchdowns.
League Offensive Yardage Into Touchdown Conversion Since 2010
| Year | Yd/TD | R^2/Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 139.1 | 0.7273 |
| 2023 | 147.4 | 0.8888 |
| 2022 | 149.0 | 0.7249 |
| 2021 | 139.0 | 0.7675 |
| 2020 | 131.0 | 0.6903 |
| 2019 | 143.2 | 0.7148 |
| 2018 | 140.2 | 0.6942 |
| 2017 | 152.6 | 0.5598 |
| 2016 | 146.0 | 0.6960 |
| 2015 | 149.6 | 0.4296 |
| 2014 | 150.2 | 0.7820 |
| 2013 | 147.0 | 0.6947 |
| 2012 | 153.6 | 0.7027 |
| 2011 | 155.2 | 0.7973 |
| 2010 | 149.6 | 0.7624 |
There is no secret to the idea that if a team gains a lot of yards, they will then be in a position to score more touchdowns.
Last season, the required yardage for touchdowns dropped significantly compared to the 2022 and 2023 seasons, marking the third-lowest mark in our 15-year sample.
Yardage and touchdown production had significantly increased in correlation.
That decrease was compared to 2023, but since 2021, those four seasons have consistently been in the top half in terms of having the best correlation with scoring touchdowns.
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