Broncos vs Raiders: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders Monday night game on September 7, 2019 at 10:20 pm ET.

• A league-high 80% of the games involving the Broncos in 2018 went under the game total.
• The past five games these teams have met has gone under the game total, with an average of 34.2 combined points scored in those meetings.
• Oakland allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 31.9 percent of their drives in 2018, the highest rate in the league.
• The Raiders allowed 10.8 red zone plays per game in 2018, the most in the league.
• 27.8 percent of Antonio Brown’s fantasy output in 2018 stemmed from touchdown production after averaging an 18.2% mark over the previous five seasons and 16.7 percent for his career.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Josh Jacobs: Projected to be the Raiders’ workhorse, Jacobs also has receiving chops as he averaged a gaudy 10.4 yards per target in the passing game for his career at Alabama. The volume should be here to support Jacobs as an RB2 option. Denver was 23rd in rushing points allowed (14.8).
• Broncos RBs: Phillip Lindsay played on 50% of the snaps with Joe Flacco this preseason while Royce Freeman was in on 37%. Freeman is the best bet for a touchdown, while Lindsay holds the upside. Both can turn an even split into production against an Oakland run defense that allowed 140.6 rushing yards per game (30th) in 2018. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Derek Carr: Carr has an average weekly finish of QB23 (10.7 fantasy points) in nine career games against the Broncos with no scoring week higher than QB17.
• Tyrell Williams: With Broncos topping their hand that Harris will shadow Brown, Williams will work outside on Isaac Yiadom. There could be a target bump by matchup and avoiding Harris, but Williams is still a longer play as a WR4-5.
• Joe Flacco: There’s a slice of intrigue here from the fact that Flacco wants to push the downfield and the Raiders gave up a ton of big plays in the passing game, as they ranked 32nd in explosive play rate allowed. The problem with Flacco is while he wants to go deep often, he hasn’t been very good at it. Flacco was only better than Josh Allen in deep ball success rate last season (32.2%) and was at only 31.6% in 2017. In the end, there are better streamers and QB2 options despite this being one of the better outlooks from a matchup stance for Flacco.
• Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders has already defied odds by being able to play Week 1 after suffering an Achilles injury late last season. He takes a step of faith to plug into a seasonal lineup right out of the gates as we don’t know if there are any limitations early in the season. He’ll draw Lamarcus Joyner, who is transitioning back to the position.  Sanders’s return removes the floor and upside from DaeSean Hamilton.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Darren Waller: Hyped over the summer, Waller gets a matchup against a Denver defense that was 26th in yards allowed per game (64.7) and 19th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends (13.1) in 2018. With Brown’s release and the wideouts not having great matchups, Waller should be the favored target in Week 1.
• Tyrell Williams: With the release of Antonio Brown, Williams becomes the lead wideout. His best NFL season for fantasy came when a depth chart was gutted and he was forced targets, so he gets a boost even if the targets are coming from a significantly worse quarterback and offensive situation. The problem here for ceiling potential is that he’ll now draw Chris Harris in coverage more than he would’ve with Brown leading this unit. With Brown gone, Ryan Grant and J.J. Nelson likely get the first bumps in playing time, but we’re mostly focused on Waller and Williams here for fantasy purposes.
• Courtland Sutton: He turned 10 targets into six catches and a touchdown when these teams played a year ago. His vertical skillset pairs with Flacco’s willingness to take shots downfield, but there’s a lot of surface area for inefficiency here. Sutton averaged 14.0 yards per depth of target and ranked 22nd of all wide receivers in air yards (1,176) last season, but the reliance on deep targets impacted his 50 percent catch rate. He is a boom-or-bust FLEX option.
• Noah Fant: He played on 25-of-30 snaps that Flacco was on the field for this preseason. Flacco ranked in the top-12 in tight end target market share every season from 2013-2018 while Oakland was 27th against the tight end position for fantasy. I prefer T.J. Hockenson of the dueling Iowa rookie tight ends if you’re throwing darts as a streamer, but Fant could have more upside in the Monday Night slate than assumed while Waller and Jared Cook will garner the attention.