Bengals vs Seahawks: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 1

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks Sunday afternoon game on September 6, 2019 at 4 pm ET.

• Russell Wilson scrambled on just 5.9% of his dropbacks in 2018 after doing so on 8.9% of his career dropbacks prior.
• 46.9% of Wilson’s 2018 fantasy output stemmed from passing touchdowns alone (the highest rate of his career) after 35.2% of his fantasy output to this point of his career.
• Wilson threw a touchdown per every 98.5 passing yards, the best rate in the league.
• The Bengals allowed opponents to score on 54.4% of their possessions on the road last season, the highest rate in the league.
• Seattle rushed for a league-high 175.5 yards per game at home in 2018.
• Cincinnati allowed 144.8 rushing yards per game on the road in 2018, 30th in the league.

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Chris Carson: Set to pick up where he left off to close 2018. Carson was a top-six scoring back in each of his last three games a year ago. The staff has removed any doubts that he’s the lead guy, well ahead of Rashaad Penny, and even showed signs of getting Carson more work in the passing game. 
• Tyler Lockett: With the cupboard behind Lockett nearly completely empty and D.K. Metcalf coming off preseason knee surgery, Lockett is set up to dominate the target share for the Seattle passing game. There’s a question if his raw volume has a potential cap to it given the potential game script and offensive approach, but the Bengals allowed the eighth-most points to wideouts from the slot in 2018. Lockett caught 26-of-29 targets from the slot in 2018 for 454 yards and five touchdowns and is set to run more routes there with Doug Baldwin gone.
• Tyler Boyd: He was better with A.J. Green on the field than without him in 2018, but that was largely playing through Jeff Driskel and a slow-paced offensive scheme. In the four games Boyd played without Green or in which Green left early in 2018 with Andy Dalton under center, Boyd was a WR3 or better each game with two top-10 scoring weeks. Boyd accounted for 26% of Dalton’s targets this preseason. With a potential play-volume spike under Zac Taylor, a lack of target competition with Green sidelined, being able to play inside and out, and potential game script, Boyd is a high-end WR2 option.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Russell Wilson: As huge home favorites, this game sets up well for the Seahawks to have a similar offensive approach as they had a year ago and remain in their run-first shell.  Behind Lockett, we also just don’t have much to work with in terms of turning targets into high-end production.
• Joe Mixon: He led the AFC in rushing a year ago with many of the issues cited as pitfalls this season. In those circumstances a year ago in 14 games played, he never had a game lower than an RB3 with nine as an RB2 or better. The floor was safe with even dire conditions and this season he should be used a pass catcher more and run more frequently out of formations that don’t dictate the defense loading the box against his subpar offensive line.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Andy Dalton: The Bengals’ implied team point total is only higher than Miami’s in Week 1. I do believe this offense is going to be better than people expect long-term, but on the road with such a low team total and no A.J. Green is not the aisle to shop in when hunting for QB points while the season is fresh.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Rashaad Penny: Penny himself should even run into double-digit touches here through spelling Carson and the potential game script while the overall matchup is favorable. He has one of the better objective outlooks for a backup back in Week 1.
• Bengals TEs: With Green sidelined, both C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Eifert should see increased roles to open the season. The issue is that we have another situation where both guys limit the other’s outlook. Eifert was playing just 49% of the offensive snaps prior to his injury last season, but was running a respectable 23.5 pass routes per game and running a pass route on 71% of his snaps. He should at minimum be a package player that is elevated by game script.