Steelers vs Patriots: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Sunday night game on September 6, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.

 

  • The past four regular-season meetings between these teams have gone under the game total, with an average of 42.5 combined points scored in those games. 
  • 65.9 percent of the New England offensive touchdowns in 2018 were scored at home, the highest rate in the league.
  • Tom Brady has played 28 regular season games without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup since he entered the league in 2010. In those games, Brady’s yards per attempt (8.0 to 6.9), touchdown rate (6.0 to 4.6 percent), and passing yards per game (289.1 to 260.1 yards) all drop. 
  • In his five starts without Gronk the past two seasons, Brady has been the QB22, QB16, QB5, QB23, and QB17. 
  • Ben Roethlisberger has played just three games without Antonio Brown since the 2012 season, but Roethlisberger averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt and 13.2 fantasy points per game in those starts. 
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has played three games with Brown inactive over his first two seasons and averaged 27.5 percent of the team targets in those games while positing individual lines of 6-86-1, 9-143-1 and 5-50-1. 

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Julian Edelman: Edelman is the most-trusted pass catcher in the offense and the Steelers are a defense that has been more accessible on the interior and over the middle of the field through the passing game.That’s held true for Edelman and the Patriots as well. In his past four games against the Steelers, Edelman has put up lines of 7-90, 8-118-1, 9-60, and 11-97.
  • James Conner: He was second in the league in touches per game (23.6) prior to picking up injuries late last season. The Steelers ran for 158 yards and 6.3 yards per carry in this matchup a year ago to offer some upside even if the game goes under the game total for a fifth consecutive time. 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster: He led all pass catchers in expected red zone points (65) in 2018 and that was with Antonio Brown on the field. We know the Patriots love to take away the opponent’s primary offensive option, so Smith-Schuster will be put to the test right away against both Jason McCourty and Stephon Gilmore as he’s expected to play primarily as a boundary receiver this season. This preseason, Smith-Schuster ran just three of his 20 pass routes from the slot after running 61.5 percent and 58 percent from the slot over his first two seasons in the league.
  • Vance McDonald: McDonald had career-highs in targets (72), receptions (50), yards (610), and catch rate (69.4 percent) in 2018 while he’s set up for opportunity growth in the offense with the departures of Brown and Jesse James. McDonald caught a touchdown pass in this matchup a year ago on just 23 snaps played, a number he should blow past here. The Patriots were middle of the pack against tight ends for fantasy, ranked 17th in points allowed. 
  • James White: We typically like to target White based on opponent and how we feel about the New England running game. Even as home favorites, the Steelers can hang with the Patriots and New England has offensive line concerns entering Week 1. White had a modest game when these teams played a year ago as the RB37, but New England targeted their backs 12 times in that game. White has floor FLEX appeal.
  • Sony Michel: The Steelers have been a defense that has been solid versus power rushing teams and have held the Patriots to 96 and 79 yards collectively on the ground in the past two meetings. Michel’s floor can be scary as 92.8 percent of his fantasy output stemmed from rushing, but he’s the lead rusher attached to a home favorite that still carries enough scoring upside to warrant RB2 consideration.
  • Josh Gordon: Gordon was a WR3 or better in seven of his 11 games with the Patriots a year ago, but managed just one catch for 19 yards in this matchup last year on 58 snaps. That was his final game played, so who knows where his head was at that time. Gordon enters Week 1 as a WR3 with upside, but we still have questions on his snap count and involvement out of the box. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Tom Brady: This is as tenuous Brady has entered a season for fantasy. He was a top-12 scorer in just six games while finishing in the back-half of scoring nine times. Gordon’s presence mitigates some of the loss of Gronk, who was a shell of himself a year ago, to begin with. But I have doubts on the Patriots reaching their team total here and Brady has been the QB14 and QB19 the past two times these teams played. The Patriots offensive line has a ton of moving parts as the season kicks off while the Steelers ranked third in sack rate a year ago.
  • Ben Roethlisberger: His sample-size without Brown in the lineup is small, but there’s a question mark now; if teams can limit Smith-Schuster, who on this offense can make plays for Roethlisberger? The Patriots have one of the league’s better secondaries, so we may see that put to the test right away. Roethlisberger has been usable as the QB15 and QB13 over his past two meetings with the Patriots in the regular season and has similar high-to-mid QB2 expectations here.
  • Donte Moncrief: Playing opposite Smith-Schuster can create opportunities, but there’s a question here on how the Patriots will approach things defensively. If they decide to play the Steelers straight up, Moncrief will face Gilmore the most often of the Steeler wideouts. He enters Week 1 as a WR4.
More Week 1 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet :
GB at CHI | KC at JAX | ATL at MIN | TEN at CLE | BUF at NYJ | BAL at MIA | WAS at PHI | LAR at CAR | IND at LAC | CIN at SEA | SF at TB | DET at ARI | NYG at DAL | PIT at NE | HOU at NO |

 

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