NFL Red Zone Stats Vs. Expectation: Quarterbacks

As we approach August and head further downhill towards the 2025 fantasy season, we will extend our top down approach by analyzing team performance and output.

The goal is to have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth by late August, from a team, player, position, and game theory standpoint, to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for the upcoming season.

In our examination of league and team performance in the red zone last season, we covered not only how the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL comes from inside the red zone, but also that not all red zone touches are created equal.

We also showcased in that post how NFL offenses have become more dependent on red zone production as part of their scoring output.

The discovery of true regression candidates in this area of the field could prove pivotal, given the rising need for offenses to succeed in the red zone.

To reiterate some notes from that article that relate to passing production near the end zone, since 2010:

• 67.0% of all passing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2024, that rate was 69.9%.
• 43.7% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 45.6%.
• 22.6% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside the five-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 22.8%.
• 74.0% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 74.9%.
• 57.4% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the five-yard line. In 2024, that rate was 57.5%.

With that, the next step is to dive into the red zone production versus expectations for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and where they came from in the red zone.

We are starting things off with the quarterbacks.

Highlighting the top options in the current ADP, excluding rookies and J.J. McCarthy.

2024 QB Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation

Lamar Jackson Red Zone Scoring

Lamar Jackson broke the system last year, scoring a gaudy 89.9 more fantasy points in the red zone than baseline expectations based on down and distance.

He led all players in red zone scoring despite ranking 15th in expected points at his position.

Jackson threw 32 red zone touchdowns, 8 more than his previous career high.

50% of his red zone passes resulted in a touchdown, the highest rate of the 2000s.

The base rate over that span is 24%.

61.4% (27 of 44) of his throws into the end zone resulted in a touchdown, the second-highest rate of the 2000s.

The league rate on those throws was 38.2%.

For added context, here is how Jackson has done on his throws into the end zone for his career.

Lamar Jackson Career End Zone Pass Attempts

Even crazier, Jackson received no added benefit from his rushing output since Derrick Henry soaked up all of the money touches near the end zone on the ground.

Jackson only had 13.7 expected red zone rushing points last year, the fewest of his career.

That ranked ninth among quarterbacks last season, and he was ninth at the position in actual rushing points scored in the red zone (25.3).

Jackson did not have a rushing attempt inside of the five-yard line and had just one of 29 team runs from the seven-yard line or closer.

Henry had 27.

Jackson is someone who has been a strong fantasy performer even when he has not relied on the red zone to the degree of last season, so we do not have to abandon ship by any means, but last season was a near-flawless runout for him for fantasy, something we should anticipate coming back to the pack.

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Josh Allen Red Zone Scoring

Even with all of those points scored over expectations by Jackson last season, he was still edged out in overall fantasy points from the red zone by Josh Allen.

No player has had as large a fantasy presence in the red zone through the apex of Allen’s career.

Allen has consistently overperformed in the red zone, finishing as a top-five scorer in that area of the field in six straight seasons.

Not only that, but he has led the league in red zone fantasy points three times over the past four seasons and has not finished lower than second in that department in each of the past five years.

While he has steadily produced more points in the red zone than expected, he has also ranked in the top five in expected points in five straight seasons.

Even if he does end up falling short of running as hot as previous seasons, he still is expected to be among the leaders in opportunities in that area of the field.

Buffalo has adopted their version of the “Tush Push,” which has ramped up Allen’s touchdown production on the ground.

He already had six or more rushing scores in each of his first five seasons in the league, but that has spiked to 27 rushing touchdowns over the past two years thanks to 11 one-yard rushing touchdowns, which is second in the NFL over the past two seasons.

In 2024, Allen produced 40.6 fantasy points from the one-yard line, tied for the third-most by a quarterback in the 2000s.

Jalen Hurts Red Zone Scoring

The quarterback Allen was chasing for short-yardage fantasy scoring is, of course, Jalen Hurts.

Despite missing two complete games and playing a career-low snap count as a starting quarterback in the NFL, Hurts was second among all quarterbacks in expected points in the red zone last season.

Hurts was third among all players in red zone rushing expectations (79.9 points), trailing only Kyren Williams (80.2) and Josh Jacobs (80.4) despite ranking 10th in red zone rushing attempts.

That is the impact of the Tush Push.

Hurts led the NFL with 15 rushing attempts from the one-yard line.

In the 2000s, here are the top five fantasy seasons on plays only from the one-yard line:

• Jalen Hurts 2024 (71.1)
• LeGarrette Blount 2016 (67.0)
• Jalen Hurts 2023 (65.1)
• Marshall Faulk 2000 (61.0)
• Shaun Alexander 2005 (60.5)

The next closest quarterback seasons from that period are 2011's Cam Newton and last year's Allen (40.6 points).

Jayden Daniels Red Zone Scoring

Jayden Daniels was third behind Hurts and Allen in expected points via rushing in the red zone last season (46.0), with a sizable gap to the fourth quarterback, who was Anthony Richardson (26.4).

These running quarterbacks have more insulation in the red zone, as rushing production is weighted more heavily for fantasy purposes than passing.

This makes the last three quarterbacks mentioned (Allen, Hurts, and Daniels) particularly interesting compared to Jackson, whose rushing opportunities near the end zone were impacted by the addition of Henry.

Baker Mayfield Red Zone Scoring

Getting to the quarterbacks who were more reliant on overperforming through passing output, it is not a surprise to see Baker Mayfield here, given how much we have covered from his career season a year ago.

Mayfield was third in fantasy points scored over expectations in the red zone last season, finishing third in points scored compared to eighth in expected points.

He finished second in the league last year in passing touchdowns over expectations (12.2).

He completed a league-high 73.1% of his red zone throws (the league rate was 57.9%).

37.2% of Mayfield’s red zone passes were touchdowns, which was second in the league last year to Jackson.

That was also the highest rate of Mayfield’s career, who had a 26.3% career rate entering last season.

Bo Nix Red Zone Scoring

Bo Nix ranked fourth in points scored over expectations, coming in at 10th in expected points.

32.4% of Nix’s red zone passes resulted in scores, fourth in the league (the league rate was 25.7%).

20% of Nix’s red zone throws that did not go into the end zone were touchdowns (fourth), compared to the league rate of 13.1%.

The crazy part about that is that 20.6% of Nix’s red zone throws were off target, which ranked 32nd in the league.

Nix has mobility, but that did not have a heavy impact on his overperformance in the red zone.

He was eighth in red zone rushing points (27.0) and seventh in expected rushing points (20.2).

With an improved backfield and expected regression in passing touchdown efficiency, this is another area where Nix pops up as a potential risk at his QB9 ADP.

Bryce Young Red Zone Scoring

One player who was elevated through rushing output was Bryce Young.

Young scored 33.7 points on the ground (7th) while ranking 12th in expected points (11.3).

He had 3.6 more rushing touchdowns than expected, the second-most among quarterbacks.

3 of his 6 rushing touchdowns came from 10 or more yards out, while only two were inside the five-yard line.

Young has a larger runway to play a full season and potentially increase his passing output, but his rushing performance (especially in terms of touchdowns) appears to be an outlier.

2025 Positive Regression Candidates: Quarterbacks

After walking through some of the players who were at the top of points over expectations, let’s go through a few at the bottom, since that group is littered with intriguing names that could rebound.

It was extremely minor, so we do not have to spend a lot of time on Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes.

Burrow (first) and Mahomes (fourth) were each top five in expected points scored and the only players in the top 10 in expected points who scored fewer points than expected.

That is the most encouraging sign for those players holding their own “mini-tier” in fantasy drafts.

Especially for Burrow, who is expected to have top down regression after leading the NFL in completions (460), attempts (652), and passing touchdowns (43).

Burrow was slightly below the red zone touchdown rate (24.6%) and touchdown rate on red zone throws into the end zone (39.3%), finishing 15th and 19th in those rates a year ago.

Burrow can trade some overall volume and raise his success rates to offset some of the top down regression.

The Bengals had a 65.7% dropback rate in the red zone last season (second).

Mahomes had a career-low 22.2% of his red zone passes result in touchdowns (25th).

I do want to touch on a few other players who fell short of expectations last season.

Assuming that everything ends up checking out with Matthew Stafford’s back ailment this summer, we can expect a rebound.

Stafford completed only 46.5% of his red zone passes, which was 32nd in the league.

That was below Caleb Williams (50%).

Stafford was 24th in red zone touchdown rate (22.5%) due to running extremely cold on his throws into the end zone.

Only 27.8% of Stafford’s red zone passes into the end zone were touchdowns.

That ranked 35th, ahead of only Gardner Minshew (25%).

The league rate was 41.1% and below the 36.4% career rate for Stafford.

This is the largest area where Davante Adams can aid Stafford.

This is another area where Caleb Williams struggled as a rookie.

He finished 20th in red zone scoring, and only Daniel Jones scored fewer points compared to expectations last season.

Only 18.1% of his red zone throws were touchdowns, ahead of only Gardner Minshew (17.1%).

A lot of faith is being placed in Ben Johnson turning things around for Williams.

What will be interesting is if we see Johnson utilize Williams’ ability to move near the end zone, something he did in college.

As a rookie, Williams was only 20th in expected rushing points in the red zone (8.9).

Williams rushed for 27 touchdowns in college.

He led last year’s draft class with seven of his 11 rushing touchdowns in 2023 coming inside of the five-yard line.

Geno Smith had the most passing touchdowns below expectations last season (-6.6) in a large part due to continued issues in the red zone.

Over the past four seasons, Smith has completed only 49.3% of his passes in the red zone (36th).

34% of his throws into the end zone have been completed (27th), short of the 36.3% league rate.

Smith and Daniel Jones are in new environments this season to potentially change their poor fortune.

The same can be said for Aaron Rodgers, but his environment could pull down the volume, necessitating that efficiency to rebound.

The Jets had the highest dropback rate in the red zone last season (74.8%).

Arthur Smith’s teams have had a 50.3% dropback in the red zone over his tenure in the league.