Packers vs Bears: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

• Since the NFL started Week 1 on Thursday Nights in 2002, home teams have a 14-2 overall record and 10-2-4 record against the spread.
• Chicago covered a league-high 70.6 percent of their games in 2018 and was 6-1 against the spread as a home favorite.
• The Bears were also the only team in the NFL to cover in every division game in 2018.
• Opponents scored on just 28.6 percent of their possessions against the Bears last season, the lowest rate in the league.
• The Bears forced a turnover on 19.5 percent of their opponent’s possessions in 2018, the highest rate in the league.
• Green Bay turned the ball over on just 6.9 percent of their possessions in 2018, second in the league behind Seattle (6.3 percent).
• Davante Adams turned 23 red zone targets into 12 touchdowns catches (52.2 percent) while the rest of the league converted 31.8 percent of their red zone targets for scores. 
• Over his previous two seasons, Adams converted 14-of-42 (33.3 percent) red zone opportunities for scores.
• In eight starts against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards per pass attempt allowed, Mitchell Trubisky averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 22.6 fantasy points with a 19-to-6 touchdown to interception ratio.
• In his six starts against top-half defenses, Trubisky averaged just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 13.7 fantasy points per game with five touchdowns to six interceptions. 
• The Packers have ranked 25th, 31st, and 28th in passing points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks over the past three seasons.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Mitchell Trubisky: Trubisky took advantage of his spots against softer matchups in year one under Matt Nagy. He also played significantly better at home, throwing 19 of his 24 touchdown passes in Chicago while posting five top-12 scoring weeks in his eight home starts. We know the Packers have an improved pass rush, but their secondary still has questions and inexperience. Trubisky is the option from the Bears I would want to play for upside. The only issue with elevating Trubisky too highly as a full-fledged starting option is that none of his individual weapons have ceiling outlooks. But the sum of Trubisky’s parts is enough to turn in a productive outing and I believe he’s objectively in a good spot to be better here than the mid-QB2 option he was selected as.
• Davante Adams: He faced one of the toughest slates of any wideout a year ago and still was the most consistent fantasy receiver, posting double-digit fantasy points in all 15 of his games played. That included lines of 5-88-1 and 8-119-0 in his two meetings versus the Bears in 2018.
• Allen Robinson: Robinson accounted for 24.4 percent of the Chicago targets over his final eight games played. He managed lines of 4-61-0 and 3-54-0 on seven targets each game versus the Packers in 2018 and was the only Bears’ skill player to have at least 100-yards receiving combined in those contests.
• David Montgomery: He starts off as a home favorite, but the Packers ranked 10th in fantasy points allowed to backs a year ago before upgrading their front seven. With an unknown usage split still to be determined for the Bears’ backfield, Montgomery is more of an upside FLEX option until we see that this backfield is actually under his complete control.
• Aaron Jones: Opposing running backs scored just 26.1 percent of the fantasy points against the Bears, the lowest rate in the league. Jones has yet to play a full game against the Bears over his first two seasons and has managed 20 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown on the ground facing Chicago to date. The overall RB landscape and potential for increased use in the passing game keep the lights on as a floor-RB2 despite the matchup and being a road underdog, but this is not a week to cash in on Jones’s potential ceiling as a player.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has been the QB13 and the QB17 over his past two starts in Chicago with zero touchdown passes in either game. We know the Bears defense is going to regress some in 2019 and Rodgers was beyond careful with the football a year ago, but Rodgers still enters this matchup with a fringe QB1 outlook.
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He draws the least enticing individual matchups of the receivers here as he’ll see both Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara on the majority of his routes while not having the locked-in target volume Adams has. The Bears allowed just two top-12 scoring wideouts in 2018 and just six top-24 options in 2018.
• Jimmy Graham: He was the only tight end to rank in the top-12 in snap rate (74 percent), routes run rate (69.1 percent) and routes per game (34.3), but ranked 30th in target rate per route (15.1 percent). He managed just five receptions for 40 yards on nine targets combined in the two meetings between these teams in 2018.
• Trey Burton: We still aren’t completely clear on how healthy he is if he can play through a groin strain. You’re strictly chasing a touchdown here if you play him. Burton tallied five catches for 51 yards and a score on 13 targets in his two meetings with the Packers in 2018. If Burton is unable to play, Adam Shaheen becomes an option in TNF solo contests.
• Taylor Gabriel/Anthony Miller: Miller is coming back from a preseason ankle injury and no Bears player caught more than eight passes combined in the two matchups between these teams a year ago. Miller is the best bet of the group if pursuing a touchdown.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Geronimo Allison: Allison has the better individual outlook if chasing a Green Bay wideout other than Adams. Moving into the slot, Allison ran 53.8 percent of his routes this preseason inside while the Bears’ transition from Bryce Callahan to Buster Skrine inside is a downgrade. Skrine has allowed the third- and fifth-most receiving yards from the slot over the past two seasons.
• Tarik Cohen: He averaged 38 yards from scrimmage per game over four meetings against the Packers with a game-high of 52 total yards. Without having a great grasp on how his touches will be reduced — if at all — in this new Bears’ backfield, Cohen enters Week 1 as a floor-play FLEX in reception-based formats.