Ravens vs Dolphins: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

• Baltimore is 8-3 against the spread in Week 1 since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008, tied with the Eagles for the league’s best mark over that span. 
• The Ravens forced opponents to punt the ball on 50.3 percent of their possessions in 2018, the highest rate in the league.
• The Dolphins forced opponents to punt on 31.2 percent of their drives, 31st in the league.
• The Ravens ran 14 more offensive plays per game than their opponents in the seven games Lamar Jackson started, the largest margin in the league over that span.
• With Jackson under center, the Ravens went from 27th in yards per play (5.2) up to 19th (5.5) and up to 15th in points per play (.36) from 22nd (.33). 
• Over that span, Jackson tallied 119 rushing attempts, which ranked sixth in the entire NFL and outpaced the next-closest quarterback by 65 rushing attempts. 
• The Ravens backfield averaged 30 touches for 168.1 yards from scrimmage per game over that span, the highest rates in the league.
• Miami ran just 77 offensive plays in the red zone in 2018, the fewest by a team since the 2005 season.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Lamar Jackson: His lowest-scoring game as a starter was 15.7 fantasy points and he finished as a top-12 scorer in four of his final five starts. Miami ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks in 2018. With his legs, Jackson can be a starter for fantasy without any his pass catchers being starting-caliber.
• Mark Ingram: Set to be the lead option of the league’s best rushing attack once Jackson was under center a year ago. Miami ranked 29th in yards from scrimmage allowed to opposing backfields in 2018 (163.3 yards per game) and ranked 31st in rushing fantasy points allowed to backs (17.1 points per game). Even Gus Edwards and Justice Hill may get a piece here.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• All Dolphins: Miami has the lowest team total on the slate, something that is surely going to be common ground throughout the season. There will be weeks to make a play on Kalen Ballage, Kenyan Drake, and some facets from this passing offense, but this matchup is not enticing on any level. The Ravens regularly go harder than most teams in the preseason — they’ve won 17 straight preseason games — and it’s carried over into the early season as they’ve allowed just 10 total points over their past three season openers. Ryan Fitzpatrick was pressured on 45.9% of his dropbacks this preseason, which was the third-highest rate in the league. Miami then dealt starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil right before the season. Baltimore ranked second in points allowed to running backs (18.4) and seventh in points allowed to wide receivers (30.5) per game. Their weakest area was 21st in the league to tight ends, but Mike Gesicki requires a larger leap of faith than most streaming tight ends in Week 1.
• Ravens WRs: One of these guys may find the end zone, but figuring out who it will be is a complete guess. Jackson targeted Willie Snead — the favorite for targets here — 16.9 percent of the time last season, but Snead never had more than 61 yards in any game last season. Miami was also a functional pass defense to a degree for fantasy since everyone just ran the ball on them, ranking 11th in points allowed to opposing wideouts in 2018.
• Ravens TEs: Another quagmire, the run-blocking Nick Boyle played on 31 of the 38 snaps with Jackson under center this preseason while Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst each played 18. Andrews is the best fantasy bet and has the most upside of the group, but is a volatile option who caught two or fewer passes in five of those seven regular season starts made by Jackson while posting more than three catches just once.