Titans vs Browns: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 1 pm ET.

 

• Since the Browns returned to the NFL in 1999, they are 1-18-1 in season-opening games with that lone victory in 2004. Every other franchise has at least six Week 1 wins over that span.
• The Browns led the NFL with 6.8 yards per play in their eight games under Freddie Kitchens in 2018 after ranking 29th in the league at 4.9 yards per play prior.
• Nick Chubb ranked sixth in touches (19.6 per game) and fifth in yards from scrimmage (97.2) per game once taking over the starting running back in Week 7 last season.
• Odell Beckham’s 20.6 PPR points per game are the most any wide receiver has averaged per game prior to turning 27 years of age. 
• 90.5 percent of all the passing touchdowns allowed by the Titans in 2018 were scored by opposing wide receivers, the highest rate in the league. League average outside of them was 62.4 percent.
• Derrick Henry averaged just 7.3 fantasy points per game in Tennessee losses in 2018 and 16.9 points per game in wins. He scored one rushing touchdown in those losses compared to 11 in those wins.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Odell Beckham: There’s out-of-the-box statement potential here for Beckham in his first game in Cleveland, facing off against a secondary that ranked 24th in receiving yardage allowed (76.1 yards per game) to opposing WR1 options while ranking 25th in touchdown receptions allowed to lead wideouts. Beckham has been dealing with a hip injury that he said hasn’t allowed him to “open up” yet, but is practicing in full and not on any injury reports. 
• Nick Chubb: Chubb posted 21.1 fantasy points per game over his five games as starter in which the Browns won, opposed to 11.9 per game in losses. With only Dontrell Hilliard behind him, we could also see a receiving spike early in the season.
• Baker Mayfield: Mayfield completed 68.4% of his passes while ranking ninth in the NFL in passing yards (2,254) and fourth in touchdown passes (20) under Kitchens. Tennessee ranked sixth in passing points allowed in 2018, but only faced six top-12 scorers on the season. In those games, they allowed five QB1 scoring weeks and multiple passing touchdowns to all six.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Jarvis Landry: In the eight games played after Kitchens took over the offense, Landry dropped to 6.9 targets per game (a 20.6 percent team share of the targets) from 11.7 targets per game (and a 30.3 percent team share) prior. With Beckham’s addition, Landry’s weekly ceiling comes into question, but Landry is on the radar as a WR3 option with the Browns in a favorable spot.
• Adam Humphries: He still is only a WR4 option, but holds the most water compared to preseason expectations in the Tennessee offense.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

 

• Derrick Henry: The staff can say all the right things about working Henry to the bone, but we could see that tested right away if the Titans can’t keep things tight here. With no Taylor Lewan and on the road with a low team total, Henry falls into FLEX status to open the season.
• David Njoku: Njoku saw his team target share drop from 16.9 percent under Hue Jackson and Todd Haley to 13.8 percent over the final eight games with three or fewer receptions in six of those games. The Titans have ranked first, fourth, and fifth in the league in fantasy points allowed per target to opposing tight ends over the past three seasons. 
• Marcus Mariota: Chasing road quarterbacks attached to subterranean team totals is a tough outlook for fantasy. With no Lewan, protection could come into play as the Browns 19 sacks this preseason were second in the league.
• Corey Davis: He was a WR3 or better just five times in 2018 and now has significantly more target competition from his teammates entering 2019. Scheduled to lock up with Denzel Ward, it’s a good spot to leave him on benches for a “show me” game in hopes for a third-year breakout.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)

• Rashard Higgins: Higgins’s summer has picked up where it left off in 2018 when he caught 10-of-13 targets for 146 yards and a touchdown over the final two games of last season. He still runs into an overall volume issue, but is a deeper dart with WR3-plus upside while Antonio Callaway is suspended in a spot where we’re on the Browns’ wideouts as a unit. 
• Delanie Walker: The softest spots of the Browns’ pass coverage is at safety and linebackers not named Joe Schobert. The Browns have ranked 32nd, 28th, and 22nd in targets faced to opposing tight ends over the past three seasons, but Cleveland now has Steve Wilks running the defense. Over his past two seasons running an NFL defense, Wilks’s 2018 Arizona team ranked second in the league in targets faced to tight ends while his 2017 Carolina team was first in the league.
• Dion Lewis: He managed just 34 total touches over the final month to close the 2018 season. But the Titans were tied or played with a lead on 60.8 percent of their offensive snaps, which ranked 10th in the NFL over that span. With Henry returning from a preseason calf injury and the overall game script setting up more for Lewis’s skill set, he’s on the FLEX radar as a floor option.